Ashford nodded slowly, leaning back in his chair and looking up toward the ceiling, collecting his thoughts and weighing what to say in response. The 2020s had been a rough decade for the West, from COVID lockdowns to unheard-of levels of digital censorship to the brutal, barbaric war in Ukraine and the Middle East. People were looking for calm, for stability and for economic security at home.
The country was just starting to recover from the economic impact of running a $40 trillion deficit. Ashford’s push during his first term to create the Grain Consortium or GC, a cartel of like-minded nations that rewarded farmers for producing ever-growing quantities of food for the government to buy and then sell at guaranteed prices and quantities, had reduced global famine and food shortages by half in just the first couple of years. It had also brought in enormous tax revenues for the government as it sought to begin the process of paying down the deficit. But it was his radical approach to restructuring how entitlement programs were funded that had really ended deficit spending and shored up the programs for future generations, even increasing benefit payments at the same time.
“Jim, as always, I appreciate your pragmatism and ability to see the world as it is, not how us politicians wish it was,” Ashford began, weighing his words carefully. “When the voters saw fit to give me a second term, they did so because they wanted their elected leaders in Washington to address the problems here at home. Not nation building abroad or attempting to be the global cop, the country always sticking its nose into the affairs of others. That said, if Goryunov and Ouyang believe me to be weak, or think that we will sit idly by while they redraw the borders of nations in a way that suits them, they have another thing coming.
“Next month, the GC is meeting in New Delhi to discuss ways to further increase rice production. Separately, they are hosting a trade delegation with representatives from EDEP. They’re looking to establish a long-term deal for the bloc, as opposed to their individual members negotiating deals on their own. How do you think Moscow or Beijing might react if we looked to use these negotiations as leverage to de-escalate things before this May exercise begins?” Ashford asked.
Batista hated the principle of the idea, as it would punish the citizens rather than the leaders it was meant to influence. “I’m hesitant to use something like food over a country, especially one we’re not at war with. If that’s the route you’d like to go, Mr. President, then perhaps we should dangle a better deal for them than they otherwise might get, but we make the deal contingent upon them scaling back the size and scope of this exercise. And we make it abundantly clear — should they decide to turn this exercise into something more, all deals are off. If Russia or China start a war, it’ll negatively impact all the members of EDEP, not just belligerents. I think we could use this to help shape the kind of peaceful outcome we want to see,” Batista replied.
“Jim, are we too late? Should we have pushed this leverage a year ago when the GC officially came into being?” quizzed Ashford, a hesitant look on his face, like he had made a mistake and was only just now realizing it.
Batista shrugged. “That’s hard to say, Mr. President. All I know is since we got that report from South Korean intelligence, DragonBear — I’m just not sure. All signs point to this exercise being cover for something bigger. It seems to me the Russians are preparing to secure the Baltic States and create that long-sought-after land bridge to Kaliningrad, like they did in Ukraine with Crimea.”
Ashford nodded, then sat forward as he asked, “And this Gotland force, Joint Task Force Sentinel — you think this will deter them, along with those other deployments T. J.’s recommending?”
“I think so. It’s a credible deterrent,” Batista replied. “Air-defense umbrella, precision fires, just enough ground forces to secure our assets. It’s small enough not to provoke, large enough to complicate their planning if they wanted to try and seize the island.”
“Walk me through the timeline.”
Batista pulled up a deployment schedule on his tablet. “1-59 ADA begins movement in three weeks. Equipment follows by sea and air. Initial operational capability on Gotland by March fifteenth. Full TF Sentinel operational by April first.”
“That’s fast.”
“Has to be. The EDEP exercise kicks off May first. If they’re planning something, that’s their window.”
The President was quiet for a moment, his weathered hands folding and unfolding on his desk. “Jim, I grew up watching wheat futures. You learn to read patterns, spot the signs before the storm hits. What’s your gut telling you?”
Batista considered the question. In thirty years of service, his instincts had saved more lives than any intelligence report. “My gut says this is different, sir. Bigger. The resource allocation, the timing, the coordination between Russia and China — it’s unprecedented. They’re not just testing their readiness capabilities like they claim. They’re preparing for something.”
“Then we’d better be prepared too,” Ashford said. “You have my authorization for TF Sentinel. But, Jim—”
“Sir?”
“Keep it quiet. Last thing we need is the New York Times running ‘US Prepares for World War Three’ headlines. That helps nobody.”
“Understood, Mr. President.”
“And, Jim? That armor you mentioned, the 1st Armor and 3rd Infantry Division? Start the movements. Call it a training rotation. But I want them ready to roll into battle if this goes south.”
“Agreed. I’ll get it in motion, sir.”
The President nodded, then leaned forward. “One more thing. What’s your take on Gotland? Can the Swedes hold it if push comes to shove?”
Batista thought of the map, the narrow straits, the strategic position. “With our help? Yeah, not a problem. Without it? Not a chance in hell if the Chinese are involved.”
“Fair enough. Then make sure that doesn’t happen. Whatever it takes,” the President directed, then cut the feed.
Batista was left alone with his thoughts and the weight of what was coming. Outside, the snow continued to fall on Vaihingen, each flake adding to the blanket of white covering the base. Soon, he thought, they’d know if this was just another exercise or the prelude to something worse.
He stood, gathering his materials. Mons awaited, then Stockholm. Allies to reassure, defenses to coordinate, and always, always, the ticking clock counting down to May.
As he left the conference room, Batista couldn’t shake the feeling that they were already playing catch-up in a game whose rules they didn’t fully understand. The question wasn’t whether the storm was coming — it was whether they’d be ready when it hit.
Chapter Eleven:
The Rehearsal
Rain hissed gently against the windows of the bridge, each droplet shimmering under the amber glow of Yulin Naval Base’s floodlights. Captain Shen Tao studied the tactical display intensely, the tight scar above his eyebrow twitching — a permanent reminder of the violent typhoon that struck Woody Island during a disastrous exercise last October.
The Navy had been conducting its largest amphibious landing exercise, transporting twelve of their jack-up barge systems from Yulin Naval Base to Woody Island. When a typhoon swept into the area before they could secure the landing barges, seven of the twelve had been lost. Three more had been severely damaged. In a single day, Mother Nature had dealt a crippling blow to the PLAN’s amphibious landing capabilities, leaving the Navy scrambling to replace the lost barges and the crews that had manned them.