Ross Huntington shared the general’s pessimistic view. Outraged by the French-funded oil embargo and the attack on North Star, Poland and the Czech and Slovak republics had broken all diplomatic ties with the European Confederation. And with France stonewalling demands for a full investigation, Britain and Norway had recalled their ambassadors from Paris for “consultation.” Public pressure in the United State was building for similar moves. What had begun as a political and economic crisis was rapidly taking on a military aspect as well. He clenched his left fist repeatedly, hoping it would ease the pressure in his chest.
Galloway clicked through several images in rapid succession, using a hand-held controller to circle the parts of each image he considered particularly important. Some of the photos he highlighted showed jet aircraft parked out in the open near hardened shelters. Others featured row after row of tanks and other armored vehicles lined up in cleared fields near small villages and larger towns. “As these satellite photos show, EurCon is in the process of moving substantial air and ground forces to new bases in eastern Germany. Significantly, they aren’t making any real effort to hide this redeployment.”
“Could they?” The President sat forward in his chair.
Galloway nodded vigorously. “Yes, sir. My EurCon counterparts know the orbital data for every recon satellite we have. If they wanted to, they could be moving this hardware around when we’re blind — and concealing it under camouflage netting or in shelters when we’re not. We’d still pick up signs of movement, but not anywhere near this fast or this easily.”
“So this is primarily a political maneuver to step up the pressure on the Poles and Czechs — and not a preliminary move toward deliberate military action?”
“Exactly, Mr. President.” The chairman of the Joint Chiefs keyed the monitor off and raised the room lights to full brightness. “But our allies can’t take that chance, so they’re being forced to respond in kind.
“Although they’re still worried about Russia, the Poles are more worried about EurCon. So far they’ve deployed four of their nine active-duty divisions along the German frontier, with another two close behind in reserve. And when I talked to General Staron, their Defense Minister, this morning, he informed me that his President is considering reactivating one of their reserve divisions. The Czechs and Slovaks are taking similar steps.”
Huntington felt the band around his chest tighten even more. This was very bad news. Calling reservists from their civilian jobs back to the colors was always a costly proposition. The fact that the three Eastern European countries were even considering it in a time of great economic hardship indicated just how concerned they were.
Galloway shook his head somberly. “With tens of thousands of troops on full alert and aircraft flying combat air patrols in close proximity to each other, the place is just one hell of an accident waiting to happen.”
“Swell.” The President swiveled his chair toward Harris Thurman. “Any recent diplomatic developments I should know about?”
“No, sir.” The Secretary of State sounded apologetic. “Nobody’s budged so much as an inch.”
“All right, people. I need your input. What exactly are my options here?” The President tapped the table with his pen. “General? John? Any ideas on your end of things?”
The Secretary of Defense looked thoughtful. “The Joint Chiefs and I believe we should boost our military aid to Poland and the others even further, Mr. President. By drawing down some of our reserve forces equipment we could — ”
“Send more tanks?” Thurman looked aghast. “General Galloway is right. The whole region is an armed camp now. How can shipping in more weapons possibly help?”
Lucier kept his attention locked on the President. “Weapons by themselves don’t provoke wars. Perceptions and intentions are far more important.”
Huntington nodded to himself. The short, bookish Secretary of Defense was right there. Too many arms control pundits focused only on the hardware side of the equation. By their bizarre set of rules, both Adolf Hitler’s massive program to rearm for conquest and the belated Allied efforts to thwart the Nazi dictator would have been judged equally destabilizing.
“EurCon evidently views the Poles and the rest as militarily weak, and thus susceptible to military pressure. In turn, they know that much of their equipment is outdated. To make up for that, they’ve had to bring their armed forces to higher and higher states of alert. When you’re outgunned and outnumbered, you must make sure every available tank, plane, and soldier is ready for battle.”
Lucier looked over his thick, horn-rimmed glasses at the Secretary of State. “Perceived weakness is exacerbating this crisis, Harris. Not strength. So we can accomplish two very important aims by increasing our military aid now. First, we put EurCon’s leaders on notice that we’re calling their bluff. And second, we’ll build Polish and Czech confidence. The more certain they are that they can withstand a sudden EurCon attack, the more likely they are to pull their forces back from the border and ratchet down their alert state.”
In the momentary silence that followed, the President sat frowning, evidently still somewhat unsure of which course to follow. He scanned the assembled group. “If I okay this extra military aid, what’s the likely EurCon reaction?”
“Paris and Berlin will be furious.” Thurman sounded unhappy. “They regard all of Eastern Europe as their own backyard, so they’re bound to regard further arms shipments as a deliberate provocation.”
The President nodded slowly, still frowning. “But how far will they go, Harris?” He glanced around the table. “Take the worst case. Would EurCon risk a military confrontation over this issue?”
“Unlikely, sir.” Galloway shook his head. “They’re trying to intimidate the Poles and the rest — not start an open war with us.”
“EurCon won’t roll over, though,” Huntington warned. “The French and Germans want Poland and the others inside their orbit too badly to give up so easily. We can expect heated protests.” He paused. “Probably coupled with additional covert attacks against us or against our allies.”
The President and the rest of the NSC nodded. Though they didn’t have enough proof to go public with their suspicions, everybody in the room knew EurCon agents were responsible for the destruction of the LNG tanker and for the murder of an American intelligence officer. Nobody would be particularly surprised by more EurCon sabotage attempts. He looked down the table at the head of the CIA. “What about it, Walt? Can your antiterrorism people handle the threat?”
“Yes, Mr. President,” Quinn said confidently. “I know there’s no such thing as a leakproof defense, but now that we know what we’re up against, we’ve got a much better chance to thwart any covert operations aimed our way.”
Galloway backed Quinn up. “Besides the warships we send as escorts, we can put special teams from Delta Force and SEAL Team Six on every freighter and tanker going into the Baltic.” The general’s eyes flashed fire. “And with those guys in place, I’ll guarantee any son-of-a-bitch who tries to plant another limpet mine a short ride to hell.”
Huntington watched his old friend sit silently, weighing his options. Putting more U.S.-flagged ships, citizens, and soldiers at risk wasn’t an appealing prospect, but the alternatives — accidental war as border tensions rose, or Franco-German control over the whole European continent — seemed far worse.
The President straightened up. “All right, we’ll send the equipment, and back it up if need be.” He glanced around the table. “Any other objections or comments?”