It is estimated that each weapon produced the following radiation calculated in calories per centimeter squared (cal/cm2):
| One-three miles: | Over 1,000 cal/cm2 |
| Three miles: | 900 cal/cm2 |
| Five miles: | 300 cal/cm2 |
| Ten miles: | 66 cal/cm2 |
| Twenty miles: | 14 cal/cm2 |
Thermal radiation at these levels was sufficient to produce first-degree burns on all exposed individuals within 28–30 miles and second-degree burns on exposed individuals within 22–24 miles. It is estimated that as much as 20 percent of the population received thermal burns beyond normal statistical projections due to the number of weapons and their detonation points, which had the effect of broadening the radiation-exposure range.
Limited ground observations by trained personnel have been possible only in some localities. The data, however, confirm the dispersive effects of thermal radiation from three weapons. Numerous incidences of flash burns and “ghost figures” of humans were noted.
7. RADIATION. Initial nuclear radiation was intense and, within a radius of 2 miles, virtually lethal to all life. Almost 100 percent of radiation produced occurred within 15 seconds. The following radiation doses have been calculated for the New York attacks:
| DISTANCE FROM BLAST CENTER | INITIAL RADIATION DOSE |
|---|---|
| Up to 2.4 miles | 100+ rems |
| Up to 2.1 miles | 500+ rems |
| Up to 2.0 miles | 1000+ rems |
It is estimated that the fatality rate at 500 rems is 70 percent; at 1000 rems it is almost universally 100 percent. Generally, the effects of initial radiation upon the individual depend upon his/her proximity to the blast center and degree of physical exposure. In terms of overall protection for individuals not exposed to the blast(s) directly, it can be noted that a minimum of 18 inches of concrete or similar material is necessary in order to reduce 1000 rems of radiation to a tolerable level of 100.
8. PHYSICAL EFFECTS. A thorough physical survey of the New York area has not been possible as of this date. Aerial photographs, however, reveal considerable damage to the Queens–Long Island areas, and severe-to-moderate damage to all adjacent areas. Given the variability of structures and terrain, the following damage table for the New York area has been constructed for each airburst:
| TYPE OF STRUCTURE | DAMAGE LEVEL | DAMAGE RANGE IN MILES FROM BLAST CENTER |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Wood houses and buildings | SEVERE | 12 Miles (average) |
| MODERATE | 14 Miles | |
| 2. Masonry buildings | SEVERE | 8.5 Miles |
| MODERATE | 10 Miles | |
| 3. Multistory wall-bearing buildings | SEVERE | 5.9 Miles |
| MODERATE | 7.3 Miles | |
| 4. Reinforced concrete buildings | SEVERE | 5.7 Miles |
| MODERATE | 7.0 Miles |
Relating this schema to blast pressure (as discussed in Section 5 of this Report), the following table can be generated:
| TYPE OF STRUCTURE | DAMAGE LEVEL | BLAST PRESSURE (PSI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Wooden buildings | SEVERE | 3–4 PSI |
| MODERATE | 2–3 PSI | |
| 2. Masonry buildings | SEVERE | 5–6 PSI |
| MODERATE | 3–4 PSI | |
| 3. Multistory wall-bearing buildings | SEVERE | 8–11 PSI |
| MODERATE | 6–7 PSI | |
| 4. Reinforced concrete buildings | SEVERE | 11–15 PSI |
| MODERATE | 8–10 PSI |
Within these parameters, therefore, total destruction of all structures occurred within 3–4 miles of each blast center; severe damage occurred within 10 miles; moderate damage at 14 miles; and minor damage, such as broken windows, at 20 miles. Groundburst damage was more concentrated.
This effectively places the geographical area bound by Highway 678 to the west and Highway 1,06 to the east as a Dead Zone, with total destruction at the 85–95-percent level. The remainder of Queens and the northern half of Brooklyn are estimated to have experienced severe damage at the 60–70-percent level, as has Long Island to Highway 111. Moderate damage, including downed power lines, broken windows, and roof damage, extends through Manhattan to New Jersey in the west, and to Riverhead and Southampton in the east.
Overall destruction in the above area is estimated to be 85 percent within five miles of Ground Zero; 65 percent within 10 miles; 30 percent within 15 miles; and 10 percent within 20 miles.
9. MORTALITY. Definite counts are as yet impossible to calculate. Preliminary estimates suggest that 2–3 million were killed instantly in the New York attack on 28 October; another 1–2 million died within 48 hours; and perhaps as many as 3–4 million will suffer premature deaths from trauma or radiation-induced diseases within the next 5–10 years. These estimates are based on 1980 census counts and statistical probabilities for radiation illnesses.
10. PROJECTED STUDIES. Further studies of all aspects of the October 1988 Soviet attack are planned as soon as trained personnel are released by the appropriate military and Department of Defense units.
New York, New York
My first glimpse of it shocks me, not because it seems different but because it doesn’t. I remember this skyline. From the back of an army truck bouncing down the Saw Mill River Parkway it gleams as it has always gleamed, tall and imperial and elegant. I can pick out the Empire State Building, the World Trade Center, the slanting roof of the Citicorp Center.
But then I notice an enormous difference. It is in my ability to see details. As it was when we arrived in White Plains yesterday, the air this morning is absolutely clear, more so than I have ever seen it in New York. I can make out the hollows of windows and see long black scars on the Gulf and Western Building. Then I realize that the Empire State Building has no antenna, and that makes me huddle into my jacket.
Jim stands beside me, his feet wide, his hands gripping the rail that runs along the back of the truck cab. He is silent, his careful eyes on the horizon.
We have been processed by the army bureaucracy in White Plains, and now carry mimeographed papers that, among other things, give us the right to be in Manhattan without risking arrest or being “shot on sight.” I look at the kids in the truck with me—eighteen, seventeen, some even younger. They aren’t very fierce, and I believe General Briggs’s claim that nobody has ever actually been executed here. These kids are not soldiers in the prewar sense of the word. They are the uniformed custodians of a great, shattered treasure house.