The other briefer, Martha, jumped in. “Our approximation is that the People’s Liberation Army has actually gotten smaller over the past twenty years or so, down from three million on active duty. And Mark, you were interested in their army air forces?”
Mark was checking out Jeanie and frankly was distracted. He attempted to say out loud, “Yes,” but it wasn’t very convincing.
“We estimate the army air forces to be at 398,000 strong. They also still section off the country up into Theater Commands, with simple names such as North, West, and so on. They modeled it off our United States Combatant Command system. It’s post-1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act, which I’ve heard is ready to change with new proposals in the Senate Armed Services Committee, but that’s another brief.”
Ford’s ears perked up when the numbers sank in. “Hey, Martha. I’m Ford Stevens. What are they doing toward modernization? New stuff. Next-generation aircraft or subs, systems like that?”
“Next slide, please, Robert. Thank you. Hi Ford, yes, you can see that here,” Martha pointed at the screen. “Their navy is doing well with getting updated, pouring money into new subs. The army air force, at about 30 percent modernization, is on the right track over the past five years or so. Their newer aircraft in the fourth-generation Su-27, Su-30, and Su-35, are top of the line. I’m talking new-Cadillac aircraft. New-car smell. RAND Corporation, Jane’s, and CSIS, which is where some of these numbers are from, have been publishing for a while that the Chinese are on a spending spree. Even their J-11 is past fourth generation. Since about 2002 or so, they have been purchasing new, modern fighters by the hundreds. Probably half their force is now updated. Naval aircraft numbers are on the rise, too.”
Ford raised his eyebrows in amazement. I thought the yuan was in trouble? Where are they getting all this money? he asked himself. He was surprised at their ability to purchase such new and modern equipment for a fleet of aircraft, not just a few stealth planes.
“Hello Martha, I’m Robert. You mentioned naval. Can you elaborate some more on that?”
“Ha. Plenty going on there. Yup. Their defensive boundary is in complete sight for the world to see throughout the artificial islands in the South China Sea. Their vessels are on the upgrade track, especially their antiship cruise missiles. Ford, like you asked before, they are pouring money into this area as well. We understand them, as does the Congressional Research Service, to be yanking up their submarine fleet from… sixty-two to about seventy-eight by the year 2020. They are also jamming out additional aircraft carriers and using the Liaoning for training. We know this data from — Paul… next slide, please. No, next one. Sorry. There it is. We know this data from testimony from an expert on China’s navy before Congress back in July 2015. Complete open source.”
“Wow. Thanks, Martha. Air force. Anything else to add that you may have missed from earlier?” Robert asked.
“Sure. Those flyer guys. No question, they are speedily catching up or bypassing western air forces across a broad scale of capabilities. These guys have it together on both defense and offense. But we do have the huge advantage over their pilots due to our quality training and simulators. Ours and coalition forces are really top notch, no matter how you view it. Can’t be beat,” Martha said.
Paul began nodding. “Can’t forget that we have plenty of issues, though. Postwar, reducing budgets and sequestration, our US flight time and spare parts stink. Take a look at Marine Corps air. High mishaps lately, terrible readiness, guys not flying enough. Struggling to offer pilot bonuses, and when they do, not much of a take rate. Also, look at the gigantic reduction in US Air Force pilots to the major airlines. Major, major problem at the Pentagon,” Paul said.
Ford spoke up. “Agree. Airlines are grabbing guys from all the airframes. No deployments or nonflying work there with pretty good salaries. Even larger cash bonuses weren’t keeping some pilots in the military cockpit.” There was silence in the room. It was tough for the others to comprehend because they didn’t fly, but Ford felt good mentioning it.
The elephant in the room, though, was that no one was asking about stealth. Mark just couldn’t wait any longer. “How about stealth? What do they have?” Mark said.
“Yes to fighters, which we discussed already. Rumors are they built bombers. Titled… what, Paul, an H-18 and H-20? And an H-18 stealth jet, but no one has seen it. There is no evidence it was built, test flown, or is operational. So, to answer your question, nothing confirmed.”
Calvin continued to listen and remained silent. Paul stood with full confidence, as he was taught years ago at West Point, awaiting additional questions from one of the most powerful men in the organization.
“And, sir, the ground force. They are still the largest in the world, but have many mobility problems,” he said, speaking with authority. “They don’t have enough helicopter transportation and rely on diesel trains to get around their country. Ground focus is still to deter border countries,” Paul said.
Mr. Burns was now making some notes on the legal pad in his leather portfolio, writing down the name Mike Klubb with a question mark. “How about rockets… cyber… and let’s see here. Space? Anything there?”
Martha gently nodded her head in agreement. “Yes, I believe Mike Klubb can really drill down for you on this, but we do know they are developing and testing some new classes and versions of offensive missiles. They are also forming other missile units, updating older missile systems, and developing some tactics to counter ballistic missile defenses. You may remember all too well that China has very operational intercontinental ballistic missiles, which of course, can carry nuclear payloads. We think China is a nuclear triad power.”
“Sure, sure. What are the open-source analysts saying? Future?” Calvin asked.
“Yes, sir.” Now Martha cleared her throat. “We, along with the Congressional Research Service, think that the PLA’s Rocket Force is their bread and butter to the PLA’s emerging capacity… to support freedom-of-sea operations in the Asia-Pacific region, but also threaten all the regional powers.”
“Well, that’s reassuring, Martha,” Mr. Burns commented. “The Spratly Islands.”
“Again, Mike Klubb can come over and give you specifics on that. In answering the latter part of your question, I can tell you that on the space front, there is nothing new you haven’t heard before. Status of their space forces still show seventy satellites. Usual uses, like communications, navigation, positioning and timing, meteorology, and electronic and signals intelligence. Best of all, and in our favor, China still uses our GPS technology regularly.” Martha nodded to her partner. “And finally, Paul, next slide. Here it is, they still have directed-energy weapons, satellite jammers, and antisatellite missiles.”
Ford was always bothered with China and cyber, and he figured Martha and Paul were saving the best for last, so to speak. After all, Ford did spend years there as a kid, and his best friend Wu Lee was from China, but it left him uneasy. He always felt cyber was a true intrusion into his personal space and liberties because computers kept personal items. Emails with family, video chat with Emily, surfing the net to look at new options on cars, and reading the news. He hated that the Chinese may be able to see everything he was doing. And everything the US was doing. “How about cyber? You left that out.”
Paul perked up. “Oh, no, Ford. We have that. Super Bowl Halftime Show status. Last slides in the deck. This is a hot topic. As you know, the president and secretary of defense are making decisions on expanding US Cyber Command and a Space Force. Cyber is just too big to keep it as is. Too many cyber roles between the interagency.”