The German Aviation Minister was in London to explore the possibility of Germany and Britain co-operating in building civilian airliners. He had brought his various research and study documents with him, but he was not prepared to release them unless he felt Balfour was genuinely in favour of the project. If he wasn’t, then Germany would go it alone. Or perhaps in partnership with France.
The involvement of Britain was sought because of their vast empire in Africa, Asia, North and South America, and Australasia. They were an obvious ready market for airliners.
Balfour greeted Kesselring cordially and offered him coffee or tea. Like most continentals the German could not understand the love of the British for that insipid beverage called tea. He accepted coffee. It wasn’t very good coffee. They chatted about Europe, and general aviation matters before they got down to business.
“Mr Balfour, my ministry has recently completed a review on the future of civil aviation, as it applies to European countries, including Great Britain. Our conclusion is that aircraft manufacture is of great strategic and economic importance to our countries. If we are complacent about it, the Americans with their huge manufacturing potential and large domestic air travel market, will soon dominate the industry.
The British, French and Dutch have a vast empire spread across the world. This is a ready market for civilian airliners. A market that the Americans will grab for themselves, if we allow them.
We respectfully suggest that there is scope for Great Britain and Germany to co-operate in meeting this challenge.”
Balfour knew there had been much concern about the advances in German technology and some mention in government circles of possible future co-operation with Germany, but nothing specific. The sheer scope of Kesselring’s proposal was both simple and at the same time, fascinating! Balfour was an instant convert to the idea!
The two Ministers got down to the details. They threw thoughts, ideas and questions back and forth for the next two hours. Kesselring gave Balfour a copy of his precious research. They now needed some projected costs for research and development, cost of production, selling prices and expected sales. Balfour needed to discretely sound out key players in the British aviation industry. After that it was a job for the number crunchers.
Balfour promised to discuss this with the Prime Minister as soon as he could see him, which he expected would be the following week at the latest. Thereafter he would visit Kesselring in Germany to take the matter to the next level.
Kesselring returned to Germany satisfied with what he had accomplished so far.
James and Jeremy were lunching in a quiet restaurant in a charming leafy suburb of Berlin. The two brothers had met outside the British embassy and strolled in the autumn sunshine, exchanging news. James was surprised to hear that a romance had blossomed between their sister and the American naval officer, Jamie MacLellan. Katherine kept that quiet!
Over lunch James explained his work to Jeremy. As had been the case with their father, he expected Jeremy to be circumspect in the matter of useful business contacts. However, one thing Jeremy did disclose that day, lit a fire under James Blackstone that had ramifications far beyond the little bank he worked for.
They had been talking about Germany’s jet fighter, the ME262. Jeremy added to the discussion by disclosing that Germany was considering producing commercial airliners in the not too distant future. An obvious first market for these would be the national airlines of each European country. The British and French empires alone must need dozens, maybe hundreds, of machines flying between home and the colonies every day.
Now he innocently said something that caused James’ ears to pick up. “These airliners will not be cheap. The smaller regional airlines will struggle to find the cash to buy them”.
He carried on taking but James wasn’t listening. Those few words of Jeremy’s had set his brain whirling. His ideas quickly crystallised. A new innovation at his bank. Specialists in tailor-made finance for aircraft. A huge potential market!
He could hardly sit still in his seat. He insisted Jeremy repeat everything once more, with as much detail as possible. Unfortunately Jeremy knew little more than he had already told his brother. He had heard that Britain may be involved somewhere, and that was about it. It wasn’t exactly a state secret so he undertook to keep James informed if and when he heard anything further.
After lunch Jeremy made his way back to the Embassy. James caught the first available flight back to London. He had work to do!
Kesselring finally had the report for which he and his British counterpart had waited impatiently the last two months. It was everything he hoped it would be.
Its compilation had been a team effort and included material provided by Lufthansa and other European airlines, individual pilots, aircraft designers and manufacturers, accountants, and Germany’s own state aviation and department of finance officials.
With the return to prosperity in Europe and a lot of the rest of the world, the increase in the number of civilian airline passengers travelling in the coming years, was forecast to explode.
Using the current design specifications for Lockheed’s Constellation as a starting point, a worldwide market in the region of at least one thousand similar aircraft was projected over the next ten or so, years. Using an estimated sale price of US$700000 per aircraft, this represented a US$700 million market. To put this in perspective, the value of German exports to its single largest market, the Soviet Union, were equivalent to about US$180 million per year.
The report recommended that any competition to the Constellation should be bigger, (seventy passengers compared to the Constellation’s forty four), and faster. Basic preliminary design concepts had already been submitted. First deliveries to airlines could be as early as 1944 provided no time was wasted.
The second part of the project, a jet airliner, reflected an even more staggering potential. The project team had settled on an ambitious leap into the future. They recommended a four jet engined, long-range airliner able to carry a minimum of one hundred passengers. The estimated future cost of the aircraft would be at least US$1.2 million each. With an estimated world market of one thousand five hundred for this type of aircraft from about 1950 onwards, it represented potential sales of US$2 billion.
It was acknowledged that the USA would be a big competitor, but If Germany and Britain only captured half of the market it would still be an outstanding success story.
Talks with the British had resulted in a provisional agreement for the British and German governments to jointly build civil aircraft. The British would design and build the engines and instrumentation, the Germans would have the responsibility for the airframe, interior and fittings.
Any such agreement, of course, was subject to the acceptance of the report by, and final approval of, the respective governments. Kesselring thought, ‘This is where all the petty, jumped up politicians try to have a finger in the pie’.
Still everything looked positive so far, and it was due to be debated in the Governing Council next week and by the British Cabinet the following week. Kesselring eagerly awaited the outcome.
The imposing rocket stood on the launch pad and the countdown had begun. It stood only twelve metres high and did not have the appearance of a wonder weapon. To the observers three hundred metres away, it looked no more than a large interesting toy.