It should be remembered that impacted areas remain highly radioactive for a period of time, although considerable radioactive decay will occur within the first 30 days. Fallout, however, continues over an extended period of time. While lethal doses of radiation may not occur, sublethal doses have been common; most of this fallout, sufficient to have caused considerable injury, was material deposited in the troposphere and brought down to earth over a period of weeks, largely by rain.
Some fallout was placed into the stratosphere, where it will continue to fall to earth over a period of years. Radioactive elements such as strontium 90 and carbon 14 have particularly long lives and pose the greatest danger over the long term.
Our projections for long-term radiation effects are perhaps most affected by the fallout of these dangerous elements.
Given the nature of the Soviet attack, the targets, calculated MY yield, and existent and projected fallout, the following somatic and genetic effects can be anticipated in the United States alone over the next 35–40 years:
| Cancer deaths | 3,000,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 2,000,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 3,000,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 1,500,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 4,500,000 |
These same effects, considered for the Northern Hemisphere (concentrated between 30 degrees and 60 degrees North Latitude) for the same time period, are as follows:
| Cancer deaths | 1,500,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 1,400,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 2,000,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 850,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 3,000,000 |
The estimated effects on the Soviet Union as a result of the American attack, over the same time period, are as follows:
| Cancer deaths | 1,500,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 2,500,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 3,600,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 1,750,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 2,000,000 |
These projections, of course, do not include those individuals killed either during the attack or shortly thereafter.
National Security Council
Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects
August 27, 1992
The Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects was asked by the Executive Office on August 1, 1992, to prepare a summary of information available on the physiological and related socio-psychological effects observed to date in victims of the nuclear bombings of 1988, especially on those effects caused by or related to radiation. Further, we were asked to report wherever possible on data for both the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, scientific information is largely unavailable from the Soviet Union. Secondary observations from visiting European teams suggest, however, that long-term trends observed here in the United States are generally comparable to trends believed to exist in the USSR. It is not the intention of this summary report to describe political developments, as more complete studies of the subject are available from other government agencies.
The Committee wishes to stress from the outset that while this report summarizes a considerable body of evidence, based on classic prewar studies as well as on American and British studies undertaken since 1988, only major trends are reported here. Contemporary studies, for example, have been conducted only during the last three years, although some five years have passed since Warday. It must be noted that the full, long-term consequences of massive radiation dosages cannot be known completely at this time; this is particularly true of genetic effects.
As requested, this report will address presently observed trends in physiological/genetic injuries caused by war-related radiation exposure. Where appropriate, however, related socio-psychological effects also will be described. It is important to note that these data describe only survivors of the attack.
1.1 NEOPLASMS
The single most dramatic trend observed to date is in the inordinate number of radiation-induced neoplasms, or cancers, from some 30 percent nationwide before the war to almost 60 percent today. Studies conducted by the National Centers for Disease Control in the Washington , D.C., zone, and by the joint American-British Radiation Effects Teams in the South Texas zone, provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that perhaps as much as 90 percent of the affected populations in both zones suffer to some degree from radiation-induced cancers. Of this population, depending upon radiation dosage (both short and cumulative), more than 60 percent have experienced malignant neoplastic diseases. Skin tumors are perhaps the most common, followed by lung, stomach, breast, and ovary/reproductive organs. The prewar cancer rate for the entire population, excluding cancer of the skin, was perhaps 30 percent; of that population, some 15–18 percent died. Exposure to radiation at the 150–200-rem level, however, effectively doubles the rate of cancer. Studies conducted after Warday suggest that more than half of the population in or near bombed areas suffered rem exposures at the 350–500 level. Aerial surveys of the Texas and New York zones suggest that individuals as far away as 2.5 miles from GZ [Ground Zero] experienced exposure levels of 100–150 rems. Those individuals two miles from GZ probably received exposures in the 500-rem level. Demographic correlates, therefore, suggest that in these two urban zones alone, more than 35 million persons experienced radiation levels sufficient to cause cancer. Correcting for those killed instantly and those who died within the first six months, some 15 million persons have now, or can be expected to have, malignancies.
Related to the dramatic rise in cancer rates is the substantial rise in leukemia, of which granulocytic leukemia is perhaps the most frequently observed. Consequently, there has been a dramatic rise in related blood diseases.
While cancer and leukemia represent the most dramatic radiation-disease trends, it must be remembered that radiation fundamentally attacks the cellular system of the body. This occurs because ionizing radiation creates changes in individual cells. When sufficient changes occur, the individual organ ceases to function properly. Cells of different types, and therefore different organs, have varying levels of radio-sensitivity. Consequently, all of the following organs are susceptible, in descending order of sensitivity:
• lymphoid tissue and bone marrow
• epithelial tissues, such as the ovaries and testes and the skin
• blood vessels
• smooth and striated muscles
• differentiated nerve cells
Nerves in general are the most resistant to radioactivity, although the nerves of embryos and of the adult cerebellum are exceptions and are quite sensitive.