“Any geographical prevalence?”
“N — no, not really, not overall, anyway. While the incidents remain relatively evenly distributed on the map over the entire eighteen months, the past six months showed more North American occurrences, and their severity has increased on average.”
“How do you measure that?” Seiden asked.
“I classified all incidents in one of three categories. They can be near-routine incidents, such as flight intercepts, interference with normal civilian operations, or incursions into our Air Defense Identification Zone. Then they could be serious incidents with escalation risk, such as the Russian aircraft that approached the Danish island of Bornholm in what appeared to be an attack, then broke off at the last minute. Finally, they could be high-risk incidents, such as the Russian submarine incursion into Swedish territorial waters, or the Alaska missile lock incident last month.”
“And how do they break out by severity, the incident counts?”
She opened the brief to make sure her memory didn’t fail her at the wrong moment.
“Umm… there were fourteen high-risk incidents, twenty-one serious with escalation risk, and twenty-seven near-routine incidents.” She pushed the brief over the desk, so the director could read the numbers from the table.
He looked at the page for a few seconds, then deepened his frown.
“But that’s not it, sir,” she added, pulling the brief from under his hand. “This is what’s more interesting,” she said, flipping a couple of pages and showing Seiden an image of the world map with colorful pins on it. “I’ve colored the oldest incidents blue, the six-to-twelve months old in purple, and the most recent ones in red. What do you see?”
Seiden looked at her for a second, surprised by her unusual question. She wanted to kick herself… it was unprofessional, rude even to question a high-ranking executive as if he was a child.
Before she could figure out if she should apologize or just fix her blunder, he answered.
“Yes, that is interesting. The red dots are mostly near our borders, with just a couple elsewhere, just enough to keep things confusing. So what are you saying?”
“I am saying things are definitely escalating. The same worrisome distribution remains true from the incident severity point of view, where we see the high-risk incidents clustering more and more near our borders, near NORAD space.”
Seiden remained silent for a minute, staring pensively at the colorful map that spelled trouble.
“We need to inform USNORTHCOM about this. Let’s talk threat scenarios,” he said, rubbing his forehead forcefully.
“In my previous report, I was listing three possible threat scenarios. The most plausible at first sight is that they’re testing our response. The second one is that they’re keeping the world busy while they’re preparing a nuclear strike and the commencement of World War III. Finally, the third, and least plausible considering President Abramovich’s psychology, is that they’re provoking us, our allies, so we end up being the ones who push one button or another and start World War III.”
“Why do you think the third scenario is not that plausible?” Seiden asked.
“Abramovich, well, he’s a pure sociopath on a mission of revenge over Crimea and what he perceives as a colossal offense brought to Russia by the West, by America. This particular psychology is incompatible with caring what the world has to say about who started the war. He wouldn’t care… he doesn’t.” Henri stopped for a few seconds, collecting her thoughts, to make sure she wasn’t omitting anything. “He is actively working to restore Russia to its pre-glasnost position of power,” she continued. “But I don’t think that his strategy is contradicting either of the first two scenarios.”
Seiden took a sip from a bottle of sparkling water, then took his time to screw the cap back on.
“If you were to pick one of these scenarios to prepare response strategies for, which one would you choose?” Seiden asked, suddenly looking at her with focused, intent eyes. “Do you maintain your former assessment, does the nuclear scenario still seem more plausible to you?”
“Y — yes,” she responded, not blinking under the director’s scrutinizing gaze, just letting a split moment of hesitation show.
“Why hesitate? What’s on your mind?”
“Well, sir, you might think I’m crazy,” she blurted out, “but even the nuclear scenario seems too clean, too easy for Abramovich at this time.”
“Too easy? How the hell can nuclear war be too easy?” Seiden said, letting his voice reflect his frustration. He stood and started pacing the room.
A little flustered by his unusually emotional response, Henri tried to formulate an answer that could make sense to other people, not just in her own mind.
“You assigned a task force under my command, sir,” she explained. “I’ve engaged the team in several areas. I had an analyst focus on Russian uranium ore extraction and potential arsenal build-ups. Another one was tasked to monitor Russian ICBM sites and any related activities. The field operative you deployed came back with preliminary findings into the research facility being built near Moscow — it’s gonna be a huge data processing center, storing massive amounts of data and a basement full of computing capabilities, 350,000 square feet. Finally, I had a senior analyst look into the military training, simulation exercises, and readiness.”
“And?” Seiden asked impatiently.
“Well, their activities sort of line up, more like they line up with two different strategies. One,” she held up one finger, “they are most definitely getting ready to engage data in a new, unprecedented way. That could mean cyber warfare or increased foreign intelligence activities. Two,” Henri’s second finger went up, “if they’re looking at more traditional warfare, including nuclear, they are definitely getting ready, but not in a massive way.”
“What are you trying to say, Henri?” Seiden made a visible effort to calm down and took a seat back in his leather chair.
“We need to get back to Abramovich’s psychology and state of mind to understand this,” Henri said almost apologetically. He nodded, and she continued, “OK, we’ve established Abramovich is a pure narcissistic sociopath who will stop at nothing. Correct?”
Seiden nodded again.
“But what does that mean? What does it feel like to be Abramovich and to have the world tell you what you can and cannot do and insult you all over the news channels for Crimea, for the ethics of your policy, and so on?”
Seiden silently encouraged her to continue, intrigued by her approach to the point where his frown almost disappeared.
“He’s in pain, sir, that’s what that means,” she said, gesturing with her hands to underline the simplicity of this fact. “He’s in immense, excruciating psychological pain, and has been ever since Crimea. He’s lost so much because of what the world thought of his actions in Crimea — cash flow, the respect of other world leaders, the intoxicating devotion of his oligarchs. He’s hurting so badly he can’t think of anything else but how to make us all pay for it, painfully, slowly, indefinitely, and beyond repair. From his perspective, we are torturing him and he’s dying to get even and then some. In his mind, he’s screaming, How could you do this to me?”
“What are you trying to tell me, Henri?” Seiden asked again, his voice only slightly stronger than a whisper.
She hesitated a little, then said, “Dropping a few nukes on us would be too easy in his mind. We’d just retaliate; millions would die on both sides of this war. He needs much more than that… he needs us helpless at his mercy, begging for his help. This is the only scenario that would heal Abramovich’s pain and restore his blemished image of greatness, as he perceives it.”