SUDUN: So, is it your view that our lord, bolstered as he is by his amirs and atabeg soldiers, is doing something other than that himself?
IBN KHALDUN: My dear viceroy, do not put words into my mouth. Sultan al-Zahir Sayf al-Din possesses God-given perspicacity and organizational skills. His actions and his respect for scholarship and those who practice it is clear enough evidence of that.
BARQUQ: Finish your portrait of the tyrant, Timur. You’ve made me want to know more.
IBN KHALDUN: Timur, my lord — and the name in Mongolian means ‘man of iron’—has managed to seize the Banu Hulagu and Banu Dushi-Khan realms by virtue of rigorous discipline, something that grew and then flourished in his own tribe just at the point when it was dwindling among those peoples whom he has vanquished. That discipline is the rigor of the Bedouin in the desert, the very thing I observed throughout the Maghrib region, a powerful force that can easily overwhelm civilized dynasties with their penchant for luxury. His knowledge and strategies are considerable and diverse. Firstly, he is a Muslim. Not only that, but he has compelled the Chagatai to convert to Islam — all in order to pull the rug out from under Muslim peoples who kept calling for a war against him because he was a Magian and thus a polytheist. He makes copious use of informers and spies in various regions and inside palaces; no doubt, there are some in our midst here. Beyond that, his invasions cause massive destruction; he covers whole areas with piles of corpses and skulls so that the dire news will be spread abroad and cause maximum panic.
IBN AL-TUNSI (trying to keep up): The Prophet — on him be peace — said, ‘People’s fears have amplified my own strength, giving me a month’s leeway’ (as recorded by al-Bukhari and Muslim in their collections of authentic hadiths, the Sahihan).
IBN KHALDUN: But Our Prophet had a divine mission, one that he spread among rightly guided people by volition and among poly-theists by fear. He never conquered through the use of tyranny or superior force, but rather by victory and miracle given to him by the One, all-powerful God. Timur, on the other hand, has only one mission: to destroy land and lineage. His only purpose is to sit on the thrones of the world’s kingdoms.
SUDUN (in a provocative tone): So, learned judge, do you really see this lame Bedouin who alarms you so much being able to sit on this throne? Following your general dicta here, does the Burji Mamluk dynasty share the probability of the same limited lifespan as others?
IBN KHALDUN: The lifespan of dynasties is the same as that of every one; it’s all in God’s hands. Eternity is God’s alone. The Mongol tyrant is now exclusive ruler of his people and uses conquered peoples in order to feed his own armies. The only thing that can destroy him now is precisely what destroyed tyrants in past ages, in Macedonia, Persia, and Byzantium: too many invasions, the disorder they bring, and lengthy supply lines between center and periphery. Anything else involves setting up fortifications and armed human shields to protect inhabited areas and cities that need not be impacted by the Mongol firestorm. Previous invasions of countries have often involved long-term strategies, not sudden incursions. The Mongols already occupy large tracts of territory. My lord the sultan should let them wear themselves out grabbing territories in the North and controlling steppes and desert wastes. There is no wisdom in our contesting their rapacious policy. The consequences of doing so may well be severe.
SUDUN (feigning shock): Heaven help us all! Is the judge suggesting we do not go out to confront the tyrant and prevent him wreaking death and destruction among God’s faithful?
IBN KHALDUN: The Mongol invasion is exactly like a hurricane or earthquake; there are bound to be victims and destruction. In such cases the smart thing to do is to let them expend all their energy beyond established limits of security. Our lord al-Zahir Sayf al-Din’s decision to set such limits in Syria was exactly right. He sprang to its defense when the time came, but went no further.
SUDUN: I don’t see how any of this solves the principal issue before us. Do you think the tyrant will attack Damascus again and try to sack it, even when our lord prevented him last time?
IBN KHALDUN: My own opinion is that Timur will certainly return to Syria with an even larger force and greater determination. As usual he’ll start with the weaker parts. In one isolated city he’ll pile up a mound of skulls, then he’ll set fire to another. Preparations will have to be made for such an eventuality, whether it actually happens or God protects us from such a calamity.
BARQUQ (fighting sleep): So now, revered judge, we’ve reached the touchstone of the entire matter. Apart from military preparations that are the province of our fearless generals, give me some advice about other covert factors that might facilitate (and indeed accelerate) our victory.
IBN KHALDUN (staring fixedly at Sudun): Firstly, my lord, by strengthening the domestic front. How? By applying justice, the mainstay of proper kingship. Bribery and graft serve to corrupt morals and values. Injustice is the sure sign of a civilization’s imminent collapse. If the ruler treats his people fairly and respects them, they’ll be much more inclined to respect and love him and fight on his behalf against his enemies.
BARQUQ (gesturing to his recorder to write it all down): Absolutely correct. What else?
IBN KHALDUN: Open up the treasury and spend money on sharpening the war effort and making the prospect of fighting a war attractive to desert warriors. At this point the viceroy may well ask me, ‘Where does the extra money come from? The revenue sources are already known and will not increase.’ In response, my lord, I must offer some very basic advice. Whatever happens, do not further oppress an already weakened people or impose taxes on professionals or farmers. Do not make people even more despondent than they already are or try to force developers to curtail their activities. The only places where you are going to find the necessary money and equipment is in the coffers of the wealthy, people who are living a life of luxury and ease. A portion of their money and property will suffice to build all the buttresses needed to repel the Mongol threat. If they don’t cooperate, their money will vanish and so will they.”
IBN AL-TUNSI: Verily those who store up gold and silver and do not spend them in the path of God, give them the glad tidings of a dire punishment.
SUDUN (exasperated): The notables and senior officials of state will spare nothing to insure our lord’s victory and defend the throne. Ibn Khaldun: Words are confirmed and bolstered by actions. The best charity is that which comes soonest. So let no money be smuggled away, no heirlooms buried, and no documents forged or concealed. The situation is extremely grave. Anyone who fails to appreciate that will perish in his ignorance.
BARQUQ: And what else?
IBN KHLADUN: Exchange of gifts, my lord, exchange of gifts! They are the best way to cement relationships, and a downpayment on peace. In this particular circumstance, the most important gesture would involve the sultans in the Maghrib, chief among them being the Marini sultan. When you send him a letter, remember that he is extremely proud, as were his ancestors. It is a good idea to address him as ‘Commander of the Faithful’ so we don’t have to face the same misunderstandings and alienation that happened between Salah al-Din the Ayyubid and Ya‘qub al-Mansur the Almohad ruler.