Matt smiled thinly and said, “Well, for example, Japan has what we call a population inversion. They have more old people than young people, and the gap is growing. Meanwhile, they’ve got this economy that needs X number of people to keep it running. Today, their unemployment rate is just over one percent. So, we’ve got a labor shortage in the world’s fastest-growing economy. What are they going to do, farm out their jobs and markets to other countries that need the work? Takishi did just that last year with the China agreement.”
“Why not? We do it with Mexico and China?” Rathburn said. The political appointee hid his sudden alarm that Matt knew his friend’s name. How does he know who Takishi is?
“Yes, sir, we do it because it makes short-term economic sense in our almost purely capitalist system. To the Japanese, who have more of a state-directed capitalism and a circular vision of life instead of the Western linear view, to seek labor outside of the country would be anathema; which makes Takishi’s move so … interesting. For them it is like exporting their success while devaluing their own net worth. You’re right, in many cases the U.S. has done exactly that with the call centers in India and Pakistan, for example.”
Rathburn nodded.
“So then, add that to the fact that we have gotten protectionist and practically reduced their markets by 10 percent in the last year. The European Community has done the same thing, and they’ve only started. Nearly 60 percent of Japanese exports head either to the EC countries or the U.S. Chop that number in half and Japan loses one-third of its trade. We’ve already decided that they can’t sustain their economy with current labor projections. So that’s two strikes against their economy already. Remember, the Japanese have staked their entire future on their economic prowess. So in a sense, their security environment revolves first around the economy, then goes to the basics of the vulnerability of their geographic positioning.”
The plane ran into a brief period of turbulence. Matt looked up at the ceiling of the airplane, sensing the motion with his body. Convinced it was nothing unusual, he looked back at Rathburn and proceeded.
“Now we’ve almost got something to think about,” Matt said, grabbing the matchbook out of the glass ashtray on the table. The flimsy white cardboard book had the Department of Defense symbol on it, an eagle with its head turned and claws holding three arrows. He pushed up his shirtsleeves over his thick forearms and decided how to demon-strate his newfound logic.
“This represents the labor shortage,” he said sliding the matchstick across the table toward Rathburn. “This is the fall in trade from U.S. and EC protectionism.” He dropped both sticks into the ashtray.
“Now let’s talk energy policy. Japan has reduced its dependence on foreign oil much better than most other countries by pursuing alternative means of energy. They’ve got everything ranging from geothermal to windmills to nuclear power. They have big plans to build twenty or so more new nuclear plants, adding to the fifty they already have. But every time a shovel hits the ground, students and radicals are protesting and blocking construction. Imagine how we’d feel with sixty nuclear plants in California.”
“Not a bad idea.” Rathburn smiled, the first indication of connection.
“Agreed.” Matt smiled in return. “The point is that they have no oil or natural gas deposits, and they cannot expect their energy needs to keep pace with their economic expansion. So there’s another match. In fact, I’ll give that issue two matches,” he said, tossing a third and a fourth stick to the pile with a confident flick of the wrist.
“We’ve already mentioned that the U.S. is almost solely focused on the Middle East, reducing its security presence in the Pacific Rim. This has a proportional effect on Japan’s perception of its own security. The more we pull back,” he said emphatically, “the more insecure they feel. More sulfur.” He dropped a fifth match into the ashtray.
“Now we can count, if you want to, all of the intangible and esoteric stuff like the fact that they are a strictly closed Confucian society with almost a purely homogenous people. Confucianism operates on three levels. First, Confucian societies have a strong sense of identity with their heritage and ancestry. Second, Confucianism breeds a sense of exclusivity. That is, it produces the closed Japanese society that only someone born in Japan to a Japanese family can belong to. In essence, very racist. Third, Confucianism stresses that the family is the critical unit of a society and that government should simply be an extension of that family. This reinforces the exclusivity of the society and also produces a we-they type of mentality. That equals nationalism. Another match.
“They’ve been putting up with our bullshit since the end of World War II. Americans wrote their constitution and set up their government. We have a base or two on their land. While ninety nine percent of American troops are the best our nation has to offer, there’s always that one percent of bad apples who have committed crimes against the Japanese. I think there was a rape in Okinawa not too long ago. So, the wounded pride of having to kowtow to the Americans and the distorted perception created by the few bad apples calls for a seventh match.” It fell from his fingers, landing in the ashtray.
“Taiwan was formerly called Formosa before it was anted to China in the post — World War II settlement. It had belonged to the Japanese for fifty years before that. They bargained with the Russians for the Kuriles to their north. Imagine how they feel about something like Formosa to their south. Terri-torial claims,” he said bluntly, dramatically dropping an eighth match into the pile.
“So we’ve got a Japan poised for economic downturn, minus its former security umbrella, with no real threat from Russia, and with some territorial disputes. Its traditional enemies are challenging Japan on the economic level. Korea’s pursuit of markets is very aggressive, and China is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla about to rip free from its chains. Sir, economic competition is just another form of warfare, only on a lower level. Competition is competition. So, traditional enemies and an unwillingness to mediate historical differences calls for another match.”
Matt looked at Rathburn whose eyes were fixed on his. He seemed uncomfortable, almost nervous.
“Then, there is the idea of Henka. It’s a Japanese process of accepting new, radically different positions. Simply put, it formalizes new decisions that are dramatic departures from old positions. It allows them to change their minds without having to explain why. It’s a Japanese social tradition. It allows them to completely shift social or personal direction without any forewarning. That accounts for the ease with which they moved from a militaristic society to a democratic one. Similarly, it accounts for the shift from a Samurai society to the Tokugawa era.”
Matt looked at Rathburn, and said, “Governments can ‘do’ Henka and people can ‘do’ Henka. The only constant in Henka is that it always serves the common Japanese good.”
He dropped the last match. The sticks crossed in the ashtray, looking like a pile of bones.
“So that is ten, I believe. The only question is, Will there be a spark? Or is it already smoldering and we just don’t see it,” he asked himself, thinking, then pulling a match out of the book and striking it. The flame burned eerily bright in the darkened cabin of the aircraft as he held the match above the ashtray.
“Do they seek to shed the implications that Western thought set their society on the correct path?”
“Thought you didn’t know anything?”
“I know some stuff,” Matt said.