“Okay, first, the summary of the latest intelligence estimate on China, a briefing from the Intelligence Analysis Center, Mr. MacIntyre,” the National Security Advisor intoned, sounding as though he were chairing someone’s Ph.D. oral exam.
As MacIntyre opened his briefing book, a wooden panel receded into the wall, revealing a large plasma screen. On it flashed the first slide of his briefing, “China Emboldened by Economic Power.” He began, “The stunning economic growth that China experienced over the last decade has enabled it to modernize its cities, create a domestic automobile industry that is now successfully exporting here, develop its own impressive technological research capability, and deploy a potent, although smaller, military.” Pictures of the Beijing Olympics venues, the Gwangju skyline, and a research park appeared on the screen, followed by charts showing China’s dramatic economic growth.
“With this progress has come the usual downsides of modernization, including social disruption, particularly in rural areas and in the old industrial cities, industrial and vehicular air pollution, and, most important, a growth in their oil and gas requirements. As you can see from this chart, China is now a close second to the United States in oil and gas imports. It may surpass us in the next two years. They are still well below us in electricity generated per capita, so we can expect the import curve to continue up as they will need more gas to generate higher amounts of electricity.
“This makes China dependent, again, on Russia and the former Soviet states in central Asia, from which they get the bulk of their oil and gas imports. Intelligence sources report that the Chinese leadership does not like that dependence and is seeking to diversify its sources. That may be why we see their new presence in Islamyah, which I will get to in a minute.” MacIntyre realized he had their rapt attention.
As Rusty was about to launch into the military brief, Treasury Secretary Fulton Winters seemed to awaken and broke the trance Rusty had induced on the Principals. Winters usually stopped rolling his tie up and down long enough to deliver one delphic pronouncement per meeting.
“Usually people talk about the Chinese military threat to America,” Winters began. “There really isn’t one. The Chinese economy is tied completely to ours. We are their market. Now, it’s true that they hold most of our government debt through purchases of T-notes and, theoretically, they could sell them or stop buying them. That would spike inflation here and probably burst the real estate bubble. But they won’t”—Winters smiled—“because an economic divorce would hurt them much more than it would us.”
No one commented. Winters returned to rolling his tie.
Rusty continued, “Well, actually, one of the more surprising strategic developments has been the growth of the Chinese navy. For decades, they had utilized Soviet castoffs and small, lowtechnology coastal ships such as frigates and destroyers. Then they bought some modern cruisers and primitive aircraft carriers from Ukraine and Russia. Now, within the last five years, they have put into service three modern, indigenously designed aircraft carriers with strike and fighter aircraft, the Zheng He, the Hung Bao, and the Zhou Man. They also built a port at Gwadar in Pakistan, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
“They have also launched their own air defense cruisers and nuclear-powered submarines. The visit of their Zhou Man carrier battle group to Sydney last year gave us a good chance to take a closeup look in many ways, and these are impressive ships,” MacIntyre said, showing photographs of the Chinese ships at port in Australia.
“Zhou Man sounds like something my fourteen-year-old son would say,” General Burns joked.
“Actually, General, Zhou Man was a Chinese admiral whose fleet explored Australia and much more around 1420,” MacIntyre replied. “The other carriers are also named for admirals from the 1400s whose fleets explored the Pacific and Indian oceans. The message in the names is that the Chinese navy once ruled the world’s seas supreme and may again. But enough about the Chinese navy: to more immediate matters…” MacIntyre said, hitting the clicker that brought up a new image on the flat screen.
It was a stunningly vivid picture of the missile base in Islamyah. Rusty began his presentation. “IAC analysts discovered this new Chinese-made missile complex in Islamyah two days ago. It appears ready to go operational. In 1987 the Saudis secretly acquired Chinese medium-range missiles. Confronted by the Reagan administration, they pledged that the missiles would not be nuclear-armed. The CEP of those missiles was such that they could have done little damage to anyone, except perhaps their own launch crews who handled the liquid fuel in the aboveground launch facilities.”
The National Security Advisor, who was reading his briefing book, looked up above his glasses. “CEP?”
“Circular error probability, Billy. It’s their accuracy,” the Secretary of Defense chided. “Go on, go on,” he said, flicking his wrist at MacIntyre.
“Now, two decades later, replacement missiles show up. Some mobile missiles on trucks and some silo-based, solid-fuel, highly accurate. In the Chinese strategic forces, they carry nuclear weapons, three per missile. Intelligence indicates that there are twenty-three hundred Chinese personnel at the main base, in the middle of the Empty Quarter. We estimate twenty-four missiles on launchers, probably some reloads.
“Beyond their military value, this secret deployment indicates that the Chinese have a much closer relationship with the revolutionary regime in Riyadh than we had earlier estimated. Although the missiles were originally ordered by the al Sauds, the delivery and deployment went ahead in secret after the revolution. We believe that the cash-strapped Islamyah government, suffering from our sanctions, is paying in oil.
“There is no indication yet from a variety of special intelligence programs and sources, nothing that indicates the presence of any nuclear weapons. We estimate that China would be reluctant to provide such warheads in violation of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty and that the accuracy of these weapons is such that…”
“Bullshit, MacIntyre!” Secretary of Defense Conrad interrupted, leaning forward once again, his scowling face and dark eyes focused like a laser on Rusty. “What the fuck do you think they bought these things for, Chinese fireworks for Ramadan?” The Situation Room was suddenly still; all eyes were on the SECDEF, who continued his tirade.
“I’m telling you that these al Qaeda murderers in Riyadh are out to get nuclear capability. Maybe Beijing won’t give them the bomb, maybe. But they can get it from the nuts in North Korea or their al Qaeda East buddies in Pakistan. You mean to tell me those guys in Islamabad won’t sell their ideological brethren a few of their bombs? Hell, A. Q. Khan was doing it a decade ago out of the Pakistani larder.” No one spoke as Conrad shook his head and pursed his lips. “IAC just doesn’t understand the threat these regimes pose.”
Finally, MacIntyre raised his hand with two fingers up and spoke slowly but forcefully. “I disagree, for two reasons. First, these weapons were clearly ordered by our friends the al Sauds while they were in power. The lead time is such that they could not have been both ordered and delivered in the year since the Sauds were thrown out. Second, only a Chinese-made warhead could be mated to these missiles. You can’t just take a big Pakistani aerial bomb and fit it on a CSS-27. These things are precision weapons. I think for now what we have is a very accurate, high-explosive delivery system, a blockbuster in the original sense of the term, a weapon that has been brought in to deter Iran by bringing downtown Tehran under range of conventionally armed missiles.”
The Secretary of Defense emitted a sound, “Pfffft,” as he flipped through his briefing book.