“That’s right,” Vice President Donner added. “Under the guise of developing a national energy policy, we’ll be able to hit them, and hit them hard. We won’t need to say anything about Russia’s involvement in yesterday’s attacks, though the message sent to them will be loud and clear — we know you had a role in this and this is merely the first of several salvos. In addition, though this announcement will have a very short-lived impact on the price of oil, it will give them something to think about in the long term as we’re hoping to drive the price of oil to less than $40 a barrel — mind you, it’s over $70 right now. Just maybe we can get them to rethink the cost of sustained support for the Assad regime.”
“I like it,” added Secretary Johnson. “The Russians clearly pose the greatest threat to the region at this point. Syria is their last remaining ally in the region and I would expect them to do everything they can to stabilize the situation there — and I do mean everything. Russian military operations are pretty much a certainty. Historically, the Russians have always wanted a warm water port for their navy and they already have Latakia. I’m guessing they’ll want Tartus, too. In addition, they’ve even formed their own private army called Wagner something or other, not too dissimilar to Black Water, though I would expect the Russians to actually use Wagner in places where they might need some cover or deniability should something go seriously wrong with an operation. We’ve already seen a Wagner operation so the question isn’t if they’ll use this force but when they’ll be used again. Bottom line, making them think twice about expanding their operations in Syria is a welcome move.”
“One thing we’ll need to keep an eye on, though, Mr. President,” interjected Secretary of Defense Eric Axelsson, “is that with Iran out of the picture, we’ve removed the last major regional power-player in the Middle East, outside of Israel. In essence, there is now a serious power vacuum over there and we’ve heard rumors of an ambitious radical Islamic group, not dissimilar to Al Qaeda, that has already carved out a pretty large chunk of Iraq and Syria.”
Eric Axelsson posed an interesting foil to Secretary of State Andrea Johnson. Axelsson met the definition of ‘been there, done that’ having retired as a three-star admiral. He flew combat missions in the front seat of an F-14 in the first Gulf war and commanded one of the five Carrier Battle Groups in the initial phase of Iraqi Freedom in 2003. As the admiral on board the carrier, he could be found running laps on the flight deck most mornings. He had also been on the staff of Central Command and knew many of the Arab leaders in the region, both military and political. Andrea Johnson, though every bit the fitness freak as Axelsson — she could be seen most every morning hitting the pavement for a five mile run around Arlington — had spent her entire life in academia. She obtained her doctorate in International Relations with a focus on South African studies. Prior to becoming Secretary of State, she chaired various History and International Relations departments at a number of Ivy League schools, most recently, Yale’s International Security Studies program. She viewed Israel’s policy towards the Palestinians as equal to apartheid in South Africa and fully supported the Arab Spring.
“Mr. President, Alex is referring to a relatively new group known locally as Daesh and to the rest of the world as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. Sir, I can assure you, that this group is no threat to anyone in the region. They are nothing more than a bunch of minor leaguers trying to make a name for themselves. Trust me, even though this ISIS group has a large chunk of both Iraq and Syria, have you looked at a map? Most of the territory they claim is simply vacant desert. The only two exceptions would be Mosul and Ramadi in Iraq. Al Qaeda posed more of a risk in their hey-day than these guys do. Besides, the Russians really pose a far larger threat to the region. With all of our activity in the region, I’m sure they are pressing the Syrians for a greater presence there. Bashir Assad has his own problems trying to keep his country together, so I’m sure the Russians will dangle some type of increased support for him, possibly an expanded naval presence in Tartus, or something like that. We might actually want to try and get ahead of them on this, though, and do what we can to ‘persuade’ them to back off, like your announcement of the additional pipeline.”
“Mr. President, sorry for the interruption here with one of my aides,” Jim Carmichael broke in as one of assistants walked in to deliver him a message. “I’ve just been handed a note that it appears a terrorist bombing occurred at Eskisehir Air Base in Turkey within the past hour. The high command of the Turkish Air Force was holding a planning meeting on the F-35 at the time. It’s apparently too soon to know about casualties but it does not look good. The entire high command of the Air Force, along with President Demeril’s chief of staff, were supposed to be at this meeting and it looks as though someone might have tried to take out the entire group. At present, no one is claiming responsibility. The two prime suspects are either the Kurds, which would be the PKK, or ISIS.”
“Why would someone target the Turkish Air Force?” Chief of Staff Tom Fleming asked. “That doesn’t make any sense.”
“No, it doesn’t,” agreed Carmichael. “The government itself would be an obvious target for either the PKK or ISIS, though the Air Force has hit the Kurds pretty hard of late. And… they are a member of NATO so we need to look into this — if they’ve been attacked by an outside force, they may want to look to us for help. Just one more thing to look into over there. We’ll be checking all of our sources in the region but it’s a little soon to speculate on this.”
“So, what I’m hearing is that we really have two main threats in the region, the Russians first and foremost, followed by this ISIS group, with the Kurds a distant third, though definitely not to be overlooked. Is that correct?” President Barre asked his staff.
“That’s correct,” Secretary Johnson replied, “though, again, I’m not all that convinced this ISIS group is that much of a threat. They’re a bunch of minor leaguers if you ask me.”
“Jim, what about the Israelis, what do they think?” President Barre asked Carmichael.
“Sir, Eric’s right. My friends in Mossad see ISIS as the real danger in the region. The Russians are an obvious threat with their only remaining ally in the region needing a lot of support simply to survive, as Andrea just mentioned. However, the Russians appear to me more like a paper tiger — yes, they pose a significant threat to the Ukrainians, the Baltic States and other immediate neighboring countries. However, Syria amounts to an expeditionary force for them, which is much more expensive to maintain and the Russian economy is already strapped. Anything they do in Syria might even be seen as a kind of marketing campaign for their own military-industrial complex. With the power vacuum we’ve inadvertently created, we’ll obviously need to watch both of ‘em. We all know what Al Qaeda did and they didn’t have the resources ISIS appears to have, or have access to.”
“Okay, what about Iran? Where are we at with helping Dr. Bagheri rebuild Iran?”
“I’m actually planning on heading over there in the next couple of days,” Secretary of State Johnson replied. “The Indians have been helping us out with the rebuilding effort. We wanted to avoid any potential clashes with the Sunni and Shia sects so we asked the Indian government to help them out. They have readily obliged and everything seems to be going well. I want to simply pay a visit and make sure we don’t overlook something, though.”