Reza nodded. “Yes, I think it is time to tell the others the real plan, not the one I have had “Al-Nadha” selling to everyone. First, while I do intend for two of the nuclear devices to be used on Saudi desalination plants, the third will not be detonated in a major Eastern province oil field. Instead, now that you have confirmed it is possible, I plan to drop it on Riyadh.”
If Reza had expected shock from Bijan, he was disappointed. “Well, that makes sense. Nearly all of the central government is there, including almost all high-ranking members of the royal family. Command and control of Saudi armed forces will be severely disrupted, and the substantial military forces guarding the capital will be destroyed. More of the Saudis’ oil money has gone to building hospitals, universities and other institutions in Riyadh than any other city.”
Bijan paused. “But above all, the city has well over five million residents, about a fifth of the entire Saudi nation. Yes, losing Riyadh would be a mortal blow.”
Reza smiled. “I’m so glad you approve.”
Bijan ignored Reza’s sardonic tone and asked, “Are you concerned about the American reaction to the likely destruction of Eskan Village Air Base, as well as the death of their diplomatic personnel at the US Embassy? I am not sure how many American diplomats are in Riyadh, but I recall about two thousand Americans are stationed at Eskan. It is true that the base is on the outskirts of the city and so some at Eskan may survive, but I think the odds are against it.”
Reza shook his head decisively. “No. The Americans will not use their nuclear weapons against us. They would think of it as sinking to our level, since any nuclear attack on Iran would kill far more than two thousand. I think a conventional military strike is certain, probably by air. We will need to move the Assembly of Experts to a prepared location as soon as the weapon detonates in Riyadh.”
Bijan cocked his head. “Not sooner?”
Reza shook his head even more vigorously. “Definitely not. What would we tell them? No, the attack must be kept secret until the last possible moment. Besides, the fact that Qom is a holy city may prevent the Americans from attacking it at all. They may limit their strikes to our military bases, since after all an American military base will be what we destroyed.”
Bijan decided not to raise the casualties among US Embassy Riyadh personnel again, since Reza clearly saw them as unimportant. “Well, at least there we are prepared. We’ve spent years anticipating an American or Israeli air attack, so our most important military assets are underground, in mountain excavations, or in hardened bunkers that can withstand all but the largest conventional warheads."
Reza nodded. “Excellent. But I see from your expression that you still have concerns.”
Bijan frowned. He wasn’t aware he was that easy to read, but quickly realized that was a skill to be expected from someone sitting in the chair of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Even if he was a temporary occupant.
Of course, if this plan succeeded Reza might be in that chair a lot longer, he thought. Not for the first time.
Aloud, he asked, “Even if the attack on Riyadh is successful and the Saudis are thrown into chaos, do we really expect to take over the entire Kingdom?
Because that’s what we’d have to do to take over Mecca and Medina. I think the resistance we’d face would make what the Americans dealt with in Iraq child’s play by comparison.”
Reza simply nodded. “i am aware of the problems you describe. However, control of Mecca and Medina is not my goal.”
Bijan started, genuinely surprised. “Then, what is?”
Reza smiled. “You know that most Saudi oil is in the Eastern Province, near the Persian Gulf. Where the majority of its residents are Shi’a. Who have been severely repressed by the Saudis. If we destroy Riyadh, and appear in the Eastern Province with a substantial armored force, wouldn’t most there greet us as liberators?”
Bijan was silent for a moment. Having just spoken of Iraq, the Americans’ naive belief that they would be welcomed because they had overthrown
Saddam was still fresh in his mind. He quickly realized, though, that this time Reza was right.
After the best known Saudi Shi’a religious leader, Sheik Nimr Baqir al-Nimr, was executed in 2016 the authorities added to the Shi’a community’s sense of outrage by refusing to give his body to his family for burial. The following year the Shi’a town of Al-Awamiyah was razed by government forces claiming it was a terrorist base, forcing those of its twenty-five thousand inhabitants who were not killed outright to flee.
The Eastern Province just might rise in rebellion if given the chance.
Bijan slowly nodded. “Maybe. But what if they don’t? They might not actively resist us, but instead just hide in their homes. After all, many of them probably have relatives living in Riyadh they’ll never see again after our attack.”
Reza frowned, and Bijan sensed he’d raised a problem that hadn’t occurred to him before. Of course, he thought grimly, when you’re inflicting mass casualties unforeseen problems were to be expected.
“Well, if occupying the Eastern Province turns out not to be feasible, there are two other possibilities,” Reza said with a smile.
Bijan wasn’t sure he wanted to hear the answer, but knew he had to ask the question. “Which two would those be?”
Reza’s smile now reminded Bijan of a cartoon he had once seen of a shark swimming up to a beach, and grinning as it pointed up at the legs of the swimmers with one of its fins.
“Bahrain,” Reza said simply.
Bijan frowned. “Yes, I remember hearing a few years back that they had discovered a large new offshore field. About eighty billion barrels of oil and twenty trillion cubic feet of natural gas, if I remember correctly. But we have plenty of oil and gas of our own, surely?”
Reza nodded. “We do. But access to Bahrain’s resources could give us far more. And since over seventy percent of Bahrain’s citizens are Shi’a, we can expect them to welcome our help in overthrowing the Sunni Al Khalifa dynasty in Manama. Remember that in 2011 the Al Khalifas nearly came to an end as protesters overwhelmed the police. Only the intervention of the Saudi military saved them that time. This time, the Saudis will be far too busy to rescue them."
Bijan shrugged. “Perhaps. But do we have the resources to take on the Saudis as well as launching an invasion of Bahrain?”
Reza smiled, but this time instead of a shark Bijan thought of a sly fox.
With some irritation, he thought that Reza might be a bit too impressed with himself.
“You know that about one hundred thousand Bahrainis, or about fifteen percent of the total population, are Ajam?”
Bijan raised his eyebrows and shook his head. “No, I didn’t know that the number of Bahrainis of Iranian origin was that high. I do know that they speak both Farsi and Arabic.”
Reza nodded approvingly. “Correct. The Ajam are key to our plans. We have been smuggling them weapons for the past two years, and have secretly brought their leaders with military experience here for further training. I have had Pasdaran agents in Bahrain coordinating with them as well as other Shi’a leaders during that time. If our plans succeed in Saudi Arabia we will seize Manama Airport, and fly in whatever additional forces we need. But the bulk of our invasion force… is already there.”
Bijan knew better than to ask why he, a high-ranking Pasdaran officer, had not been told about these actions. Up until now, he hadn’t needed to know.
“You mentioned two possibilities?”