"it was on a routine training mission from Japan to Eielson Air Force Base in Fairbanks," Curtis said, "when it diverted to investigate some strange signals somewhere between the submarine base at Petropavlovsk and a large research complex north on the peninsula called Kavaznya."
The President nodded. "Any survivors?"
"None so far," Curtis asked. "Search teams from Japan are just arriving on the scene. Soviet searchers have been out there, but they haven't found anything."
The President nodded. "How many "Ten men, two women."
"Damn. "The President pressed his fingers of his right hand to his temple and gently began to massage it. "What the hell happened?Why were they over there?"
"A routine radar mapping sortie-a spy mission," Mitchell the CIA director, chimed in. "They fly off the coast, trying to get the Russians to bring a threat radar up against them. They plot out the radar's location, identify it, see what it does."
"How close to the coast were they?" the President asked.
Curtis hesitated. "How close?" the President asked again.
"Its closest approach was about thirty-five miles," Curtis replied.
"When we lost contact with the plane, they were about ninety miles from the coast.
"Well, dammit," the President said, "I'd be upset if a Russian spy plane was thirty miles from Washington. "The President turned to Brent, the Secretary of State, who anticipated the President's next question.
"Technically, Mr. President, they stayed in international airspace as long as they did not overfly Soviet territory," Brent asked. "However, the Soviets guard their ADIZ-the air defense identification zone-quite zealously. The ADIZ extends one hundred and twenty miles from shore."
"How did they shoot them down?" the President asked.
Again, Curtis hesitated. "General?"
"We… we're not sure, Mr. President," Curtis replied.
The President looked at the oak-paneled walls around him as if they had begun closing in on him. "Sir, at this time we can't even confirm that the Russians did in fact down the plane."
"You're not sure "There was no way we could be sure what happened."
"Goddamnit, General," the President asked. "We've lost twelve men and women and an unarmed spy plane and you can't tell me what happened?"
"We don't have all the data in yet, sir.
"But you are accusing the Soviets of shooting down that plane?"
Marshall Brent asked. "Without evidence?"
"It had to be the Soviets," Curtis shot back. "There was no way" Well, what have you got, General?" the President asked impatiently, pouring himself and Brent more coffee. "From the beginning. And it better be good."
Curtis cleared his throat and began: "Sir, the RC-135 concentrated its patrol on a large research area north of Petropavlovsk-"
"We've received intelligence about secret weapons research activities there," Mitchell interjected. "They've built up defenses there, too.
They have an airfield and fixed surface-to-air missile batteries almost as large as at the sub pens at Petropavlovsk. But all we're certain of is a huge nuclear power plant at the facility."
"That may not be all," Curtis asked. "We received data from the RC-135 about several new long-range early-warning and surveillance radars in the area, including one of tremendous power.it was powerful enough to disrupt the data coming from the RC-135 in all bands."
"They were jamming us?" jamming," Curtis asked. "Interference. They blotted "Not out a wide frequency spectrum with that one radar."
"So what is it out there?" the President asked everyone in the room.
"Are you saying it's a new antiaircraft site? A jammer? What?"
"We have reason to believe, sir," Curtis replied, "that the Soviets have been conducting research into high-energy antisatellite and antiballistic missile lasers at Kavaznya. That radar has enough power and enough capability to find and track objects in Earth orbit. Sir, we believe they may have a laser defense system in operation there.
The President's jaw lowered. He looked quickly at Mitchell and Brent.
"Jesus, Curtis," Mitchell said, giving the General an exasperated look.
"Pure speculation. You don't have enough information to-" "Do you know what they do have out there, Mitchell?"
Curtis asked.
"Of course," the CIA chief asked. "A huge reactor, a large airfield, increased air defense sites-but not some pie-in-thesky laser defense system. We suspect they have a myriad of weapon experiments being conducted out there-nuclear warhead production, nerve gas, maybe some particle-beam and laser experiments dealing with future antisatellite and ABM devices. But an operational system'?Impossible."
"That radar is immensely powerful," Curtis asked. "They could easily have constructed a radar with far less power to guide missiles to an atmospheric target. This one can track targets, we estimate, as far as our highest orbiting satellite-as far as thirty thousand miles." "Suspect. Possibly. Estimate. "The President glanced at his watch again. "Is that it?Nothing more definite?"
"We know it is a giant research facility," Curtis said, trying to regain his lost credibility. "They have the energy source and a tracking and targeting capability. They've also spent enough money on that complex to achieve spectacular results-" "We also know," Mitchell interrupted, "that despite the massive amount of money the Soviets have spent on research, they are still at least twenty years from developing a laser sophisticated enough to deploy a credible laser-based ABM system."
"How far are we?" Brent asked, his curiosity piqued.
"At least ten years for a laser system," Curtis asked. "Turn of the century at most. But we have a working antisatellite system now-the two F-15 antisatellite groups operational at Andrews and Tacoma. Plus we have the Ice Fortress polar missile defense space station project. We can put it up next year on the Shuttle if we want to. We can upgrade it to a rail-gun or kinetic energy ASAT system by-"
"We cancelled Ice Fortress, didn't we?" the President asked absently as he sipped his coffee. He turned to Brent. "We cancelled it, right?"
"Absolutely, sir," Brent said. He turned to Curtis. "I hope the fact has merely slipped your mind, General, that launching Ice Fortress would be a flagrant violation of the first ratified arms agreement we've had with the Soviets in over twenty years.
"Ice Fortress isn't at issue here," Curtis asked. "The point is: we can't simply double the estimate of our own technology and apply it to the Soviets. This 'just because we don't have it the Russians can't have it' is nonsense. The Russians play by a whole different set of rules than we do. They don't answer to Congress, the press, the public, or the world. They don't cancel projects, close plants, lay off workers, or worry about a budget. If they want a laser defense system now, they build one. If they need more money, they buy twenty percent less meat and thirty percent less toilet paper and to hell with public opinion.
"C'mon, General," Mitchell said, "I'm on your side, but our information just doesn't support your theories. The technology involved in creating a laser-based antisatellite system that can hit even a geostationary satellite is tremendous. It is almost mind-boggling to apply that same technique to shooting down warheads a little bigger than a yard in length. The degree of accuracy required is enormous."
"And just because we can't do it," Curtis said, "the Russians certainly can't, eh, Mitch?"
"All right, all right," the President asked. "Let's stop trying to win debating points. "He ran a hand through his sweaty brown hair and tried hard to think. "All I see is two of our country's leading experts arguing and contradicting one another. You say that complex could house a Soviet antisatellite or anti-I.C.B.M laser, but then you say they don't have the technology to deploy such a system. Excuse my impertinence, gentlemen, but it sounds like paranoia to me."