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As he drove through the city, Steven was struck by how quiet it was. It was just after seven in the evening but it felt more like three in the morning. It was unusually dark. Many neon signs had been switched off because the premises they advertised were closed until further notice or FOR THE DURATION OF THE EMERGENCY, as the signs outside said. Pubs remained open at the licensee’s discretion, as did off-licences, the authorities having decided that closing them would be tantamount to prohibition, a measure not noted for its success in the past. Buses still ran, but on a reduced service schedule, and the night service had been abandoned altogether.

On his way to Spicer’s house, Steven came across three ambulances, blue lights flashing as they ferried patients across town, but there was no call for their sirens in the light traffic. Their silence added to the air of surrealism. Thinking about their destination made Steven wonder if Caroline would be working at St Jude’s this evening. He resolved to drive down there after he had spoken to Matilda Spicer.

He was shocked at her appearance when she opened the door. She was no longer the confident political wife with the ready smile and charm to spare. He had been wrong to categorise her as a traditional, stoic Tory wife, for in her place stood a pale, haggard figure with a haunted look that suggested she hadn’t slept properly for some time.

‘You!’ she exclaimed when she saw Steven. ‘Just what the hell do you want?’

‘I’m sorry. I hate to trouble you, but I need some more information about your husband, Mrs Spicer,’ said Steven.

‘Then why are you asking me?’ she snapped. ‘What the hell do I know about him? I seem to be the last person on earth to know what he gets up to.’

‘I’m sorry. I know this can’t be easy for you.’

‘Easy for me!’ she repeated. ‘Can you even begin to imagine what all this is doing to my daughter and me? We’ve lost everything, absolutely everything. You appear on the scene and, abracadabra, our life disappears in a puff of smoke. I don’t have a husband; Zoe no longer has a father; the charities I worked for don’t want to know me; even the au pair has been taken away by the agency — apparently we’re no longer a suitable placement for her.’

‘I’m sorry,’ repeated Steven. ‘I assumed that friends and family would rally round at a time like this.’

‘Oh, they are,’ sneered Matilda. ‘They’re rallying round him. Victor’s father more or less suggested that the whole thing was my fault. If I’d been a better wife, his precious son wouldn’t have needed to look elsewhere — that’s more or less how he put it.’

‘Like father like son,’ said Steven with distaste.

‘Well, what did you want to ask me?’

‘I need to know if your husband underwent surgery in the last year or so,’ said Steven.

‘Yes, he did,’ replied Matilda, making an obvious effort to pull herself together. ‘He had a heart operation last February.’

‘Successful?’

‘Unfortunately, yes.’

‘Can I ask where the surgery was carried out?’

‘He had it done in London.’

‘Privately?’

Matilda named a well-known private hospital. ‘We have insurance,’ she added.

‘Of course,’ said Steven.

‘Now, if there’s nothing else, I really must be getting on… I have to prepare for Christmas,’ she said with a look that challenged Steven to imagine what her Christmas was going to be like, and implied that it was all his fault.

Steven thanked her politely for her help and wished her well, although it sounded hollow in the circumstances. Matilda, who had shown no interest in why he had asked his questions, gave a half-smile tinged with sadness and regret and closed the door.

Steven heard the strains of ‘Claire de lune’ begin haltingly on the piano as he walked back to the car. He glanced back at the house and, through the branches of the half-decorated Christmas tree in the window, saw Zoe Spicer sitting on the edge of the piano stool, concentrating on her music while her mother, standing behind her, looked on.

The scene made him reflect on just how suddenly disaster could strike. Matilda Spicer must have seen herself as comfortable, confident and secure. She might even have imagined herself as a government minister’s wife in some future administration. Then suddenly, as she had said, abracadabra! None of it was there any more. The ball bounces, the cookie crumbles, shit happens and you’re left with… zilch.

Three wildcards and three heart operations was the thought uppermost in Steven’s mind as he drove back to his hotel. The coincidence had just got bigger, but on the downside it still seemed irrelevant when it came to understanding how these people got the virus. The fact that they had all undergone surgery — and successful surgery at that — was the only thing they had in common. As for the surgery itself, it had been carried out in different hospitals and in different parts of the country by different surgeons at different times. Taken at face value, this might suggest that people who had undergone surgery were more susceptible to infection, but that didn’t help at all in establishing where the infection had come from. There had to be another linking factor.

As soon as he got back, Steven requested that the kitchen put together a variation on a picnic hamper which would supply dinner for two people, complete with a couple of bottles of decent wine. If Caroline didn’t feel like going out to dinner — and it was odds on that she wouldn’t after yet another ten-hour shift at St Jude’s — dinner would come to her. He arranged to pick it up from the desk when he left just after ten, but in the meantime he went upstairs to see if any more information had come in from Sci-Med.

The first message contained the lab report on Victor Spicer’s blood sample. It had contained a high level of antibodies to the new filovirus, indicating that he had recently been infected with the strain. Steven let out a grunt of satisfaction: it was good to see loose ends tied up, and now there was no doubt that Spicer had been the cause of the Manchester outbreak.

More information about Humphrey Barclay’s medical condition had come. He had suffered from rheumatic fever as a child and this had resulted in a weak pulmonary heart valve in later years. His condition had worsened over the last two years, leading to the need for surgery, which had taken place in March this year. The operation was successful and, until he contracted the filovirus, Barclay had enjoyed better health than he had done for many years.

‘Just like Sister Mary Xavier,’ murmured Steven. ‘You have successful heart surgery, you feel like a new person, and suddenly you’re dead.’ Matilda Spicer had not been specific about the type of surgery Victor had undergone, and Steven didn’t feel like contacting her again in the circumstances. He did remember, however, the name of the hospital, so he asked Sci-Med to make contact and request details.

He was getting ready to leave for St Jude’s when medical details on Frank McDougal came through. Steven scanned the screen with a frisson of anticipation and found what he was looking for. McDougal, too, had suffered from a heart problem. He had been diagnosed in December 1999 as suffering from age-associated degeneration of the aortic heart valve. Surgery had been performed to correct the fault in April this year and had been successful, so much so that McDougal had taken up hill-walking and had already bagged fourteen Munros (Scottish mountains over three thousand feet) during the summer.

‘Jesus wept,’ muttered Steven. He didn’t pretend to understand what was going on, but the elation at making a connection between the wildcards was more than welcome and long overdue. Four wildcards, four heart problems, four operations, this was too much of a coincidence to be one at all.