2 Internet Balkans, as we refer to them, are different than intranets. An intranet uses the same Internet protocol technology but is limited to a network within an organization or local area, instead of a network of other networks. Corporate intranets are often protected from unauthorized external access by firewalls or other gateway mechanisms.
3 Smaller incidents, however, do suggest that governments are capable and perhaps comfortable manipulating DNS routing on occasion. More than a few times, Google’s web address has mysteriously directed people to www.Baidu.com, China’s local search competitor.
4 We distinguish between “cyber attack” and “cyber terrorism” by looking at the individual or entity behind the attack and assessing motives. The two, however, may manifest themselves in very similar ways, such as economic espionage.
5 When we asked the former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan about the collaboration, his only comment was, “Do you really expect me to tell you?”
6 Larry Constantine, a professor at the University of Madeira, in Portugal, challenges Sanger’s analysis in a September 4, 2012, interview podcast with Steven Cherry, an associate senior editor at IEEE Spectrum, the magazine of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, arguing that it is technically impossible for Stuxnet to have spread in the manner that Sanger described (e.g., Stuxnet could spread only over a LAN—local area network—not the Internet). Our view is that Constantine’s argument has enough validity to at least warrant debate.
7 Eventually, the Chinese government will be caught red-handed in one of these industrial attacks. If the case is presented to the United Nations Security Council, no resolution will ever be approved, owing to China’s veto power, but the outcome will nevertheless be serious geopolitical embarrassment.
8 There’s an important distinction that needs to be made here. For the purposes of DoS and DDoS attacks, it’s not always relevant whether any compromised computers are inside or outside the target’s network. Where it matters most is in industrial espionage, when the goal is information extraction; in those cases, computers must be inside the network.
CHAPTER 4
The Future of Revolution
We all know the story of the Arab Spring, but what we don’t know is what comes next. There can be little doubt that the near future will be full of revolutionary movements, as communication technologies enable new connections and generate more room for expression. And it’s clear that certain tactical efforts, like mobilizing crowds or disseminating material, will get easier as mobile and Internet penetration rates rise across many countries.
But despite seeing more revolutionary movements, we’ll see fewer revolutionary outcomes—fully realized revolutions resulting in dramatic and progressive political turnover. A lack of sustainable leaders combined with savvier state responses will impede profound change (both good and bad) on the scale of the Arab revolutions that began in late 2010. Throughout history, the technologies of the time have stimulated and shaped how revolutions developed, but at a fundamental level all successful revolutions share common factors, like institutional structure, outside support and cultural cohesiveness. The historical record is littered with failed attempts that lacked these basic elements, from Russian revolutionary efforts prior to 1917 through Iraq’s Shia uprising in 1991 and the 2009 Green Revolution in Iran. Modern technology, powerful as it is, cannot work miracles, though it can improve the odds of success dramatically.
With so many people connected in so many places, the future will contain the most active, outspoken and globalized civil society the world has ever known. In the beginning of revolutionary movements, the noisy nature of the virtual world will impede the ability of state security to keep up with and crush revolutionary activity, enabling a revolution to start. But how quickly this can happen presents a new problem, since leaders will then have to operate in the physical world of parliaments, constitutions and electoral politics—none of which they’ll have the skill or experience to navigate effectively.
Easier to Start …
As connectivity spreads and new portions of the world are welcomed into the online fold, revolutions will continually sprout up, more casually and more often than at any other time in history. With new access to virtual space and to its technologies, populations and groups all around the world will seize their moment, addressing long-held grievances or new concerns with tenacity and conviction. Many leading these charges will be young, not just because so many of the countries coming online have incredibly young populations—Ethiopia, Pakistan and the Philippines are three examples where the majority of the population is under the age of thirty-five—but also because the mix of activism and arrogance in young people is universal. They already believe they know how to fix things, so, given the opportunity to take a public stand, they won’t hesitate.
Every society in the future, including those that adopted Internet technology early on, will experience different forms of protest in which communication technologies are used to organize, mobilize and engage the international community. The platforms protesters use today—Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and others—will morph into even more constructive vehicles, as developers around the world find new ways to utilize the videos, images and messages related to their particular missions. The world will be introduced to more digital activists, branded heroes by the international community, as they work to become ambassadors for their cause. Countries that have not yet had their first big protest in the new digital age will experience it on a global scale, with the world watching and potentially exaggerating its significance. Democratic societies will see more protests related to perceived social injustice and economic inequality, while people in repressive countries will demonstrate against issues like fraudulent elections, corruption and police brutality. There will be few truly new causes, merely better forms of mobilization and many more participants.
Staging a revolt used to be exclusive to the subset of individuals with the right weapons, international backing and training. Much of this exclusivity has been shattered as communication technologies break down age, gender, socioeconomic and circumstantial barriers that previously prevented individuals from taking part. Citizens will no longer experience injustice in isolation or solitude, and this globalized feedback loop where people all around the world can comment and react will inspire many populations to stand up and make their feelings known. As the revolutions of the Arab Spring demonstrated, once the so-called fear barrier has been broken down and a government appears newly vulnerable, many otherwise obedient or quiet citizens don’t hesitate to join in. One of the positive consequences of social media in the Arab revolutions, for example, was that women were able to play a much greater role, given the choice of expressing themselves on social networks when going to the streets was too risky (although many women did take the physical risk). In some countries, people will occasionally organize protests online or in the streets every day, simply because they can. We saw this when we visited Libya in 2012. As we met with ministers in the transitional government in Tripoli, they mentioned casually that there were small groups of protesters nearly every morning. Were they worried?, we asked. Some were, but others shook their heads, almost chuckling, and said it was a natural reaction after more than forty years of oppression.
Virtual space offers new avenues for dissent and participation, as well as new protections for potential revolutionaries. For the most part, dissidents will find their world safer due to the mass adoption of communication technologies, despite the fact that the physical risks they face will not change. (Nor will connectivity shield all activists equally; in countries where the government is very technically capable, dissidents may feel as vulnerable online as they do on the streets.) Arrests, harassment, torture and extrajudicial killings will not disappear, but overall, the anonymity of the Internet and the networked power of communication technologies will provide activists and would-be participants with a new layer of protective insulation that encourages them to continue on.