Fanning the Flames of Revolution
As retailers like Barnes & Noble and Apple entered the e-reader market, they created increased competition for Amazon. But more importantly, and more positively for Amazon, their success signaled that the ebook market was evolving from mere innovation to full-blown revolution.
And because the ebook revolution is largely technical, the best measure by which to view it is the theory of the diffusion of innovation.
Everett Rogers wrote a book called The Diffusion of Innovations, in which he describes the five phases that an innovation goes through as it makes its way through a population. These phases can be used to understand the way consumers approach any new innovation, such as cars or cell phones or computers. Each phase is represented by a group of adopters in the society.
Statistically speaking, the first 2.5 percent of the population to adopt a new technology are called innovators. The next 13.5 percent are early adopters, and the next 34 percent are the early majority. If you add up these three groups of people, you get 50 percent, half the population. The remaining two groups are the late majority, which represents the next 34 percent and, finally, the laggards, with the final 16 percent.
The labels for these five phases in the diffusion of innovation speak for themselves. But to roughly sum it up, the younger and wealthier you are, the more you tend to find yourself on the side of the innovators. The more risk-averse and traditional you are, the more you find yourself with the laggards. Your social status and education level often follow the same progression.
These factors correlate time and time again with every invention that’s been studied using the theory of diffusion of innovation. In fact, innovators and early adopters are no longer the only ones who speak about the diffusion of innovation. The theory has become part of the arsenal of tools used by marketers and product managers when they dream up new business ideas or gadgets. Whether you, as a consumer, are aware of this is unimportant to the people who make and market products, because the theory of diffusion of innovation is as real to them as the law of diminishing returns and the 80/20 principle.
Here are a few examples of how the diffusion of innovation works. It took eighty-three years from the time refrigerators were first available in the United States for them to be available to more than half the households, which finally happened in 1940. Flush toilets were invented later than refrigerators, but they took only forty-three years before they reached everyone in the early majority. That accelerating trend has continued with more recent innovations. Home electricity took only twenty-two years before it reached half of all U.S. households. It took nineteen years for radio, fifteen years for TV, and only ten years for the World Wide Web.
As we move further into the future, the diffusion of innovation happens faster. You don’t have to take my word for this; any study of the diffusion of innovation shows the same progression of this acceleration of culture throughout history. Perhaps this acceleration is caused by the explosion in innovations than can be reassembled to make still more new innovations. The acceleration can be bewildering if you’re unable to keep pace with it. To this day, my grandmother still refuses to use email, and whenever she has anything important to send, she uses a fax.
When are ebooks likely to reach the early majority? Taking a conservative approach and assuming that will take ten years (the same amount of time it took for the internet to reach the early majority), that puts us squarely in 2016, ten years after Sony launched its first e-reader in the United States. I personally think it’ll happen faster, because I’m not conservative, and I see the acceleration of adoption rates across innovations. But even if the conservative estimate is right, half the people who read will have an e-reader of some sort by 2016—and possibly a year or so earlier.
By the early majority phase, you’re at the sweet spot in the rate of adoption, when the most consistent growth is happening from year to year. My numbers tell me that’s where we are now—with the population of readers in the United States, at least. A 2012 report by Simba Information indicates that 24.5 percent of U.S. adults consider themselves ebook readers, and a 2012 Pew Internet study suggests that 33 percent of people in the United States own an e-reader or a tablet. The phase of the most rapid growth is happening now as reader revolutionaries are taking to the streets and subways with their e-readers. As trendsetters and early adopters, they’re being seen, and their ebook reading habits are being copied by others. Ebook-only content is helping the diffusion, as well. The ebook revolution is a bloodless revolution that spans all the acres of the imagination, across all of time and space to everywhere your imagination takes you while you read.
Now, no one ever wrote a paean to flush toilets or refrigerators. No one rang a bell in 1950 during the heyday of the television, and no fireworks went off in 2001 when half the population found themselves on the internet. As far as I know, no one’s ever written a paean to a cell phone or even an ode to the humble wheel. But the invention of ebooks is different. It’s in a rarefied class almost all by itself, because it involves everything aspiring about the human spirit.
The ebook revolution is ultimately about ideas, and in a very real way, we are our ideas. They’re the music that flows through our veins, the jolts of electricity that keep one day from blurring into the next. The revolution in reading has a tangible and noticeable effect on us as a population. The Simba Information report also suggests that a title originally only available as an ebook, Fifty Shades of Grey, may have been partially responsible for a 7 percent year-over-year shift in ebook reading in the U.S. population.
Modern revolutions are more like microrevolutions. Modern political revolutions follow the same trend toward increased speed as innovations. The revolutions are instigated and completed faster than political revolutions of yore. This is related to the fact that we’re online with one another all the time. We’re a connected civilization, and this connection is accelerated more by ebooks than by flush toilets or refrigerators. We’re revolutionaries with one another because we’re linked by ideas, by currents that ripple through our civilization in the books we write and read.
And it’s not just that we have more access to books now or that they’re available almost anywhere within sixty seconds. The ebook revolution also means that we can take what we’ve read, and the ideas that have been sparked, and then communicate them at lightning speed to people all over the world—whether through annotations on the ebook or highlights others can see or social network postings on Facebook or Twitter where we can share an interesting passage from an ebook and our comments about it. Wherever we are and whenever we want, we can talk to others around the globe about a book, as if the world is our reading club and the author our best friend.
When I said earlier that the Kindle was one of the two best inventions of the twenty-first century, I meant the concept of the Kindle, the concept of a portable e-reader and all the ebooks that can be read on it. I think that other devices since the original Kindle have vastly improved its basic features and added new ones. But they are all rooted in the Kindle. In terms of reading, the iPad owes as much to the Kindle as a smartphone owes to the humble rotary phone.
Like the basic Kindle, current eInk e-readers still have a ways to go as actual gadgets. They may never truly compete with multifunction devices like the iPad or Google’s Nexus tablets or even the Kindle Fire released by Amazon. But what we have now is directionally indicative of a future that all book lovers should want to live in, the future of on-demand reading, of having any and every book that’s ever been published available to us no matter where we are.