The situation infuriated the Russians, being forced to obtain the permission of foreign governments — NATO ones at that — to travel between two autonomous regions of their country. Years earlier, when Russia announced its intention to station additional military units in Kaliningrad Oblast, NATO had objected, blocking transit. Russia’s military, still reeling from the disintegration of the Soviet Union, was too weak to force the issue. That was no longer the case.
Dunnavant continued, “It’s still early, but what’s different so far is the Russian force distribution. Russia’s last invasion of Lithuania utilized only two brigades for the initial assault and a total of eight once reinforcements arrived. This time, eleven brigades have already been committed; half of the troops mobilized for the Zapad war games.
“The higher concentration of Russian forces in Lithuania is partly to be expected, as there isn’t much left of the Ukrainian Army after Russia’s last incursion. Russia destroyed most of the Ukrainian Army equipment, reducing the remaining Ukrainian troops to riflemen at this point, easily overwhelmed by Russian mechanized forces. They won’t be able to stop Russian troops from reaching the Dnieper River, seizing the eastern portion of Ukraine.
“What Andropov plans to do with the additional troops in the Lithuanian corridor is a concern. It could be a defensive move, placing troops where a NATO assault is most likely. A NATO offensive in Ukraine would have to cross Western Ukraine first, giving Russia time to redeploy units, while the Lithuanian corridor is very close to Poland. NATO could strike quickly once sufficient forces are assembled.”
The president replied, “Andropov said he intends to install Russian-friendly governments in the Baltic States. That could be why there are more troops headed toward Kaliningrad.”
“It could be a ruse,” General Okey Watson, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said. “You don’t need that many troops to control the Baltic States. Lithuania has only four thousand combat-ready troops. Estonia and Latvia are in a similar position. Fully mobilized, the Baltic States can field twenty thousand combat troops at best.”
“What about the rest of NATO?” the president asked.
Dunnavant answered, “For immediate response, there’s NATO’s Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, deployable within twenty-four hours, but it’s a single brigade of five thousand troops. It’s a component of the NATO Response Force, with another thirty-five thousand troops, deployable in five to seven days. We also have two U.S. combat brigades in Europe under Operation Atlantic Resolve, established after Russia’s previous attempt to seize territory in Ukraine and Lithuania. We’re talking fifty thousand troops, which isn’t near enough. It will take several weeks before the necessary forces are mobilized.”
“I understand the situation in Europe,” the president said. “What else is Russia up to?”
Admiral Brian Rettman, Chief of Naval Operations, replied, “Russia’s Northern, Baltic, and Black Sea submarines are sortieing to sea. We think Russia will try to blockade the entrances to the Baltic and Black Seas and eliminate any NATO submarines within. This would force NATO Navy strikes to occur from farther out to sea, putting some targets out of range.”
Dunnavant added, “So far, the Russian strategy appears straightforward: blockade the Baltic and Black Seas and annex Eastern Ukraine and part of Lithuania, installing friendly governments in the Baltic States in the process. NATO can’t intervene without the U.S., and we can’t respond until we have a remedy for what Russia did to our nuclear triad. Until then, I recommend no military action on our part.”
The president asked, “What do we know about the Trident missile and B-2 bomber issues?”
“The B-2 pilots ejected,” Dunnavant replied, “and we’ve learned that all four aircraft lost power. The crews tried every method to restore power and failed. Regarding the Trident missile, we know almost nothing so far. Only that new warhead aim points were somehow inserted. Whether those aim points were dormant within the missile or transmitted from another source, we don’t know yet. We’re just now beginning to peel the onion apart. NCIS is taking the lead, with OSI — the Air Force’s version of NCIS — in a supporting role. They’ll focus first on common elements between the bombers and Trident missile.”
The president reflected on the information provided, then made his decision. “I want a three-pronged effort. The top priority is figuring out what Russia has done to our nuclear triad and how to correct it. Until we’ve addressed this issue, I have to agree with SecDef — there will be no observable movement of U.S. forces. In the meantime, mobilize all conventional units and have them deployable within a day’s notice. Move transportation assets into place at the air bases and ports, but keep the military units where they are.”
The president added, “Note that I said observable movement. Deploy all submarines to wherever makes sense, but don’t attempt to penetrate the Baltic or Black Sea blockades if they’re established.”
To SecDef Dunnavant, the president said, “Take the lead on both of these.
“On the diplomatic front, we need to organize support for a military response once we’ve addressed the issue with our nuclear triad.” To SecState Dawn Cabral, the president asked, “What’s the status within NATO?”
Cabral replied, “An emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council will occur within the hour, but the council representatives won’t have authorization to commit NATO to a war with Russia. That’s going to take a meeting with the heads of state from all twenty-nine nations. I expect NATO to schedule that meeting for tomorrow. I’ll keep you informed as I learn more, but you should plan to travel to Brussels tonight.”
The president nodded his understanding, then asked, “What do we know about the Russian coup?”
CIA Director Cherry replied, “It’s not clear what we’re dealing with yet. General Andropov is issuing orders under the pretense they’re coming from President Kalinin, but we don’t know what’s happened to him. We’ve reviewed satellite imagery and as best we can tell, Kalinin hasn’t left Gelendzhik. Russian military forces have taken control of his summer residence, but whether he is alive or dead is unknown. Andropov stated he intends to transfer power back to Kalinin, but there’s no way to know his true intent.”
“Anything on Christine O’Connor?” the president asked.
“She has not left Gelendzhik either,” Cherry replied. “We tried to contact her, but cell phone signals are blocked.”
The president studied the grim faces around the table. “Any questions?”
There were none, and the president said, “Time is of the essence. The longer Russia has to dig in, the tougher our job becomes. And I shouldn’t have to point out how vulnerable we are without nuclear strike capability. This needs to be a full-court-press, twenty-four/seven effort.”
27
FORT BLISS, TEXAS
It was approaching 6 p.m. as Major General Dutch Hostler stood before the mirror, knotting his tie. Not far away, his wife, Megan, was putting the final touches on her makeup as the pair looked forward to celebrating her birthday with friends. After one final tug of his tie, Hostler deemed the operation a success. He reached for his coat, his eyes catching a copy of his division’s insignia framed on the walclass="underline" a triangular blue, yellow, and red patch representing the three basic components of mechanized armor units — infantry, cavalry, and artillery — with a large “1” at the top of the triangle.
1st Armored Division—Old Ironsides—had a distinguished history. It was the first armored division of the U.S. Army to see battle in World War II and it spent much of its existence in Europe, stationed in West Germany in 1971 during the Cold War. In 2011, the unit returned to the United States and its new home at Fort Bliss.