If Israel Strikes Iran
AS THIS book goes to press the air is rife with speculation as to whether Israel will strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. It seems increasingly apparent that President Obama will not do so, unless one of two contingencies comes to pass: Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz, or Iran attacks America—either its interests abroad or the American homeland. Israel clearly understands that it is alone.
In an address to the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu crisply summed up the absurdity of those questioning Iran’s commitment to build a nuclear weapon, noting that underground facilities and ICBMs are not designed to deliver medical isotopes:
The Jewish state will not allow those seeking our destruction to possess the means to achieve that goal. A nuclear-armed Iran must be stopped. Amazingly, some people refuse to acknowledge that Iran’s goal is to develop nuclear weapons. You see, Iran claims that it’s enriching uranium to develop medical research. Yeah, right. A country that builds underground nuclear facilities, develops intercontinental ballistic missiles, manufactures thousands of centrifuges, and absorbs crippling sanctions—is doing all that in order to advance… medical research. So you see, when that Iranian ICBM is flying through the air to a location near you, you’ve got nothing to worry about. It’s only carrying medical isotopes.
The prime minster put his position plainly: “As prime minister of Israel, I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation.”
As to the likelihood of Iranian retaliation, perhaps ironically the severe response that Iran’s regime threatens is more likely if Israel fails than if Israel succeeds. In the Mideast, an adversary’s strength is grudgingly respected, while weakness earns contempt and incites retaliatory violence.
The comparative histories of powers that choose to disarm versus those that scorn disarmament underscore the Tenth Lesson of nuclear-age history: DISARMING HOSTILE POWERS CANNOT BE DONE BY NEGOTIATIONS ALONE.
13.
INVITATION TO STRIKE: THE SMALL POWER’S NUCLEAR EQUALIZER
Should significant parts of the electrical power infrastructure be lost for any substantial period of time… many people may ultimately die for lack of the basic elements necessary to sustain life in dense urban and suburban communities….
The Federal Government does not today have sufficiently robust capabilities for reliably assessing and managing EMP threats.
A WORST-CASE NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE SMALL-POWER ATTACK SCENARIO is not a terrorist nuke exploding in a big American city. Such an attack would be a catastrophic event, killing hundreds of thousands and erasing trillions of dollars in economic value, while undermining social cohesion and plunging the nation—and the world—into unprecedented crisis.
But there is a more devastating catastrophe, one that could end America’s status as a world power: an esoteric phenomenon generated by a nuclear explosion, known as “electromagnetic pulse” (EMP). If an adversary detonated a single nuclear warhead over the country’s midpoint at high altitude, the explosion would generate a series of powerful pulses that would break through surge protectors. In a worst case it could take down all or nearly all of America’s electric grid and communications fabric. In a few days, as backup power ran out, America would be returned to its energy status of 1875, with several times as many people to support. The Eleventh Lesson of nuclear-age history, then, is this: NEVER ALLOW SINGLE OR LOW-NUMBER POINTS OF CATASTROPHIC VULNERABILITY.
Historical and Scientific Background
SHOULD AN EMP attack not only disable America’s power grid but also, in parallel attacks, disable the grids of allies who might aid us, in a worst case an estimated 90 percent of Americans could perish within one year—mostly from starvation and disease. America could never recover, as William Fortschen vividly describes in his 2009 novel, One Second After.
Some scientists, among them physicist Howard Hayden, have sharply questioned the total-collapse scenario. They point to relatively limited damage suffered in early EMP incidents. Even if they are right, it does not take an attack of worst-case outcome to inflict horrific casualties and societal damage. Suppose that only 1 percent of Americans lose all vital life services for a year. In such event some 3 million people might perish within that period. That is roughly twice the 1.34 million total U.S. fatalities in all American wars from 1775 to mid-2012.
Knowledge of EMP dates back to the first nuclear explosion. Enrico Fermi shielded all nearby electronics before the Trinity test in 1945 in expectation of an electromagnetic pulse. When it came, it still knocked out data, despite the shielding. But the phenomenon was at first highly localized and dwarfed by blast, heat, and lethal radiation effects, and nuclear explosions in the 17 years afterwards were either surface bursts, like Trinity, or low-altitude air bursts, like Little Boy and Fat Man.
High-altitude EMP first revealed its surprising destructive potential in 1962, when the U.S. detonated its Starfish Prime 1.4 megaton H-bomb 250 miles over Johnston Island in the Pacific Ocean. The explosion occurred in the intense bands of radiation in the ionosphere known as the Van Allen radiation belts. Discovered by James Van Allen (from data collected by America’s first successful satellite, Explorer I, launched in 1958), the belts interact with EMP and amplify its intensity. The pulse of electromagnetic energy from the test reached Honolulu, 900 miles to the east, and knocked out 300 streetlights, a telephone microwave radio link, and lots of burglar alarms.
Russia conducted atmospheric tests over land, its leaders secure in the knowledge that its citizens dared not protest. Russian Test 184, part of a series of detonations over Kazakhstan later in 1962 called the “K Project,” knocked out a 625-mile underground electric power line, interfered with diesel generators, and started some electrical fires in damaged equipment. At 300 kilotons yield, Test 184 was one-fifth the power of Starfish Prime; it also was detonated at just over 70 miles up, less than one-third the American test’s altitude. EMP effects are not overly sensitive to explosive yield, according to EMP expert Dr. William Graham, who chaired the congressional EMP panel. But effects are far more intense over land, because EMP perturbs the Earth’s magnetic field, which is far stronger over land than water. The lower altitude of the Russian test limited EMP radius. But having been detonated over land, the Russian test caught more ground installations within reach of its footprint than did Starfish Prime.
A chain of events causes EMP. First come the intense gamma emissions from the fissioning atoms of the bomb. These ionize the air, knocking electrons out of atoms. When the electrons hit the earth’s magnetic field, it knocks them sideways, and it is this interaction that generates the electromagnetic pulse.
Three successive, different pulses generate the EMP effect: E1 is the superfast high-voltage pulse that bypasses surge protectors (which are designed to stop pulses that build up less rapidly) and “fries” all affected electronics. E2 is akin to the electromagnetic charge emitted as lightning strikes. This pulse is low frequency and ordinarily would not get past surge protectors, except that if the first pulse has fried the protective equipment, then the second pulse, like a burglar who enters an open door, gets in. The third pulse, E3, is akin to the geomagnetic storms generated by solar flares. This pulse is the Earth’s magnetic field being disturbed by the bomb, then settling back to normal—an extremely low frequency pulse that lasts tens, even hundreds of seconds. Though weak, because of its duration this third pulse builds up enough strength to knock out large components like electric grid power transformers, and reaches deep into the ground.