"Nonsense!"
"Let me give you facts .... Oh, Sire, you don't know how fortunate you are in your vassal Omi and that stupid brother who stole a thousand coins. Proof of my theory could be as follows: Buntaro-san, a trusted intimate, is sent to Zataki secretly. Why? Obviously to carry a new offer. What would tempt Zataki? The Kwanto - only that. So the offer is the Kwanto - in return for allegiance, once Toranaga is again President of the Council of Regents - a new one with the new mandate. He can afford to give it then, neh?" She waited, then went on painstakingly. "If he persuades Zataki to betray Ishido, he's a quarter of the way to the capital, Kyoto. How can the pact with his brother be cemented? Hostages! I heard this afternoon Lord Sudara, the Lady Genjiko, and their daughters and their son are going to visit their revered grandmother at Takato within ten days."
"All of them?"
"Yes. Next Toranaga gives the Anjin-san back his ship, as good as new, with all the cannon and powder, two hundred fanatics and all that money, surely enough to buy more barbarian mercenaries, wako scum out of Nagasaki. Why? To allow him to attack and take the Black Ship of the barbarians. No Black Ship, no money, and immense trouble for the Christian priests who control Kiyama, Onoshi, and all traitorous Christian daimyos."
"Toranaga'd never dare to do that! The Taiko tried and failed and he was all powerful. The barbarians will sail away in fury. We'll never trade again."
"Yes. If we did it. But this time it's barbarian against barbarian, neh? It's nothing to do with us. And say the Anjin-san attacks Nagasaki and puts it to the torch - isn't Harima now hostile, and Kiyama and Onoshi, and, because of them, most Kyushu daimyos? Say the Anjin-san burns a few of their other ports, harries their shipping, and at the same time-"
"And at the same time Toranaga launches Crimson Sky!" Yabu exploded.
"Yes. Oh yes," Yuriko agreed happily. "Doesn't this explain Toranaga? Doesn't this intrigue fit him like a skin? Isn't he doing what he's always done, just waiting like always, playing for time like always, a day here a day there and soon a month has passed and again he has an overwhelming force to sweep all opposition aside? He's gained almost a month since Zataki brought the summons to Yokose."
Yabu could feel his pulse roaring in his ears. "Then we're safe?"
"No, but we're not lost. I believe it's no surrender." She hesitated. "But everyone was deceived. Oh, he's so clever, neh? Everyone fooled like us. Until tonight. Omi gave me the clues. We all forgot Toranaga is a great Noh actor who can wear his own face as a mask if need be. Neh?"
Yabu tried to marshal his thoughts but could not. "But Ishido still has all Japan against us!"
"Yes. Less Zataki. And there must be other secret alliances. Toranaga and you can hold the passes until the time."
"Ishido has Osaka Castle and the Heir and the Taiko's wealth."
"Yes. But he'll stay skulking inside. Someone will betray him."
"What should I do?"
"The opposite to Toranaga. Let him do the waiting, you must force the pace.
"How?"
"The first thing, Sire, is this: Toranaga's forgotten the one thing you noticed this afternoon. The Tsukku-san's total fury. Why? Because the Anjin-san threatens the Christian future, neh? So you've got to put the Anjin-san under your protection at once, because those priests or their puppets will murder him within hours. Next: The Anjin-san needs you to protect and guide him, to help him get his new crew at Nagasaki. Without you and your men he has to fail. Without him and his ship and his cannon and more barbarians, Nagasaki won't burn, and that must happen or Kiyama, Onoshi, and Harima and the filthy priests won't be distracted enough to temporarily withdraw their support from Ishido. Meanwhile, Toranaga, now miraculously supported by Zataki and his fanatics, with you leading the Musket Regiment, sweeps through the Shinano passes down to the Kyota plains."
"Yes. Yes, you are right, Yuriko-chan! It has to be that way. Oh, you are so clever, so wise!"
"Wisdom and Luck are no good without the means to put a plan into effect, Sire. You alone can do that - you're the leader, the fighter, the battle-general that Toranaga must have. You must see him tonight."
"I can't go to Toranaga and tell him I've seen through his ruse, neh?"
"No, but you'll beg him to allow you to go with the Anjin-san, that you must leave at once. We can think of a plausible reason."
"But if the Anjin-san attacks Nagasaki and the Black Ship, won't they stop trading and sail away?"
"Yes. Possibly. But that's next year. By next year Toranaga will be a Regent, President of the Regents. And you his commander-in-chief. " Yabu came down from the clouds. "No," he said firmly. "Once he has power he'll order me to commit seppuku."
"Long before that you will have the Kwanto."
His eyes blinked. "How?"
"Toranaga will never actually give his half brother the Kwanto. Zataki's a perpetual threat. Zataki's a wild man, pridefilled, neh? It will be so easy for Toranaga to maneuver Zataki into begging for the foremost place in the battle. If Zataki doesn't get killed... perhaps a stray bullet or arrow? Probably a bullet. You must lead the Musket Regiment in the battle, Sire."
"Why shouldn't I receive a stray bullet equally?"
"You may, Sire. But you're not Toranaga's kinsman and therefore no threat to his power. You will become his most devoted vassal. He needs fighting generals. You'll earn the Kwanto, and that should be your only goal. He'll give it to you when Ishido's betrayed because he'll take Osaka for himself."
"Vassal? But you said to wait and soon I'd nev-"
"Now I counsel you to support him with all your strength. Not to follow his orders blindly like old Iron Fist, but cleverly. Don't forget, Yabu-chan, during battle, as in any battle, soldiers make mistakes, stray bullets do happen. So long as you lead the Regiment, you can choose, too - any time, neh?"
"Yes," he said, awed by her.
"Remember, Toranaga's worth following. He's Minowara, Ishido's a peasant. Ishido's the fool. I can see that now. Ishido should be hammering at the gates of Odawara right now, rain or no rains. Didn't Omi-san say that months ago too? Isn't Odawara undermanned? Isn't Toranaga isolated?"
Yabu pounded his fist on the floor with delight. "Then it's war after all! How clever you are to have seen through him! Ah, so he's been playing the fox all the time, neh?"
"Yes," she said, greatly satisfied.
Mariko had come to the same astonishing conclusion, though not from all the same facts. Toranaga must be pretending, playing a secret game, she reasoned. That's the only possible explanation for his incredible conduct giving the Anjin-san the ship, the money, all the cannon, and freedom in front of Tsukku-san. Now the Anjin-san will absolutely go against the Black Ship. He will take it, and threaten the one next year, and therefore he'll maul the Holy Church terribly and force the Holy Fathers to compel Kiyama and Onoshi to betray Ishido....
But why? If that's true, she thought, perplexed, and Toranaga's considering such a long-range plan, then of course he can't go to Osaka and bow before Ishido, neh? He must .... Ah! What about today's delay that Hiro-matsu persuaded Toranaga to make? Oh, Madonna on high, Toranaga never intended to surrender! It's all a trick.
Why? To gain time.
To accomplish what? To wait and weave a thousand more tricks, and it doesn't matter what, only that Toranaga's once more what he always was, the almighty puppeteer.
How long before Ishido's impatience shatters and he raises the battle standard and moves against us? One month - at the most two. No more. So by the ninth month of this Fifth Year of Keicho, the battle for the Kwanto begins!
But what's Toranaga gained in two months? I don't know - I only know that now my son has a chance to inherit his ten thousand koku, and to live and breed, and that now perhaps my father's line will not perish from the earth.