THE CHIEF OF STAFF WAS TRYING TO GET THE PRESIDENT TO go to sleep, if only for a few hours. The window between the Chinese Ambassador’s speech and his delivery of the so-called “Friendship Agreement” to the White House provided a short stretch during which the President might nap. However, the Australian Prime Minister had been trying to reach him since the crisis broke and she was patched through to Air Force One. The President took the call in his private cabin; the Secretary of State and the National Security Adviser joined him, along with a junior aide to take notes. “Mr. President, I am deeply sorry to hear about the public health crisis,” the Australian Prime Minister began. “I appreciate the dilemma this has created for you.” Her political fortunes were tied up in the South China Sea Agreement, which was extremely popular in Australia, both because of its collective security arrangements and also because it curbed Chinese overfishing and other behaviors that were harming Australian commercial interests.
“I appreciate your generous gift of Dormigen,” the President said.
The obvious question, of course, was what to do about the South China Sea Agreement. The Australian Prime Minister said that there would be no problem pushing back the signing ceremony for several weeks, or even a month if necessary. She explained, “Obviously our primary concern is that the treaty remain intact with the U.S. as a signatory.”
“We have every intention of honoring that agreement,” the President said.
The Secretary of State added, “We fully understand how important this treaty is to the future of the Pacific region and we are doing everything we can to deal with this situation without compromising our long-term interests.”
The Australian Prime Minister replied, “I think we all know the strings that will be attached to the Chinese Dormigen offer.”
“Yes,” the Secretary of State acknowledged.
The President said, “That bit about flying ‘east or west’ was a nice touch, huh?”
“How has the speech been received?” the Australian Prime Minister asked.
“So far it appears to be a complete bomb,” the President said. “The Chinese Ambassador was perceived as bullying and opportunistic.”
“I’m not surprised. Still, it’s going to be very hard to turn down the Chinese offer if it means American lives will be lost.”
“We’re anticipating the Chinese will ask for the moon,” the National Security Adviser interjected. “Paradoxically, that could make our decision easier.”
“But you have no hint of the specifics?” the Australian Prime Minister asked.
“Not yet,” the President said. In fact, the U.S. had intercepted a large volume of communications between Beijing and the Chinese Embassy in Washington, most of which suggested that China would demand a near-complete withdrawal of U.S. forces in South Korea, Japan, and elsewhere in the region.
The Australian Prime Minister said, “While respecting the delicacy of your situation, what I am hoping to hear, Mr. President, is that you are still committed to the South China Sea Agreement. Might it be possible for you to make a public statement to that effect, even if it were conditional on the contents of the China offer?”
“Let’s draft something,” the President said, looking to the Secretary of State, who nodded agreement.
“That’s great to hear, Mr. President,” the Prime Minister said. “As I said at the outset of the call, the timing of when we sign the agreement is less important than your firm commitment to it.”
“Of course,” the President said. “Can we speak privately for a minute?” This was not unusual. The business of the call having been accomplished, the two leaders would be able to talk without aides listening in. We know that the President and the Australian Prime Minister spoke for roughly another three minutes. There is no record of what was said, and both leaders have been strikingly reticent about the details. Based on subsequent events, however, we have a pretty good idea what the President proposed.
PART 6
NATURE FIGHTS BACK
56.
MY MEDIA DUTIES WERE FINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING. The NIH Director had summoned me back to the NIH offices, where the scientific effort to understand Capellaviridae had been massively bulked up once the crisis became public. Tie Guy was pursuing the notion that efforts to eradicate the North American dust mite had somehow created a new kind of toxicity. He had assembled a team of organic chemists to look at whether the dust mites that survived the pyrethrin-based insecticides might use Capellaviridae to metabolize the poison in a way that makes it harmful to humans. “What do the chemists think?” I asked him when I arrived at the NIH offices.
“They’re skeptical,” he said.
“Why?”
“Because there is no evidence to support the theory. The people who get sick don’t test positive for any form of pyrethrin. Also, there is no obvious explanation for how a virus can turn a compound that is nontoxic for humans into something deadly.”
“A dead end?” I said.
“I don’t think so,” Tie Guy insisted. “I went back and looked at the data again. This connection between trying to eradicate dust mites and the virulent form of Capellaviridae holds up. So does that other strange pattern we saw: when people get sick with Capellaviridae in areas where the North American dust mite is not endemic, those people have almost always moved from a region where it is endemic.”
“Moving away from an area where the virus is common is more likely to make you sick than staying there?” I said, trying to make sense of what he was saying. I was operating on relatively little sleep.
“Yeah, how weird is that?” Tie Guy said. “It’s all ass-backwards. The safest place to be is an area with no North American dust mites and no Capellaviridae. No surprise there. But the next-best place to be is an area where dust mites and Capellaviridae are common and there has been no widespread extermination effort.”
I tried to finish his thought: “And you are most at risk of Capellaviridae turning virulent if you are in an area where you try to wipe it out—”
“Where people are trying to wipe out the dust mite, the carrier, but yes.”
I continued, “And someone would be at risk if they live in an area with Capellaviridae and then move away.”
“Yes, but you’re only at risk if you move to an area without it. If you move to another area where the North American dust mite and Capellaviridae are endemic, you’ll be fine.”
“How is that possible?” I asked, completely flummoxed.
“You tell me. I’m just a data guy. Ask these people,” he said, motioning to the throng of activity all around us. There were easily twice as many people on the floor as there had been on my earlier visits. A frenetic pace had replaced the complacency that had been so disorienting before the Outbreak became public. Tie Guy continued, “There’s something to this, right?”
“It’s weird.”
“Nature fights back, that’s what it’s telling me,” he insisted.
“How so?” I asked. If I had had more sleep, maybe it would have been more obvious to me.
“Because the virus, or maybe the dust mite, or maybe both—they’re saying, ‘Don’t get rid of me. If you do, you’ll pay a price.’”
“That would be unprecedented,” I said.
“So was AIDS,” Tie Guy replied. “Evolution does some pretty crazy things.”
“You may be right,” I said. “I just don’t know how or why.”