Israeli sources cite the continuing buildup of Soviet-supplied forces in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon as a matter of concern. In turn, Arab sources point to Israel's prolonged occupation of Jordan as reason for smoldering tensions.
Aside from sporadic incidents in Jordan, the largest military clash during the past year occurred last August. Responding to South Yemen intrusions into their airspace, Saudi F-20s intercepted a PDRY formation and reportedly shot down three fighter-bombers. Border incidents between Yemen and South Yemen have tapered off since then, with no further air combats in the region.
However, reports persist that a number of conferences have been held by Muslim military planners in the past several months. Details are not available, but informed speculation has it that Syria, Libya, Iraq and perhaps Iran are drafting contingencies for military action should negotiations fail to gain a settlement in Jordan. Most neutral observers feel that Tel Aviv would be hard-pressed to meet a combined Arab offensive with Israel's forces thinly spread throughout Jordan.
Diplomatic contacts agree that Saudi Arabia holds the swing vote among Muslim nations. Thus far Riyadh has steered a neutral course but hard-line Arab states have been lobbying the Saudis for a more active role in settling the Jordanian situation.
Thurman Wilson handed Avrim Ran a paper plate containing a hot dog, potato salad, and baked beans. The Secretary of State's elegant Georgetown residence, all brick and ivy, seemed an incongruous setting for an American-style picnic, but Wilson knew how to play to an audience. State's intel on the Israeli U.N. ambassador was quite thorough, and Wilson had noted the genuine grin on Ran's face despite the overcast sky.
Ran had learned to enjoy most aspects of life in America and traveled as widely as his duties in New York permitted. Outdoor barbeques, the Grand Canyon, and even horseback riding all appealed to him. Which was exactly the reason Thurmon Wilson had invited him to this "informal" meeting of their two families. Ran chuckled inwardly. Who but Thurmon Wilson would wear a tie to a picnic? The man was absolutely transparent.
And, the Israeli discovered, his American colleague didn't have much patience today. After exactly thirty minutes of polite conversation Wilson maneuvered Ran into the kitchen, away from their wives and Ran's young children.
"Avrim, I needed this time alone so we can discuss the Middle East situation without interruption. It's going on three years since the occupation of Jordan"-Wilson was careful to phrase the accusation as passively as possible-"and there's no settlement in sight. The president is terribly concerned, and he'd have asked me to talk to Ambassador Palnet, but Shlomo of course is unavailable." Ran nodded, recalling that Tel Aviv's ambassador to the United States remained hospitalized in Israel, recovering from a coronary. "You're the senior Israeli diplomat in this country right now," Wilson continued. "I want to ask you to communicate this administration's deep concern-privately, of course."
Ran blinked in surprise. This was old business to him. "Of course, Thurmon. You may rely on it. But surely you know that little has changed. Our forces remain firmly in control, and the civil unrest has subsided tremendously." He stopped to gather his thoughts. He did not want to promise what he could not deliver. "And our third-party negotiations through U. N. relief agencies and the Saudis seem to be making headway."
"That's just the point," Wilson insisted. "Israel isn't dealing directly with those who matter-the Jordanians. Their government in exile on Crete has been reduced to almost observer status in the back-channel discussions."
Ran made no comment, so Wilson pressed the advantage. "As for the Saudis, I don't think we can rely on their good offices indefinitely. They could get dragged into a war with their neighbors or succumb to internal radicals. Just look at that air combat with the Yemenis a year ago. And it's no secret that Syria and Iraq are planning something-maybe in concert with Iran. Avrim, we know as well as you do about the military buildups on Jordan's borders. This whole issue has helped unite what previously was a pretty fragmented Arab world."
Staring into space through the kitchen window, Avrim Ran thought of what another war would mean to his younger brother David, now leading a squadron of his own. Maybe he'd welcome it.
Ran started out the door to collect his family. "I'll pass along your concerns, immediately. Oh, and Thurmon. "
"Yes?"
"Thanks for the hot dogs."
The air-conditioned conference room was starkly pleasant in contrast to the broiling heat outside. The royal family already had moved to Jidda, the summer capital, but a series of military conferences in Riyadh were necessary.
Tiger Force was slated for the second day, as part of an overall air force briefing. Accelerating events had pressed a carefully drafted contingency plan into effect throughout the Saudi military, and the F-20 squadrons figured prominently. Bennett sat across the polished table from Safad Fatah, noting the immaculate tiled floor and ornate high ceiling with marble columns along the walls. He was still somewhat surprised that he had been invited to attend the full session, but perhaps Fatah had something to do with that. The entire region was gearing up for war, and Bennett thought it unusual that a foreigner would be allowed to attend all the briefings. However, over three years of close affiliation with King Rahman and his ministers had earned him a trusted place.
As General Mustafa Halabi completed his presentation, Bennett looked again at the large-scale map on the wall. Scattered in an arc through northern and eastern Arabia were new airstrips either nearing completion or well under construction. They fit into a plan which Tiger Force IPs had helped formulate months before, and now Bennett would explain the integrated plan in which they were featured.
Bennett was careful to acknowledge the tacit trust inherent in his very presence. He knew it was unusual. "Your Majesty, gentlemen, I consider it a rare honor to attend your conference. The confidence expressed in me, and by extension in all our instructors, is deeply appreciated, and I hope we continue to earn your trust."
Bennett went on. "As most of you know, Tiger Force has reached its status of eight fully operational squadrons. Counting the Saudi pilots turned back into the training program, we could form another F-20 squadron with just a few transfers from remaining F-5E units." The Tiger II had been partially phased out of the Royal Saudi Air Force over the past year, but the little fighter's ease of maintenance endeared itself to the defense hierarchy. With acquisition of F-15s and more recent large purchases of Tornado fighter-bombers from Britain, the Saudis' maintenance situation had increased in difficulty, but F-5 mechanics easily switched to F-20s.
Bennett pulled a standard rescue mirror from his pocket and tilted it back and forth. "Most of you are familiar with these signal mirrors. The light from one of these can be seen for forty miles or more on a sunny day." The mirror had a hole in the reflective paint on the reverse side, allowing the user to align the mirror on the ship or aircraft searching for him. This put the light beam on target. Then, with a simple motion of the hand, the mirror was flashed to attract attention.
"The early warning system we've devised is an adaptation of one that General Chennault used in China during World War II. Clear air and unlimited visibility in the desert will allow us to use mirrors like this as a foolproof communications system. It cannot be jammed or deceived by any electronic means, and if the user is assigned a Morse Code authenticator, the signal cannot be duplicated by an opponent unless he knows that day's signal. Since a full-scale conflict in this region undoubtedly would involve electronic counter-measures by one or both sides, this means of air-raid warning could be crucial."