He popped in to Number Ten this evening, long after Humphrey had gone home. [6 pm Ed.] I arranged with the security people that he should be allowed in through the back door, as theres always press watching the front.
He began by asking me if I believed in the nuclear deterrent.
Yes, I said.
Why? he asked.
I didnt quite know what to say. I mean, everyone believes in the nuclear deterrent. I asked him to repeat his question.
Why? he asked again.
Because it deters, I replied, weakly.
Whom?
Id never before met anyone who spoke in such short sentences. You never find them in politics, nor in academic life either. But I couldnt see quite what he was driving at.
I beg your pardon? I asked.
Whom? he asked again. He could see I didnt understand. He clarified his question. Whom does it deter?
It seemed obvious to me. The Russians. From attacking us.
Why? There it was again, that irritating little word. Why what? I played for time. I beg your pardon? I asked.
Why?
Why does the deterrent deter the Russians from attacking us, thats what he was asking. Because, I replied firmly, they know that if they launch an attack Id press the button.
You would? He sounded surprised.
Well I hesitated, wouldnt I?
Well would you?
In the last resort, yes. Definitely. I thought again. At least I think I definitely would.
His questions continued relentlessly. I had to think carefully. [Hacker was out of practice at this Ed.]
And what is the last resort?
If the Russians invade Western Europe. That at least seemed quite obvious.
Professor Rosenblum smiled. But you would only have twelve hours to decide. So the last resort is also the first response, is that what youre saying?
Was that what I was saying? It seemed crazy.
The Chief Scientific Adviser stared at me critically. Well, you dont need to worry.Why should the Russians try to annex the whole of Europe? They cant even control Afghanistan. He shook his head. No. If they try anything it will be salami tactics.
[Salami tactics was the description customarily given to slice by slice manoeuvres, i.e. not a full scale invasion of the West, but the annexation of one small piece at a time. More often than not, the first steps would not be annexation of land but small treaty infringements, road closures, etc. Ed.]
Rosenblum stood up. He paced enthusiastically up and down my living-room, a glass of orange juice in hand, expounding an assortment of defence scenarios. First, he postulated riots in West Berlin, with buildings in flames, and the East German fire brigade crossing the border to help. He stopped pacing, stared at me, and asked me if Id press the button in such circumstances.
Obviously the answer was no. Rosenblum nodded. He seemed to agree. Then he asked me if Id press the button if the East German police came with the fire brigade. Again I shook my head. How could I start a nuclear war because of such a small territorial infringement?
Rosenblum started pacing again. A little smile was now visible around the corners of his mouth. Suppose the East Germans send some troops. Then more troops -- just for riot control, they say. And then the East German troops are replaced by Russian troops. You press the button?
Russian troops replacing East German troops in West Berlin? Would I start a nuclear war? I dont see how I could. I shook my head again.
The Chief Scientific Advisor smiled, and suggested cheerfully that the next slice would be that the Russian troops dont go. They would be invited to stay, to support the civilian administration. Then the civilian administration might close the roads and Tempelhof Airport. West Berlin would now be cut off. [West Berlin was an island of the West German Federal Republic, sixty miles inside the border of the German Democratic Republic. Democratic, in this context, naturally means communist Ed.] Would I now press the button? he enquired.
I didnt know. I told him I needed time to think.
You have twelve hours! he barked.
I felt totally panicked. Then I reminded myself, and him, that he was inventing all this, and I relaxed.
He shrugged. You are Prime Minister today. The phone might ring now, from NATO Headquarters.
The phone rang! It shook me to the core. Bernard hurried across my study and answered it. Hello. Yes? He turned to me. NATO Headquarters, Prime Minister.
Was a nightmare coming true? Then Bernard went on. Are you willing to address NATOs annual conference in April?
I thought I was -- but by then I was no longer sure of anything. I couldnt reply.
Yes, said Bernard into the phone, and rang off.
Professor Rosenblum turned to me again. Right, he began. Scenario Two. Russian army manoeuvres take them accidentally on purpose across the West German frontier is that the last resort?
No, I replied. It didnt seem to be.
All right, he continued with great enthusiasm. Scenario Three. Suppose the Russians have invaded and occupied West Germany, Belgium, Holland and France. Suppose their tanks and troops have reached the English Channel. Suppose they are poised for an invasion, is that the last resort?
I stonewalled. No.
Why not? he demanded. Why not?
My mind was a fog. I was trying to see sense in all this. Because, I fumbled, because we would only fight a war to defend ourselves. And how can we defend ourselves by committing suicide?
So what is the last resort? smiled the little old Professor. He shrugged, sat down and settled back into the overstuffed chintz armchair by the fire. Piccadilly? Watfod Gap Service Station? The Reform Club?
I stared at him, trying to put my thoughts in order. If you put it like that, I said to him, the nuclear deterrent makes no sense. Is that what youre saying?
Professor Rosenblum shook his head. No -- I'm not saying that. If either the Russians or the Americans have the bomb, the other side must have it too. And we might as well keep Polaris, just in case.
I didnt yet understand what exactly he was proposing.
He spelt it out to me. Cancel Trident. Spend the 15 billion you will save on conventional forces. Because you wouldnt really press the button, would you?
I might, I said carefully, if I had no choice.
He sighed. But weve been through this. Theyll never put you into a situation where you have no choice. Theyll stick to their salami tactics, remember?
So, I took a deep breath, what happens if we divert 15 billion from Trident. What do we spend it on -- tanks?
No. We spend it on ET.
What on earth could he mean? Extra-terrestrials?
He saw what I was thinking, and smiled. ET stands for Emergent Technology. Smart missiles. Target finding. Infra-Red. The ET needs to be operated by a large conventional army.
And then I got my inspiration! I suddenly saw what to do. Everything fell into place. It is ridiculously simple, but completely workable. First, we cancel Trident. We dont buy Cruise either. Then we introduce conscription, which will not only solve our defence problems by giving us a large conventional army, it also solves our unemployment problem! Excited, I explained my thoughts and Bernard raised a worry. Isnt conscription a rather courageous policy, Prime Minister?