He found himself tuning in and out as the reporter began with softballs. He kept thinking of the rigs descending from the storm. The inky steel backlit by the wicked scarlet cast of the lightning.
The former head of the World Bank spoke of the ongoing fight to decouple greenhouse gas emissions from growth while cautioning that the world was still recovering from the residual effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and would need to continue to grow the economy to bring people out of poverty. The finance minister described the flooding hammering the Nigerian coast, the saltwater intrusion destroying the livelihoods of farmers, who then went to Lagos to find work as the megacity exploded. Amazingly, the reporter did not ask the minister if her country planned to stop selling its petroleum anytime soon.
The woman from the Sustainable Future Coalition, Emii Li Song, projected an air of practiced reasonableness. Though her organization’s members were among the worst polluters in the history of humanity, she had a solution. “We need a carbon pricing mechanism, it’s that simple. And frankly, we also have to be concerned about the spate of attacks by eco-terrorists. We believe that Congress has to act on both fronts—on climate but also on the security of our energy systems.”
Finally, the belle of the ball got her close-up.
“In my state of New York, we’re planning to install nearly thirteen hundred megawatts of new solar capacity before the end of my first year in office,” said Mary Randall, and he could almost feel the audience perch forward. “We’ve only intensified our efforts, bringing down emissions and saving consumers money. It’s true that some carbon interests and utility companies have worked to pass laws to slow the progress of renewables—this just happened in Ohio where the state government extended the life of three of its dinosaur coal plants again—but the market will win this in the end.”
The reporter changed the subject. “There are rumors that you’re considering a run for president. Given the track record of the Republican Party on the climate issue, particularly under Donald Trump, do you feel as though people can trust your seriousness on the matter of climate change?”
“I’m committed to turning the page,” Randall said with the confidence of Cleopatra. Her voice was low, breathy, and seemed to curl in the air like smoke. “What’s done is done, but I believe in the threat of climate change. If I were to run, it would be because I understand market mechanisms are the best solution, my campaign has no ties to Russian intelligence, and I don’t even have a Twitter account.”
The crowd burst into knee-slapping laughter at this deflecting, canned response.
Tony tried not to make his opening remarks too prickly, but he could already feel the edge in his voice as he ran through his spieclass="underline" He’d published a book on what it would take to save the world from calamity almost ten years ago, and he’d called it One Last Chance for a reason—because if the world waited much longer, there would be no chance. Since then, global emissions had continued to rise, on their way to 600 to 700 ppm by the end of the century. If the world didn’t move to a war footing, there would be no way to draw down emissions or remediate carbon quickly enough to avoid cataclysm. “I may admire certain things that the esteemed members of the panel are saying here,” he said, feeling himself slipping into his preferred mumble. Then Gail’s voice popped into his head and he cleared his throat and spoke up. “But they’re still trapped in a paradigm of thinking that, frankly, we should have abandoned by 2008. We don’t have time for anything but the equivalent of a planetary wartime mobilization. Otherwise, it’s Welcome to Hobbes.”
“Hobbes?” asked the reporter.
“As in Thomas. As I wrote in my book, these feedbacks are tombstone dominoes. We’ve documented the first of the methane hydrates beginning to melt as the ocean warms, but we have no idea how sensitive this feedback loop might be. Along with the permafrost, it’s the other slow-rolling time bomb, and it’s starting to go off.” He thought he had more to say, but he petered out.
The reporter asked the former head of the World Bank to respond.
“At the same time, as we recognize that this is a very serious issue, we can’t allow a singular focus on emissions to throw the world into economic uncertainty or deny opportunity to those trying to climb out of poverty. I’d also add that some of the more extreme scenarios proposed by the IPCC and others may be overwrought.”
Tony became more annoyed from there.
You understand chemistry, math, physics, Gail said when he told her he wanted to write a book and truly engage this issue politically, but you have near-zero intelligence about people. You want the world to be this place of rational actors, but no one’s rational, Tony. We’re all guided by our crazy.
He’d never managed to take this to heart. People devised all sorts of ways of putting their heads in the sand even when they should’ve known better. When the evidence of their own illogic stared them right in the face. His irritation finally bubbled over at the person who added the final piece of straw to the camel.
“I do not buy this idea that we need to impose state controls,” said Governor Randall. “I think that’s been the fear from conservatives for a while, but it’s not a necessary fear. We can solve this problem utilizing the brilliance of the market.” She gestured to Li Song. “If the next administration passes even a basic price, it will set off a whole series of tipping points, and in a decade we’ll be running most of America on renewable energy. So this idea that we need a quote-unquote war mobilization is totally hysterical when you take into account the progress we can make with a very unintrusive, inexpensive policy.”
Tony’s hand shot up like he was an undergrad, and the reporter said, “Yes, you’d like to respond.”
“I would.” Tony had to adjust the wire microphone so he could lean across the others to address Randall. Her face never changed. She held her knee and watched him with those intense, sleepy eyes.
“Here’s the bad news for all of you: We’ve reached the end of growth. Raising people out of poverty and maintaining Western standards of consumption are simply no longer possible. That’s why I didn’t want to come to this bullshit charade. Frankly, you people are exactly the reason real action on our ecological situation cannot move forward, because the only real way to do it is to not have lone wealthy individuals consuming the resources of small nations, which as far as I can tell is the premise of this entire gathering. Look at the list of attendees you have here, how many of them come from companies that suck hydrocarbons out of the ground? No offense, but those are the dues-paying members of Davos and the Sustainable Future Coalition, and that’s a joke, and you all are a joke. Tomorrow there’s a panel called the Future of Extractives, which I guess is yet another joke since there can be no future for extractives, at least not if we want to survive this. Davos brings in a pop star or teenager every year to yell at them, but the market is still more real to the people here than nature. Furthermore, to gird our infrastructure and pay for an aging population in China and the West, we’ll need a drastic reallocation of financial resources. There’s simply no other way, and yes, it will come at the cost of growth. You people are living in a bell jar if you think differently. So, you can keep convening your panels and trotting out your woke women POC candidates and all the diversity hires of the corporate carbon establishment, and you can tell yourselves that everything’s going to be A-OK, but I can assure you, it is not. And I pray there’s somebody watching this video in about twenty years because all four of you are going to look very, very fucking stupid.”