The commerce secretary looked carefully from face to face.
“If conditions do not change, our analysis indicates we can expect a total South African economic collapse in less than a year. Even the harshest imaginable austerity measures can delay such a collapse by a year beyond that at most.”
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Walter
Hickman, had been silent up to this point. As the commerce secretary paused, he broke in.
“I think that assessment may be a little extreme, Mr.
Vice President. I remember several predictions that Iran’s economy would completely collapse in the 1980s, during its war with Iraq. None of them came true. Massive inflation and unemployment, sure. But not total chaos.”
Reid showed no signs of being disturbed by Hickman’s disagreement.
“The difference, General, is that Iran’s population wholeheartedly supported the war with Iraq. Fanaticism can feed people for quite a while.” He shook his head slowly.
“But South Africa is much more divided-even the white community is split over Vorster’s racial policies and the Namibian war.
There is no one flag that everyone can rally around. “
Hurley pressed hint.
“What exactly do you mean by ‘collapse’?”
“Reduced production from the mines and factories, followed by food and fuel shortages. At first, those shortages will only affect the poorest, most vulnerable segments of South Africa’s population-the blacks, coloreds,
Indians, and other nonwhite ethnic groups. But the country’s whites won’t be immune for long. As things get steadily worse, anyone who can leave, will-draining South Africa of the skilled people most needed to keep its economy running. ” Reid looked suddenly grim.
“In the final stages, we could expect widespread violence and looting-with daily death tolls that would make what we’ve seen so far look like a picnic. And add this factor-there is no country willing to come to South Africa’s aid, no source of outside assistance to stop a headlong slide into chaos.”
My God. Forrester winced at the horrific images conjured up by the commerce secretary’s matter-of-fact words. Idle, abandoned factories and shops. Burning homes. Floods of refugees fleeing starving cities. Bodies littering the streets. Genocide. Race war. Unbidden, the term popped into his brain-Armageddon in South Africa.
He turned to Hickman.
“General, could this goddamned war go on for this year or two the secretary’s talking about?”
Hickman nodded slowly, reluctantly.
“Yes, sir, easily that long. Barring internal collapse in either Cuba or South Africa, this could be another bloody stalemate. Neither side holds a clear military advantage. The communist forces are at the end of a long supply line, and Soviet-style logistics are nothing to brag about. Hell, we’d have trouble fighting down there ourselves!”
Hickman stared moodily at a wall map showing the world.
“On the other hand, South Africa’s increasingly isolated and bogged down in a racial mess of its own creation. ” He looked up at Forrester.
“Nope, Mr. Vice
President. As things stand now, these people can keep killing each other from now until doomsday without achieving much of anything.”
Hurley added the final kicker.
“And neither side has much reason to seek a political settlement. Having started this thing, Vorster can’t afford to settle for anything less than all of Namibia. And Castro’s pride won’t let him aim for anything less than driving every single Afrikaner back across the South African frontier. Every bit of international support he’s gained will disappear unless he ends the war with a clear victory.”
Forrester understood the implications. It was going to be a long war.
Worse than that, the conflict showed signs of spreading like a virus, affecting any country that bordered on South Africa or Namibia. The
United States could not afford to let that happen. Besides the economic considerations, the loss of life would be tremendous. America would have to act, and act effectively, or she would be blamed for her inaction.
Forrester tapped his notepad impatiently with his pen.
“All right, people, what can we do? The President is looking for specific recommendations.”
Nicholson spoke first.
“The Namibian invasion is the source of the problem.
Stop the war and things will loosen up. “
Hurley countered, “That’s a noble sentiment, but how exactly do you propose we go about doing that soon enough to matter? It took eight years of trying and we never did pull the Iranians and the Iraqis apart. We don’t have that kind of time here.”
General Hickman snorted.
“The key to this situation is that bastard
Vorster. He’s the one who started this friggin’ Namibian war. Now we’ve gotta find a way to make him call it off.”
“I’d have better luck teaching my cat to tap-dance. ” Hurley replaced his tortoiseshell glasses.
“Hold on, Ed. The general may have something there.
Forrester sat back in his chair, head tilted up slightly toward the low ceiling.
“Vorster’s a stubborn son of a bitch, but he might listen to reason if we can find a way to cut him off at the knees. We know the military’s in good shape, but South Africa can’t go on fighting a foreign war if its civilian economy starts failing apart. “
“You mean South Africa’s whites won’t be so interested in foreign conquests if they start going hungry,” Hurley said.
Forrester hesitated and then nodded.
“Yes, that’s exactly what I mean.
Let’s speed up the process.”
It seemed strange to contemplate accelerating South Africa’s economic collapse in order to stave off a larger, bloodier catastrophe. Something like innoculating people with a weakened version of a deadly virus to protect them from the disease itself.
Forrester turned to the secretary of commerce.
“Hamilton, I’d like your people to prepare an analysis of South Africa’s greatest vulnerabilities.
Where can we really turn up the heat on these people? As a start, we’ll recommend to the President that we freeze South African assets in this country.
“I need something I can show the President within the week. Clear?”
The commerce secretary was obviously more comfortable with fixing an economy than fouling one up, but he nodded and took notes.
Forrester glanced around the crowded, suddenly silent table.
“Ladies and gentlemen, we are no longer talking about simple sanctions. Those are designed to show a government how we feel, or as a mild form of coercion.
What we need is a hook we can sink into Vorster himself.” He bared his teeth.
“And I suspect the best kind of hook would be the threat that his own supporters will vote him out of office because they can’t work and can’t eat.”
He looked across the table at Nicholson.
“Chris, we may need to consider active measures by your people. Use Hamilton’s list as a starting point, but have your Covert Action folks put together their own ideas as well.
Again, we’ll need to see whatever they can put together ASAP.
The CIA director nodded once, his high forehead creased by a worried frown.
Covert operations were notoriously dangerous for any intelligence chief with political ambitions. Disgruntled political opponents and press cynics loved nothing better than to expose them to public scrutiny and congressional ridicule. Nicholson already knew that no covert action would survive the rigid test he planned to apply-risk of failure.
Hurley caught Forrester’s eye.
“I’d suggest additional consultations with some of our allies on these proposals. Especially with the United Kingdom.