"Mr. President, I'm afraid I don't have anything to cheer you up," Wilson replied. "I didn't phone just to issue a status report. I wanted to tell you of new evidence we've developed through neutral sources in Damascus."
Arnold was visibly upset. He did not need more bad news.
"Who's neutral in that country anymore?"
"Well, this comes via the French Embassy. And we're checking with the Swiss in Tehran. But it appears the Muslim states are finally getting it all together. You recall the Syrian ambassador at large who's been conducting his own shuttle diplomacy over the past year or so? Well, he seems to be producing results. Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya, plus Egypt to a lesser extent, are presenting a united diplomatic front. We don't know about the Saudis yet-they're trying to stay on the fence. But evidently the others are issuing an ultimatum sometime this month. The Israelis withdraw from Jordan and cede the West Bank as a Palestinian homeland, or else."
Walter Arnold's reply was simply, "Or else… "
"Or else a full-scale war. And this time the Arabs have enough muscle and unity to make it stick. There have already been joint military planning conferences and joint exercises, you know. At least three high-level meetings have been held in Syria and one or more in Iran."
"Judas Priest."
The Secretary of State inhaled deeply. "And that's not all, Mr. President. They mean to play hardball. If we or any other Western power provide arms or other material support to Israel in the event of hostilities, there'll be an immediate oil embargo."
"You're certain of this information?"
"As sure as we can be right now. All we have to do is wait until the announcement in a week or so."
Arnold was ready to grasp at any straw. "But Thurmon, what about our U. N. initiative and the Saudi contacts with the hard-liners? At one time it looked like something might be worked out."
Wilson's gaze dropped to the floor. Then, raising his eyes to the president, he said, "I don't think those meetings were ever held in good faith. Based on available evidence, they were a smokescreen to keep us off balance. Like Japan in '41."
Arnold sat back in his chair, his eyes closed. Why would any sane human want this job? he wondered. He looked at Wilson. "Well, at least an embargo wouldn't hurt us as much as it did in '73. We've enough stocks to last quite a while. But, Christ! Within two months of election!"
The diplomat punched his left palm with his right fist. "I seriously doubt the timing is coincidental, sir." He leaned forward, emphasizing his next point. "Undoubtedly the Israelis already have this information. We can talk to their ambassador again, but I know damn well what he'll say. Tel Aviv calls the shots, and the present government is in no mood to negotiate. It'll be even less inclined to accede to Arab demands that Israel withdraw from Jordan and the West Bank."
The president glumly settled his chin in his hands. "Thurmon, what do you think would be the result if we supported Israel in another war?"
"Aside from the economic and political problems it would pose, there's also the terrorist threat. We don't know for certain, but presumably that's something the Iranians and their friends have discussed. They'd love to blackmail us into doing nothing. It'd be awfully hard to take that kind of political heat in this country."
"We should discuss this with Ben Wake and Defense," Arnold said in a flat voice.
Wilson nodded agreement. "Yes, of course. But nothing's really changed, you know. The Joint Chiefs are unanimous in their view that direct combat in support of Israel would not guarantee success, and undoubtedly would bring severe repercussions, as I just noted. Plus there's the domestic consideration. More American lives lost in the Middle East to no direct gain by the U.S." Wilson shrugged. "Imagine how that'll play on Main Street."
"So you think the best policy is hands off? Don't support Israel?"
For the first time in the meeting, Wilson smiled. ''That's where an old lawyer can do some good, Mr. President. I recommend that we adopt a neutral stance, offering to continue mediating the situation. It keeps our contacts open to the Arabs and the Israelis, and to their supporters over here."
"All right, I'll buy that. But if it still comes to war, then what?"
"Frankly, Mr. President, I'm in agreement with Ben and the JCS on this one. I don't think our support or intervention would significantly change things. It would only get a lot of young Americans killed in a conflict that many people would regard as not in our national interest." He let the point sink in, sensing he had scored with a sensitive topic. Then he added, "Which reminds me. I have a report that yesterday the Saudi Air Force was engaged in a skirmish near the Jordanian border with some Israeli aircraft. This followed air battles the day before between the Israelis and some Syrians and Iraqis. "
"Yes, I remember," said the president.
"It's not confirmed, sir, but apparently American and British pilots were involved. They're part of this Tiger Force the Saudis set up a few years ago."
Arnold's jaw grew slack. "You mean Americans might actually be in combat with Israelis? How is that possible?"
"It's possible, sir, because we bent over backward to keep our presence and influence in Arabia after the British grabbed that huge defense contract. I've checked the law on this point, and there's room for argument both ways. But so far the U. S. advisers in this organization have not broken any laws."
Obviously, we can't let them continue there."
Wilson raised a cautionary hand. "I'm not so sure. The Saudis regard these people very highly and want them to stay. If we insist on pulling them out, there's no guarantee they'll come. They might simply turn professional mercenaries and all we'd accomplish is alienating the Saudis. Right now, I think we need credibility in Riyadh a lot more than we need to rein in a few cowboys."
President Walter Arnold let out a long sigh. "Okay. Keep me informed. "
"Well, there it is," said Chaim Geller. He plopped the two-page document down on the desk of his air force liaison officer at the intelligence complex overlooking the city. ''There's no doubt that at least one American pilot was involved in the combat with our F-15s? These radio transcripts prove it, I suppose."
Major Eli Ashkiron of the Heyl Ha'Avir scanned the printout.
"We didn't expect to get a complete voice intercept, Colonel. The F-20s are using minimum radio transmissions, and only in the heat of battle. But what this paper doesn't show is the individual's accent. He is definitely American, not British. Our linguists say he probably comes from the western United States."
Chaim Geller filed away that very useful bit of information for future reference. As if knowing his place of birth will help us win an air battle, the section chief thought. "I take it that all the transmissions that were monitored were in English?"
The major said, "Yes, including the Saudis'. That only reinforces our suspicion that the foreign instructors are still flying with this… Tiger Force." The officer, though a professional, had difficulty keeping the spite out of his voice. "Colonel, will our diplomatic people make a protest over this? I cannot imagine we would let American and British citizens actually fight for the Arabs without raising the matter in Washington and London."
"I don't know, Eli. That's up to the politicians."