And what of the prospects for keeping secrets in the future, something equally important for the proper functioning of people and institutions? New abilities to encrypt secrets and spread pieces of information among people will lead to some unusual new problems. Separate groups—ranging from criminals to dissidents—will soon be able to take a secret (perhaps a set of codes or classified documents), encrypt it and then divide up the secret by allocating one part of the encryption key to each group member. A group could then consent to a mutually assured publication pact—that is, under certain circumstances, everyone combines his partial key to release the data. Such an agreement could be used to discipline governments or terrorize individuals. And if groups like al-Qaeda get their hands on sensitive encrypted data—such as the names and locations of undercover CIA agents—they could distribute copies to their affiliates with a common key and threaten to release the information if any one of their groups is attacked.
What emerges in the future, and what we’ve tried to articulate, is a tale of two civilizations: One is physical and has developed over thousands of years, and the other is virtual and is still very much in formation. These civilizations will coexist in a more or less peaceable manner, with each restraining the negative aspects of the other. The virtual world will enable escape from the repression of state control, offering citizens new opportunities to organize and revolt; other citizens will simply connect, learn and play. The physical world will impose rules and laws that help contain the anarchy of virtual space and that protect people from terrorist hackers, misinformation and even from the digital records of their own youthful misbehavior. The permanence of evidence will make it harder for the perpetrators of crimes to minimize or deny their actions, forcing accountability into the physical world in a way never before seen.
The virtual and physical civilizations will affect and shape each other; the balance they strike will come to define our world. In our view, the multidimensional result, though not perfect, will be more egalitarian, more transparent and more interesting than we can even imagine. As in a social contract, users will voluntarily relinquish things they value in the physical world—privacy, security, personal data—in order to gain the benefits that come with being connected to the virtual world. In turn, should they feel that these benefits are being withheld, they’ll use the tools at their disposal to demand accountability and drive change in the physical world.
The case for optimism lies not in sci-fi gadgets or holograms but in the check that technology and connectivity bring against the abuses, suffering and destruction in our world. When exposure meets opportunity, the possibilities are endless. The best thing anyone can do to improve the quality of life around the world is to drive connectivity and technological opportunity. When given the access, the people will do the rest. They already know what they need and what they want to build, and they’ll find ways to innovate with even the meagerest set of tools. Anyone passionate about economic prosperity, human rights, social justice, education or self-determination should consider how connectivity can help us reach these goals and even move beyond them. We cannot eliminate inequality or abuse of power, but through technological inclusion we can help transfer power into the hands of individual people and trust that they will take it from there. It won’t be easy, but it will be worth it.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This book is the product of nearly three years of collaboration, but it would not have been possible without the incredibly generous commitments made by close friends, family and colleagues.
First and foremost, we owe a huge debt of gratitude to Sophie Schmidt, who served as our internal editor on the book for ten months and was a critical partner in its writing. Sophie’s gifted mind, strategic insights and analytical heft helped make the ideas come alive. Her grasp of both the political and the technological worlds uniquely positioned her to help ensure that the book had the right rigor and appropriate balance between tech and foreign policy on the one hand, and present-day analysis and futuristic speculation on the other. Sophie also joined us as part of a traveling trio to a number of the global hot spots that we write about.
We also owe a big thanks to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), who first suggested that we write a piece together for Foreign Affairs in the summer of 2010. That article inspired conversations that led to this book. Special thanks to Richard Haass and the other CFR executives.
We are grateful to our friend Scott Malcomson, who in the early days of the manuscript proved to be an indispensable partner and editorial advisor. Before engaging Scott, we were both admirers of his work as a journalist, foreign-policy thinker and author. His deep generalist knowledge, expertise on the international system and appreciation for the disruptive nature of technology made him the perfect advisor and editor during the critical early drafting stages. What we are most grateful for, however, is the friendship we built with such a wonderful and brilliant person throughout this process.
A special thanks to our first readers of the manuscript: Robert Zoellick, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Michiko Kakutani, Alec Ross and Ian Bremmer. Each of them took time out of his or her very busy schedule to give in-depth feedback and professional perspectives.
We had several research associates, without whom this book would not have been possible. Special thanks to Kate Krontiris, who helped ensure that our boldest claims were rooted in proper quantitative data. We also want to thank Andrew Lim, who was tireless in the research he did, which proved to be relevant to every chapter. Andrew’s ability to conduct thorough research almost overnight impressed both of us. We also want to thank Thalia Beaty, who joined us toward the end and was hugely helpful on some of the final research.
Personal interviews proved invaluable, and we want to thank in particular former secretary of state Henry Kissinger; President Paul Kagame of Rwanda; Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak of Malaysia; Mexico’s former president Felipe Calderon; the Saudi prince Al-Waleed bin Talal; Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of Army Staff of the Pakistan Army; Shaukat Aziz, former prime minister of Pakistan; WikiLeaks’ cofounder Julian Assange; Mongolia’s former prime minister Sukhbaatar Batbold; the Mexican businessman Carlos Slim Helú; Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali of Tunisia; the former DARPA administrator turned Googler Regina Dugan; Android’s senior vice-president Andy Rubin; Microsoft’s chief research officer, Craig Mundie; Vodafone’s CEO, Vittorio Colao; the Brookings senior fellow Peter Singer; former Mossad chief Meir Dagan; Taj Hotels’ CIO, Prakash Shukla; and the former Mexican secretary of the economy Bruno Ferrari.
We had a number of friends, colleagues and family who allowed us to impose on them at various stages of the writing process. We’d like to thank Pete Blaustein, a rising star in the field of economics, whose insights proved essential to several chapters of this book; Jeffrey McLean, who offered invaluable strategic insights into the future of combat and conflict; Trevor Thompson, who helped us better understand the future battlefield; and Nicolas Berggruen, who was one of our early motivators in the development of this book and who read some of our earliest drafts.