Hamid wasn’t concerned that the four planes inbound could do any real damage to his force. Instead, it was that they would definitely establish it as a real threat as soon as they were shot down. He had been told that the S-300’s missiles outranged anything the Saudis had, and so expected no casualties from this engagement.
That expectation lasted less than five minutes, when a tremendous explosion on his force’s far-right flank made him and everyone else in his tank instinctively duck.
A dark circle on his command console that had been lit told Hamid what he had already feared from the size of the explosion — one of his two S-300s had been destroyed. Willing himself to calm, Hamid picked up his handset and keyed the commander of the surviving S-300. Since the S-300s had been added to his force just before they crossed the Saudi border, he did not know either batteries’ commander.
“Report,” Hamid ordered.
“Yes, sir. Commander Khalilli here. Three enemy contacts confirmed destroyed. The fourth appears to be damaged, and is returning to base at low speed.” The commander paused. “The other S-300 has been destroyed by an enemy air-to-ground missile. A nearby armored personnel carrier was also destroyed.”
Hamid grit his teeth. Better and better. Now there would be an eye witness account of his force’s advance. The weather forecast had been for strong winds to whip up enough desert sand to obscure his force’s location. Instead, there was nothing but a mild breeze, so thanks to the dust cloud they created as they moved his force’s camouflage didn’t conceal their approximate size and position.
Or apparently prevent lock-on to an S-300.
“Commander, explain how the enemy was able to destroy one of the S-300s,” Hamid ordered.
“Yes, sir. We have to remove the camouflage netting to fire. It was less than a minute from removal to firing, but it seems that was long enough for one enemy plane to get a lock,” the commander explained.
“I was told your missiles outrange anything the enemy planes carry.
Explain how an enemy plane was able to successfully fire even a single missile,” Hamid ordered, trying to rein in his growing impatience.
“Sir, I have two answers to that. The first is that enemy plane was the only Typhoon, and the others were F-15s. The Typhoon had a Brimstone 2 missile, with double the range of any ground attack missile we thought the Saudis had. So, we waited too long to fire.”
There was a deadly silence. “Waited, Commander?” Hamid asked quietly.
“Yes, sir. The commander of the other S-300 was my superior. He ordered us to wait to fire until the enemy was well within our engagement envelope, to conceal our true capabilities. I believed that was a mistake, but was overruled.”
Hamid considered this. Of course, he could be talking to the commander who made that mistake, and was now trying to shift the blame to someone no longer alive to defend himself.
But, he didn’t think so. Like all senior officers, Hamid had plenty of experience listening to excuses, and he could hear real resentment at being overruled in the commander’s voice.
“Very well, Commander. How do we keep this from happening again?”
Hamid asked.
“Sir, we will obviously engage any enemy aircraft as soon as they are within range. We will also give launch priority to any attacking Typhoon.
Now, there is another matter I need to address.”
“Yes?”, Hamid said, making a conscious effort to control his impatience.
“A drone flying at high altitude has been observing us for some time. My superior decided not to report it to you because he did not wish to reveal our true capabilities by shooting it down. He also told me he considered it a waste of our limited stock of missiles to use one to destroy a drone that is unarmed.”
Hamid shook his head. “And how, Commander, could he possibly know that the drone is unarmed?”
“Sir, I agreed with him on that point. Its flight profile, both speed and altitude, match the American drone called Triton. So does the size of its radar return. Also, if it were an attack drone, they would have logically used it against us before sending in manned aircraft. Where I disagreed was with the decision not to shoot it down.”
Hamid nodded to himself. Maybe this man wasn’t a total idiot. “Explain, Commander.”
“Well, sir, thanks to the current low winds we’re leaving a dust cloud behind us as we move that gives away our position to the drone, even through the best camouflage. I’m sure you don’t want that. I must point out, however, that the drone has moved well away from us since we downed the enemy aircraft. Though we could still successfully engage it, doing so would reveal nearly our entire potential firing range.”
Hamid grunted. So, shooting down this drone now would have a cost.
“Commander, can it still see us from its current position?” Hamid asked.
“Oh, yes. From its current altitude of fifty-five thousand feet it can see about two thousand square miles.”
Hamid shook his head. “Presumably the Americans can send another if we shoot this one down.”
“Yes, sir,” the Commander said. “However, from what we know these drones are based in Italy, and so it would take some time to get here.”
Hamid made his decision. “Very well, continue to track the drone, but leave it alone for now. The forecast is still for winds to pick up soon, and if they do I’m hoping the drone will lose us. I’m sure the Saudis will try another air attack soon, and this time I don’t want any survivors.”
“Yes, sir. And there is some good news,” the Commander said.
“Yes, Commander? I would certainly welcome some.”
“We keep the replacement missile trailers well separated from the launchers, so the total number of missiles we will be able to launch will not be badly affected, particularly since four of the ones the destroyed S-300 had with it were successfully launched. Our rate of fire will be reduced, but if we prioritize the Typhoons I believe we can still protect this force from enemy air attack,” the commander said confidently.
“Excellent, Commander. Keep me informed,” Hamid said, signing off.
As he stuck his head outside his rapidly moving tank, Hamid could see the oily smoke rising behind them from the destroyed S-300.
Well, he mused, at least there was no reason to doubt the surviving S-300 commander’s motivation.
Abdul Rasool looked at the massive bulk of the Chinook cargo helicopter, and was impressed that they had been able to fit it in the hangar. When he saw the size of the air-launched nuclear weapon being loaded into its cargo bay, he understood why it had to be the Chinook.
Abdul shook his head. The conversation in the Brussels cafe where he’d talked so casually about overthrowing the Saudi monarchy with Farhad Mokri seemed to have happened years ago. Now in a matter of minutes, it would become a reality.
When Farhad had explained to Abdul that the strike they had originally planned against Saudi oil production simply wouldn't work, and that instead they had to attack Riyadh, at first he had resisted the idea. Then, as they had discussed it further, Abdul finally agreed it was the only way to be absolutely sure of ending the royal family's control. The price would be terrible but it had to be paid, especially since there was no guarantee that all three experimental devices would work, or for that matter that any would.
Abdul also agreed that everything depended on a coordinated strike. Once one of the devices detonated, security all over the Kingdom would ramp up automatically. In particular, Saudi air space would certainly be closed to all but military traffic.
Farhad had explained that the bombs’ designer had told him the approximate time to detonation for each device. When he'd pressed the designer for a more precise answer, Farhad had told Abdul with a grin that the man growled, “What part of ‘experimental nuclear weapons’ isn’t clear to you?”