We were meeting in the Situation Room, and Richard put one of the analysts on the spot. A Navy Commander flashed a map of the border region up on a screen and overlaid it with some symbols. “Current projections have them still maneuvering assault and support units towards the border. It’s still February, and Kurdistan is very cold right now, but will warm shortly, in another month or two. By summer it will be blistering hot. The campaign season will begin by the end of March, maybe earlier if the weather improves, and run through the end of November. At the current pace, if they want to attack in March, they will be on schedule for that.”
She flashed another map up on the screen. “The main focus of their assault units is currently in Tikrit, a Sunni stronghold south of Kirkuk. From there they can quickly push forward to the border, with a first leap to the border, and then a second into Kurdistan itself. Depending on their focus, we are either looking at an assault east of Kirkuk, one centered between Erbil and Kirkuk, or possibly both, in an attempt to isolate and surround Kirkuk. After subduing Kirkuk, they would be positioned to move on Erbil, and then Mosul. It all depends on the level of resources they have to commit.”
“And that level currently is?” I pressed.
“Unsure, sir. Certainly enough to capture Kirkuk and thoroughly trash it. Moving on to Erbil would probably require some consolidation and major resupply,” she replied.
I grunted a response and looked around. “So, what do we do about this? Do we back down, or do we back up the Kurds? Assuming the Iraqis actually do something, I mean.”
“We have to back the Kurds! We can’t cave to Hussein,” answered John McCain.
“It’s as simple as that? We go to war? Nothing less?”
“Yes, sir. It’s as simple as that. We are backing these people now, and we have troops on the line training them. If there is an attack, we are going to lose troops,” he replied.
“So, do we pull the troops? Try and deescalate things?” I pushed back.
“It won’t work, Mister President,” responded Condi Rice, the Secretary of State. “Pulling back will be taken as a sign of weakness, not of trying to calm things down. It will be seen as weakness by Hussein, as well as by the Kurds and by Erdogan.”
I grunted at that. “Turkey’s a member of NATO. Any chance we can get NATO in on this?”
“Marginal. They are only obligated if a fellow member of NATO is attacked. If Hussein goes after Turkey, maybe then,” she said.
“If we do go in, we will need Turkish assets. At the minimum, we will need to use Incirlik to fly combat patrols out of. Will they go along with that?” I asked.
Condi looked over at Tom Ridge, the Secretary of Defense. He nodded back to her. She turned back to me and said, “Everything I am hearing is they are prepared to cooperate. They might not send in troops, but they will allow overflights and cross border support. Erdogan is very interested in calming the Kurds down in the eastern part of the country.”
“Is there any chance that we can get Hussein to back down on this? Does he understand that he is looking at Gulf War Two with this?” I asked, to no one in particular.
“I don’t think it makes a difference, Mister President.” I turned to face the speaker, Eric Shinseki, the National Security Adviser. After the Able Danger incident, I had brought him on board officially as Deputy National Security Adviser under Condoleeza Rice. Now that she was the Secretary of State, he had moved up to his old boss’ job. “Iraq’s foreign policy is whatever wacky idea Saddam Hussein wakes up with. The man is a textbook psychopath, and I am not being facetious. The only thing he cares about is staying in power. If he kills off every last person in the country but himself, that is just fine as far as he is concerned. Current estimates are that Hussein is facing internal pressure related to their collapsing economy, and needs an external threat to distract the public. This fills the bill. The average Iraqi doesn’t like the Kurds. Hussein’s been spending the last fifteen years rebuilding his army. He figures it’s about time he used it.”
“Shit!” I muttered. Unfortunately, it made sense. “Does anybody here disagree with Eric? Is there any chance we are going to be able to smart our way out of this?”
There were a lot of silent faces looking back at me. The Vice President said, “Carl, you know what we have to do.”
“Doesn’t mean I have to like it, John.” He snorted and gave me a half smile. He was right, too. I knew what needed to be done. I shrugged and said, “Okay, then let’s do it.”
I looked around the table. “We need to try to shut this down. If we can’t, we need to prepare. Condi, you and Tom get to play diplomat. I want you on Air Force One tomorrow, first stop Ankara. I want you to discuss this whole situation with Erdogan. If he can pressure Hussein to back down, fine, but if we have to go in, get him on board. After that, see everybody else you need to. Tom, you need to do double duty. You and the Joint Chiefs need to start getting assets figured out. I don’t want to send in troops now, but we are going to need some options. Get me those options.” I turned next to Eric. “Eric, I want you running point with NATO. Start trying to drum up some support, characterize it as supporting Turkey, a fellow NATO member. The Brits will probably assist, but see what you can do with the others, too.”
“Yes, sir,” said Tom. Condi and Eric nodded in agreement.
“Condi, prep things for a phone call to Putin. Iraq’s a Russian client. Maybe he has some pull.”
She nodded at that.
“Richard, you crank up anything you have for intel.” I looked over at Winston Creedmore, who had been added to the National Security Council. “Does Counter Terrorism have anything on this?”
“No, but I’ll order a top level verification on this. Maybe the Russians have something we can access,” he replied.
I nodded. “Thank you. This doesn’t look like it is going to start for another month or two, so we should be safe with a meeting next week. Frank will schedule something for when Condi, Tom, and Eric get back.” I looked around and saw people nodding and taking notes. “Thank you. John, I need to see you privately.”
John and I went upstairs to the Oval Office, where we sat down in a couple of armchairs. “I am getting a very bad feeling that we are going to have to do something about that asshole,” I told him.
“Who, Saddam Hussein?” he asked. I nodded grimly, and he asked, “Sorry you didn’t help your predecessor in taking him out?”
I grimaced at that. “No, not really. That was different. George and that bunch wanted to invade Iraq and make it into America Junior. They had no plan for ever getting out, and didn’t want to, in fact. I am nowhere near as certain as they were. I’d be satisfied to kick his ass up between his ears and go home.”
“And do you think we can do that? I don’t. I think we are going to have to take him out of the game for good this time.”
I sighed. “That’s what I’m afraid of. It’s one thing to send in a few A-teams and fly patrols out of Incirlik. This is shaping up to be a major campaign. I do not want to get bogged down halfway around the world trying to invade Iraq!”
“Carl, you may not have a choice. Short of dumping the Kurds to their fate, we will have to get involved,” he told me.
I sighed and nodded. “I know. Just because I don’t like it, it doesn’t mean I won’t do it.”