“Smart,” Calder said, setting his coin down with a decisive click. “But they’ll need security. Can’t have another Khobar Towers on our hands.”
“Second Battalion, 503rd Infantry from my 173rd,” Morrison suggested. “Paratroopers. Light, fast, and used to working with European partners. One company on Gotland, the rest of the battalion stages from Riga.”
Sheridan pulled up a map on the wall display, his thick fingers surprisingly delicate on the touchscreen. “Creates a triangle — Gotland, Riga, Helsinki. Any Russian move gets caught in a crossfire.”
“And if this exercise turns hot?” Batista pressed. “Like Ukraine in 2022?” The room fell silent again. They all remembered how quickly “exercises” had become invasions.
Calder stood, moving to the map. Despite his lean frame, he dominated the room. “Then we implement Joint Task Force Sentinel. Full anti-access, area-denial umbrella from the Danish Straits to the Gulf of Finland.”
He traced the coverage area with his finger. “Patriot batteries here, here, and here. HIMARS positioned to cover the Suwałki Gap and the Estonian border. Navy assets surge forward from the North Sea.”
“I can have 1-59 ADA moving within seventy-two hours,” Varnell said, already composing deployment orders in his head. “The 173rd can follow within a week.”
“What about the Europeans?” Morrison asked. “Can’t do this unilaterally.”
Batista nodded. “That’s my next stop. Mons, then Stockholm. I’ll get Stubb on board.”
Alexander Stubb, NATO’s Secretary-General, was a pragmatist who understood the delicate balance between alliance cohesion and decisive action. The Finnish politician had learned hard lessons about Russian intentions.
“The Germans will balk,” Sheridan warned. “They always do when it comes to antagonizing Moscow.”
“Let me worry about Berlin,” Batista said. “Right now, I need to know we can execute if given the green light.”
Calder moved back to his seat, picking up his coin again. “Jim, I can have TF Sentinel operational within three weeks. But I want more than just the 173rd. If this goes sideways, I need heavy metal close at hand and additional airpower to counter the increase in PLA Air Force units arriving in the region.”
“First Armor’s at Fort Bliss, ready to roll,” Varnell confirmed. “Third Infantry at Stewart. We could have a full armored corps in Europe within a month. I can schedule two F-22 squadrons from the 325th Operations Group out of Tyndall, a pair of F-15EXs from the 4th Operations Group from Seymour Johnson, and the 4th Fighter Squadron’s F-35As from Hill. That beefs your airpower up by five squadrons of stealth fighters and frontline aircraft.”
“Do it, quietly,” Batista said. “We’ll call it a readiness exercise. How about EuroShield-33, or whatever you think is best? But I want options.”
Morrison leaned forward. “My teams have been tracking Russian Spetsnaz activity in the Baltics. Unusual patterns. Tourist visas that don’t match tourist behavior. We might already have infiltrators in place.”
“All the more reason to move fast,” Calder said. He looked around the table, meeting each man’s eyes. “Gentlemen, we’re walking a tightrope. Too little response, and we’re inviting aggression. Too much, and we might trigger exactly what we’re trying to prevent.”
Batista stood, signaling the meeting’s end. “Then we’d better have perfect balance. General Calder, I want TF Sentinel’s deployment plan on my desk by tomorrow. Duke, get your snake eaters ready — I have a feeling we’re going to need them. T. J., start working the logistics. If we’re doing this, we’re doing it right.”
As the others filed out, Calder lingered. The two men stood by the window, watching the snow fall on the headquarters of America’s European shield.
“Jim, you know what this looks like, right?” Calder said quietly. “Forward-deploying air-defense and precision fires? That’s not just deterrence. That’s preparation for a fight.”
Batista nodded slowly. “I know, Nate. Question is, do they?”
“The Russians? They wrote the playbook we’re reading from.” Calder pocketed his coin. “Maskirovka. Deception. Exercises that aren’t exercises. We’re just playing by their rules now.”
“Then let’s make sure we play to win,” Batista said.
Batista sat alone in the darkened SVTC room, the glow from multiple screens casting harsh shadows across his weathered face. The secure link to Washington had just connected, and President Lawson Ashford’s imposing six-foot-four frame filled the primary display. Even through the encrypted connection, Batista could see the strain in the President’s tired eyes. All of Ashford’s years in the military, working in agricultural logistics, and his time as the governor of Kansas hadn’t aged him nearly as much as his time in the presidency. His once chestnut-brown hair had grayed considerably. Batista wondered if he’d lost more weight with a bit of concern, since Ashford was already quite lean.
“Jim, I’ve read your initial assessment,” Ashford said, his Kansas drawl more pronounced than usual, a tell that he was deeply concerned. “Bottom-line it for me. Are we looking at another Ukraine?”
Batista had served in uniform under four presidents, but Ashford was different. The former governor and visionary who’d led the creation of the Grain Consortium understood logistics and supply chains better than most generals. He grasped that modern warfare was as much about industrial capacity as battlefield prowess. It was why he had supercharged the Pentagon’s Replicator program and accelerated the implementation of autonomous weapon platforms across the services. They were doing more with less, with greater capability than ever before.
“I’m not sure I’m ready to say that yet, but the parallels are concerning, Mr. President,” Batista said, choosing his words carefully. “The way I see it, Mr. President, is we have two problems we’re facing and no good solutions for how to deal with them. The first problem is the US and NATO and our continued challenge with Russia. The second problem is China. Their involvement changes the calculus entirely.”
“Oh, how so?”
“Eh, people may differ on what led to the 2022 Russo-Ukraine War, but ultimately, that war was about territorial expansion. The Russians were trying to create a buffer zone along the Dnipro River, Sea of Azov, and the Black Sea. It’s a shame that poor leadership on the part of Europe and the US led to the war beginning in the first place and its eventual outcome. What we have to do now, Mr. President, is make abundantly clear to Russia and the Chinese our spheres of influence are better served through trade and economic activity than through force of arms,” Batista explained.
“The thing is, Mr. President, this somehow feels bigger. Like this is part of a greater, more strategic plan in play. This incident around Gotland, in my mind, is a bigger deal than our Swedish and European allies may be willing to accept. It feels coordinated, the Russian and Chinese Navies working in tandem toward a common goal.” Batista paused, looking off camera for a moment, searching for the right words. “I know the emphasis of your next term, Mr. President, is meant to be on how we can find a way to bridge these geopolitical, economic, and social divides between the Western-led democracies and what’s transformed into this Eurasian Defense Economic Pact, EDEP. But we might have to face the reality that, despite our desire to achieve some sort of normal coexistence between our sides — as worthy a goal and as noble a gesture as yours and Europe’s is — we don’t have a willing partner opposite us that sees it the same way.”