However, for substantially less money, an important expedition that is preparatory for each of these manned ventures could be mustered-an expedition to an Earth-crossing carbonaceous asteroid. The asteroids occur mostly between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. A small fraction of them have trajectories that carry them across Earth’s orbit and occasionally within a few million miles of the Earth. Many asteroids are mainly carbonaceous-with large quantities of organic materials and chemically bound water. The organic matter is thought to have condensed in the very earliest stages of the formation of the solar system from interstellar gas and dust, some 4.6 billion years ago, and their study and comparison with cometary samples would be of extraordinary scientific interest. I do not think that materials from a carbonaceous asteroid are likely to be criticized in the same way that the Apollo returned lunar samples were-as being “only” rocks. Moreover, a manned landing on such an object would be an excellent preparation for the eventual exploitation of resources in space. And finally, landing on such an object would be fun: because the gravity field is so low, it would be possible for an astronaut to do a standing high jump of about ten kilometers. These Earth-crossing objects, which are being discovered at a rapidly increasing pace, are called-by a name selected long before manned spaceflight-the Apollo objects. They may or may not be the dead husks of comets. But whatever their origin, they are of great interest. Some of them are the easiest objects in space for humans to get to, using only the Shuttle technology, which will be available in another few years.
THE SORTS of missions I have outlined are well within our technological capability and require a NASA budget not much larger than the present one. They combine scientific and public interest, which very often share coincident objectives. Were such a program carried out, we would have made a preliminary reconnaissance of all the planets and most of the moons from Mercury to Uranus, made a representative sampling of asteroids and comets, and discovered the boundaries and contents of our local swimming hole in space. As the finding of rings around Uranus reminds us, major and unexpected discoveries are waiting for us. Such a program would also have made the first halting steps in the utilization of the solar system by our species, tapping the resources on other worlds, arranging for human habitation in space, and ultimately reworking or terraforming the environments of other planets so that human beings can live there with minimal inconvenience. Human beings will have become a multi-planet species.
The transitional character of these few decades is evident. Unless we destroy ourselves, it is clear that humanity will never again be restricted to a single world. Indeed, the ultimate existence of cities in space and the presence of human colonies on other worlds will make it far more difficult for the human species to self-destruct. It is clear that we have entered, almost without noticing it, a golden age of planetary exploration. As in many comparable cases in human history, the opening of horizons through exploration is accompanied by an opening of artistic and cultural horizons. I do not imagine that many people in the fifteenth century ever wondered if they were living in the Italian Renaissance. But the hopefulness, the exhilaration, the opening of new ways of thought, the technological developments, the goods from abroad, and the deprovincialization of that age were then apparent to thoughtful men and women. We have the ability and the means and-I very much hope-the will for a comparable endeavor today. For the first time in human history, it is within the power of this generation to extend the human presence to the other worlds of the solar system-with awe for their wonders, and a thirst for what they have to teach us.
PART IV. THE FUTURE
CHAPTER 17
“Will you walk a little faster?” said a whiting to
a snail,
“There’s a porpoise close behind us,
and he’s treading on my tail.”
LEWIS CARROLL,
Alice in Wonderland
FOR MUCH OF human history we could travel only as fast as our legs would take us-for any sustained journey, only a few miles an hour. Great journeys were undertaken, but very slowly. For example, 20,000 or 30,000 years ago, human beings crossed the Bering Strait and for the first time entered the Americas, gradually working their way down to the southernmost tip of South America, in Tierra del Fuego, where Charles Darwin encountered them on the memorable voyage of H.M.S. Beagle. A concerted and single-minded effort of a dedicated band to walk from the straits between Asia and Alaska to Tierra del Fuego might have succeeded in a matter of years; in fact, it probably took thousands of years for diffusion of the human population to carry it so far south.
The original motivation for traveling fast must have been, as the whiting’s plaint reminds us, to escape from enemies and predators, or else to seek enemies and prey. A few thousand years ago a remarkable discovery was made: the horse can be domesticated and ridden. The idea is a very peculiar one, the horse not having been evolved for humans to ride. If looked at objectively, it is only a little less silly than, say, an octopus riding a grouper. But it worked and-especially after the invention of the wheel and the chariot-horseback or horse-drawn vehicles represented for millennia the most advanced transportation technology available to the human species. One can travel as much as 10 or perhaps even 20 miles an hour with horse technology.
We have emerged from horse technology only very recently-as, for example, our use of the term “horsepower” to rate automobile engines clearly shows. An engine rated at 375 horsepower has very roughly the pulling capacity of 375 horses. A team of 375 horses would make a very interesting sight. Arrayed in ranks of five horses each, the team would extend for about two-tenths of a mile in length and would be astonishingly unwieldy. On many roads the front rank of horse would be out of sight of the driver. And, of course, 375 horses do not travel 375 times as fast as one horse. Even with enormous teams of horses the speed of transportation was only ten or so times faster than when we could depend upon only our legs.
Thus the changes of the last century in transportation technology are striking. We humans have relied on legs for millions of years; horses for thousands; the internal-combustion engine for less than a hundred; and rockets for transportation for a few decades. But these products of human inventive genius have enabled us to travel on the land and on the surface of the waters a hundred times faster than we can walk, in the air a thousand times faster, and in space more than ten thousand times faster.
It used to be that the speed of communication was the same as the speed of transportation. There were a few fast communication methods earlier in our history-for example, signal flags or smoke signals or even one or two attempts at arrays of signal towers with mirrors employed to reflect sunlight or moonlight from one to another. News of the recapture of the Fortress of Györ by Hungarian commandos from the Turks was apparently conveyed to the Hapsburg Emperor Rudolf II through such a device: the “moonbeam telegraph,” invented by the English astrologer John Dee, which apparently consisted of ten relay stations placed at intervals of forty kilometers between Györ and Prague. But with only a few exceptions, these methods proved impractical, and communications proceeded no faster than a man or a horse. This is no longer true. Communication by telephone and radio is now at the velocity of light-186,000 miles per second, or about two-thirds of a billion miles per hour. This is not simply the latest advance: it is the last advance. So far as we know, from Einstein’s Special Theory of Relativity, the universe is constructed in such a way (at least around here) that no material object and no information can be transmitted faster than the velocity of light. This is not an engineering barrier like the so-called sound barrier, but a fundamental cosmic speed limit built deeply into the fabric of nature. Still, two-thirds of a billion miles per hour is fast enough for most practical purposes.