“Tao, look more closely at the map,” Deng encouraged, highlighting positions for him. “The Russians are massing a VDV division near the Finnish and Norwegian borders. They have deployed the 1st Tank Army opposite the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. We have deployed the 82nd Group Army to Belarus, opposite Suwalki, Poland. The 1st PLA Naval Infantry Brigade is training with the Russian Marines in Kaliningrad, opposite the Swedish island of Gotland. In the Middle East, the 79th Group Army is deploying with the Iranian Republican Guard Corps and the Pakistani 9th Mechanized Brigade along the Khuzestan province of southwestern Iran, opposite the city of Basrah along the Shatt al Arab river, adjacent to a series of strategic rail and highway routes connecting the energy fields of southern Iraq and northwest Kuwait. Do you see it now, Tao?”
Suddenly, it crystallized in Shen’s mind. He hadn’t noticed it earlier, but now it was glaringly obvious. He looked to Deng with newfound awe at his strategic brilliance. “Whoa, I think I see it. This entire time — this whole exercise, the hype, all of it — it’s been nothing but a giant ruse. It’s a pre-positioned threat to Europe and America, designed to keep them paralyzed. If they interfere with our actions against Taiwan, this so-called ‘exercise’ could pivot into a full-scale invasion — one they’re not ready to repel. The whole thing is a feint. Brilliant.”
“And the Padawan becomes the Master. While the world watches the EDEP exercise continue to unfold, we will be making our move to rein in the renegade province of Taiwan, using the passage of DEAC-33 as the legal pretext for our actions. The inspections at sea, justified by protecting our people from the deadly narcotic Vortex, are the tip of the spear,” Deng explained. “When your squadron initiates inspections near Penghu, the world’s media and Western navies will be completely absorbed by the ongoing exercises taking place along the Baltic Sea and the shores of Kaliningrad — not Taiwan. Not until it’s too late.”
Deng touched the display again, shifting to the Arctic and Northern Pacific. “When the world’s attention suddenly shifts to Taiwan, that is when the EDEP exercise transforms into a full invasion of critical islands, harbors, and airstrips here — the Bering Strait. Meanwhile, Russia and our North Sea Fleet will rapidly secure the Arctic passages and gateways into the Bering Sea: Attu Station, Dutch Harbor, and St. Lawrence Island. With control of these areas, Tao, China and Russia will not merely dominate the global trade routes stretching from the South China Sea to the Bering Sea — we will control the future of Arctic commerce as it continues to be unlocked by the melting of polar ice.
“This means China and Russia will be positioned to dominate European and American trade corridors for the remainder of the twenty-first century. The brilliance of our plan, Tao, is that by paralyzing the West with the threat of simultaneous invasion across Eastern Europe and the Baltics, we force them into inaction just long enough for us and our EDEP allies to seize control of our objectives and entrench ourselves beyond their capacity to dislodge us.”
The sound of thunder crashed outside as Deng finished speaking. The lights of the room flickered ever so briefly before returning like nothing happened.
Shen sat there for a moment, thinking over what Deng had just shared. It was incredible, but also scary. “This explains so much — why you have been pushing us so hard these past few months, the rigid timelines, the invasion barges… all of it,” Shen realized. “It all has to integrate with the announcement of the DEAC-33 legislation and customs inspections just as it has to integrate with the EDEP exercise. It’s brilliant, Admiral.”
“Yes, it is. And it took years to plan and make ready. Two empires reclaiming their spheres of influence, while America spreads itself impossibly thin and tears itself apart from within. We leverage the West’s own fear of escalation. The same fear that made them hesitate in Ukraine will render them powerless now,” Deng explained confidently.
Shen considered the implications before responding. “Sir, about the intelligence reports you shared with me about those autonomous naval vessels Taiwan’s been receiving — supposedly from some American private military contractor. What happens if Taiwan fights harder than originally anticipated? What if those autonomous weapons inflict serious losses on my squadron in the Penghu area? If I understand the reports correctly, they’re trying to turn the waters around Penghu into an autonomous killing field.”
Deng’s voice was grim but resolute as he responded. “If that happens, Tao, then it escalates. Obviously, it would mean your squadron would take losses. That may unfortunately be one of the prices we’ll have to pay to achieve victory. If that is the case, we suffer whatever losses are necessary to achieve our strategic objective — the Penghu archipelago. You and I both know the capture of Penghu means Taiwan will be on borrowed time. If we have to, we simply embargo the island and starve them into submission.”
Deng paused what he was about to say, staring at the digital map before speaking. “In the end, Tao, it’s not like America is going to willingly trade the city of Los Angeles for Taipei. And it’s not like Europe would dare risk nuclear war over territories thousands of kilometers away. Just look at how paralyzed they were during the Russo-Ukraine War. The mere mention of nuclear weapons caused them to falter, exactly when they had Russia on the ropes. Instead, they allowed Putin to save face and turn certain defeat into strategic survival. Trust me, Tao — Europe and America will do the same in Asia. They’ll blink.”
Shen felt a shiver run down his spine at how casually his mentor spoke of nuclear war, of loss beyond anything he imagined. As he thought of his family in Beijing, he asked, “Admiral, you may be right about Europe, maybe even America. But are we prepared to risk losing Shanghai for Penghu if that’s what it comes to?”
“That is a question for the CMC and the Politburo. Your mission, Tao, is to make sure it never comes to that. Give Taiwan a bloody nose, not a mortal wound. If things go according to the plan, then America will be too busy to respond with enough force to stop us.”
Shen felt the urge to laugh, catching himself just in time.
“What’s so funny, Tao?” asked Deng, his perceptive eye missing nothing.
“I was remembering a phrase an American boxer named Mike Tyson used to say,” Shen began. “He said everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Deng laughed, a deep, loud belly laugh. “Oh, Tao, I needed that. He is right, of course. No plan survives first contact. That is why I push you commanders so hard: to make you resilient, to force you to adapt and bounce back from each setback. I only hope I have prepared you commanders for the battles we are about to face,” confided Deng.
Outside, the rain intensified. The wind howled through the palm trees as the eye of the storm approached.
Deng’s tone softened as the rain grew louder. “There’s something else I want to tell you; it’s personal.”
Shen waited quietly, letting him speak when he was ready.
“You know my son, Minghao, he recently took command of the Long March 21, one of our Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. He’s currently on deployment in the Arctic… our insurance policy if things spiral out of control…” Deng murmured softly, his mask slipping to reveal the same paternal anxiety a parent feels when their child is serving in the Armed Forces.
“I remember. Minghao was beyond excited when he learned he was selected for command of a Jin-class. But, sir, we do have some control in the escalation,” replied Shen, reminding him they weren’t completely powerless in what happened next.