Nearly all Tiger Force intelligence now went directly to the Heyl Ha 'Avir. But the car-bomb death of two Saudi Air Force majors, their chauffeur, and five civilians was of interest to other intelligence communities. By cross-checking a variety of sources, the story had come together with only a few gaps.
This Bennett was a lucky one, all right, Geller mused. Had the American air attache not been on the street at the same time, Bennett certainly would have died in the car with the others. The natural question was, who and why?
Geller was miffed but not surprised to learn Israel was suspected by the Saudis. Ordnance specialists confirmed the C-4 explosive had been of U.S. manufacture, which to the outside world meant the Israelis could be involved. The section chief knew better and was reminded of the old professional dogma: never assume the obvious without good reason.
"Whom do you suspect?" the director of diplomatic intelligence had asked the colonel that morning.
"Abraham, I'd lay even money it's the Yemenis or the Iranians."
"Explain. "
"The F-20s delivered a one-sided defeat upon the South Yemen Air Force a year ago. We have known, as you are aware, that most of the instructors are Americans. This bombing could shape up as revenge, pure and simple."
The director tugged at his jowls. "Yes, I agree that is possible. But Iran?"
"Things get complicated there. Just a moment." Geller spun his chair, reached for a folder on his desk, and turned back. "We have strong evidence that high-level diplomatic discussions have been going on between most of the Islamic fundamentalist states and many of their more moderate neighbors. The link seems to be this man." Geller pulled a photograph from the folder.
"Ah, my old friend from Damascus!" The senior man's voice almost sounded jovial. "Ali al-Badran." He handed the picture back to Geller.
"Correct. He's probably the most skilled Arab diplomat, certainly the best and most experienced Syrian-"
"And he hates the very thought of Western devils conducting business in Arab countries. It's one of his ideological ties to the old Khomeini regime. That gives him credibility with the new clique in Tehran, which feels it has to pay lip service to the ayatollah's policies. "
Geller tossed a little salute to the older man. "Very good, Abraham. You should consider a career in the intelligence field."
“Maybe I will someday, after I've finished digging up ancient civilizations." Archaeology was their common passion. That and the preservation of Israel. "So you think the Iranians and perhaps Syrians want to kill the head of this separate Saudi air force as a precautionary move?"
Geller shrugged his round shoulders. "It's one possibility. But I'll tell you one thing for sure. I wouldn't want to be in that American's shoes with two types of fanatics after me."
"I understand he's overseeing construction of more advanced airfields in northern Arabia. Is that a threat to us?"
"It could be offensive or defensive, depending upon how the fields are used. It's not for me to interpret, thank God. That's the kind of interpretation which leads to unwarranted assumptions, which leads to unnecessary action, which leads to war." He inhaled deeply. "Let's pray that the politicians don't reach the wrong conclusions. "
His partner concurred solemnly. "Amen to that."
President Walter Arnold settled into his chair for the National Security Council briefing, aware of the officers and civilian aides deferentially waiting behind him. Nearly all had remarked in recent months how his appearance had changed. Three tough years in office had left their mark on the president's face; his tan was long gone, deep lines accented his eyes and mouth, and the trademark silver-gray hair was almost completely white.
The staff and aides took their seats as the chief executive sat down. It was a larger meeting than normal, for the pending crisis in the Middle East had expanded in scope and complexity. Arnold believed in diversity of opinion right up to the point when he made a decision. He had once told his chief of staff, "No historian is going to write about me what they wrote about Kennedy-bad advice from bad advisers. By God, if I make a mistake of the Bay of Pigs magnitude, everyone with me is going to take the heat, too."
As he had for nearly every week in the previous three years and more, Major General George Miller stood before the president to update the global military situation.
"Mr. President, there has been no indication of further overt action on the part of Arab air forces in the past several days. However, there is a high level of diplomatic activity among the Iranians, Syrians, and Iraqis, with lower levels of consultation with other Arab states. This includes meetings of the Syrian ambassador-at-large, Ali al-Badran, with traditional moderates from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Emirates."
Arnold knew this pattern had existed for at least several months, probably much longer. "Okay. What about Egypt and Jordan?"
Miller was ready for that question. ''The Jordanian government continues to exist in exile, if you will, but of course without exercising much influence as to what happens there. We believe that return of Israeli-occupied Jordan to the Jordanians will be a cornerstone of any proposed settlement.
"As for Egypt, there is nothing to suggest the current fundamental regime will change its attitudes anytime soon. Cairo's geopolitical stance is somewhere between Riyadh and Tehran-not as extreme as the Iranians but certainly not as moderate as the Saudis. That was to be expected after the previous government fell."
Miller flipped a page on his chart and pointed to military dispositions. "Mr. President, there has been movement of Egyptian antiaircraft units into Sinai." The pointer tapped out positions beyond the Suez Canal. "Intelligence photos show that they are remaining stationary at present, and in fact are part of a planned combined arms exercise. But their location could be ominous. These are relatively new units of considerable versatility. Each tracked vehicle contains a twenty-five-millimeter gun and two each short-and medium-range SAMs. They are deployed in battalion strength, and they can keep up with the fastest battle tanks."
"Is that mechanical fact significant?"
"Yes, sir. At least it could be. You see, if motorized infantry with tanks were to suddenly drive eastward across Sinai, they would have to take their anti-air forces with them. By prepositioning such units, they gain a time saving."
"Why couldn't the Israelis knock out these units? That would prevent the tanks and infantry from advancing, wouldn't it?"
"Mr. President, these SAMs have terminal guidance which could be passive-acting upon heat or even noise of the target. They would not be easily defeated. You'll recall the serious losses the Israelis had from Egyptian SAMs in '73."
Arnold did not know the figures, and in fact did not care. But he did know that dozens of Israeli aircraft had been destroyed or seriously damaged by the belt of surface-to-air missiles during the Yom Kippur War. Only extensive U. S. electronics gear and replacement aircraft and parts had kept the Israelis flying in sufficient numbers. Arnold did not intend to oversee another situation in which American aid to Israel incurred economic retaliation from the oil producers.
"All right," Arnold said. "We have definite diplomatic activity among the Arabs, apparently for the purpose of establishing unity among the Muslim states. And we have possible military activity aimed at Israel from Egypt. What about other military cooperation?"