The President took the report from Blake without any comment and began to read.
TO: Backdog (Eyes Only)
TOP SECRET HUMIT/SATIT/RADIT/RECIT/WINTEL
one copy only — Destroy in compliance code A
FROM: Grounder NSA (source copy DIA intelligence report 96-1127)
RE: Analysis of Current Russian Affairs
REPORT:
1-) The Russians are in the third day of the largest military exercise conducted since 1989. Twenty regular army divisions are massed along the Ukrainian border, with three more held in reserve near Shakhty and Kursk. The 32nd Airborne (Black Hogs) along with two motorized rifle divisions (light) are currently deployed to Yelets. The entire IL-76 fleet is either on the ground in Yelets, or waiting to fly there from their bases in Saransk and Volgda.
Coinciding with this military exercise is an increase in the level and intensity of diplomatic activity. The Russians continue to press the Ukrainians for guarantees of future grain shipments. They claim to have evidence that the Ukrainian government intends to renege on last year’s grain contract. They also fear that the Ukrainians will cut off other shipments of agricultural commodities which the Russians need to feed their population.
Fedotov’s government has also accused the Ukraine of gross infractions upon the rights of the eleven million Russian citizens that are currently living in the Ukraine. Fedotov has made it clear that he considers the well-being of his citizens threatened, and that his government will take all means necessary to ensure the safety of its foreign-living citizens. In anticipation of war, approximately five hundred thousand Russians have left the Ukraine over the past seven days.
2-) There are unconfirmed reports of covert Spetsial’noye Naznacheniye (Spetznaz) activity taking place behind the Ukraine border. This includes acts of both espionage and sabotage against Ukrainian command, control, and communications (cube 3). At this time these reports are still unconfirmed, but considered extremely likely.
3-) Satellite imagery indicates that the Russians have fueled and armed as many as twelve SS-25 short-range nuclear missiles. The SS-25 can hit any target within the northern Ukraine.
4-) Yesterday marked the deadline imposed by president Fedotov for the former republics to respond to his invitation to join with Russia in the formation of another Union, to be named “The Union of Russian Republics.” As of last night, only three former republics (Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Belarus) have agreed to join the new Union.
5-) The Russian Ambassador to the United States, Evgenii Penza Yaroslavl, was recalled for consultation early this morning. He has refused to leave his post and return to Russia. Fedotov has just announced Yaroslavl’s dismissal and will name his replacement by early this afternoon.
6-) Once again, president Fedotov has refused the offer of both the United States and the United Nations to act as mediators in his dispute with the Ukraine. In addition, he has warned the Polish and French peacekeeping units that are presently along the Ukrainian border to leave the theater, or be considered hostile combatants. As of this writing (2100 Zulu, 1600 Local EST), Fedotov has ignored all attempts at communication, through both the American Ambassador to Russia as well as the newly established Direct Military Communication Lines (DMCL).
7-) The Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States has once again asked for guarantees of protection under the “Friends of NATO” agreement. He has also asked the United Nations Security Council to authorize preemptive air strikes against the Russian short-range nuclear missile sites, as well as their artillery and rocket positions along the Ukrainian border.
8-) REFORGER (preparations for the Defense of Allies in Europe) has begun. Air Force assets, including five fighter wings and three ground attack squadrons, are currently deploying to their forward operating locations in Germany, Italy, and England. The New Rapid Deployment Force (NRDF), as well as five regular army divisions are also enroute to the European theatre. All military family members and dependents living within any areas considered as “probable of action” have been ordered home. Civilian airline carriers are augmenting the evacuation of dependents from the zone.
ANALYSES:
1-) We expect the Russian forces to move across the Ukrainian border within the next 24–48 hours. The ground invasion will be preceded by an intensive air and artillery campaign to soften the Ukrainian defensive positions. This campaign could begin within the next twelve hours.
In the long run, Russian military forces are strong enough to defeat the Ukrainian forces, although victory is not necessarily guaranteed. DIA estimates indicate Fedotov could have control of the nation’s major cities and military installations within 30–45 days, if he is willing to commit to an aggressive frontal assault. Estimated losses to Russian forces under such a scenario are in the range of 25–32 %. (See DIA analysis 95-0914:45.)
2-) Fedotov is clearly considering the nuclear option as a way of retaining his forces. A quick, surgical nuclear strike against selected Ukrainian targets and troop positions may be the only way he can reduce his combat casualties to an acceptable level. The refueling and forward deployment of his SS-25s provide him with the short-range capability for just such an attack. If, as we speculate, Fedotov intends to initiate hostilities against the former Warsaw Pact nations, then the nuclear option may be the only way to retain his forces for such a western campaign.
3-) The Black Hogs and their associated light rifle divisions are slated against the Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. The Black Sea fleet has always been a thorn of contention between the Ukraine and Russia. After four years of intense negotiations, the two countries came up with what would seem to be a completely unworkable agreement. The treaty that was signed last spring not only invited future disagreements, it guaranteed them. We anticipate that the airborne Black Hogs will initiate their attack at Sevastopol and have control of the port city and the Black Sea fleet within seven to ten days of landing. They would then be in a position to push to the northeast, pinching the Ukrainian forces in a piercing maneuver.
4-) The nuclear breakout with the SS-18 and SS-24 missiles was clearly designed to send a message to the West. By bringing the long range SS-18/SS-24 missiles back on line, President Fedotov has given himself a long-range, precision-attack option against targets in the United States and western Europe that was unavailable to him before.
5-) The small peacekeeping forces that are in position to monitor the border between the Ukraine and Russia will not act as a deterrent against a Russian invasion.
6-) The dismissal of the Russian Ambassador and Fedotov’s quick action to replace him indicates an ever widening gulf between Fedotov’s right wing government and the small number of moderates who managed to survive Fedotov’s purge. With Yaroslavl’s departure, president Fedotov has silenced the last strong voice of moderation within the Kremlin.
7-) Although Fedotov’s claim that the Ukraine is trying to starve the Russian people has zero credibility, the argument has not surprisingly, been embraced by some world nations. Most notably, the North Koreans have offered to ship the Russians rice in exchange for nuclear materials to make additional weapons. China has also tendered offers of trade, as have Iraq, Iran, India, and Japan.
CONCLUSION:
President Fedotov is about to invade the Ukraine. He has made clear his intention to rebuild the former Soviet Union, and we expect that the southern republics will be next, followed closely by the Baltics and then Moldavia and Belorussia.
Fedotov is not intimidated by the West. He sees the conflict between Russia and the near-far republics as a purely internal affair, one in which neither the United States, nor any western country, has any interest or right to interfere. He is betting his future, as well as his military forces’, that the U.S. is not willing to become involved in a long and bloody conflict in order to defend a former Russian republic.