The mode of transmission was critical. A pouched dispatch would not have been read “until it got to the desk officer or some of the guys up the line,” Durbrow pointed out. But a telegram—the longest ever sent in the State Department’s long history—was sure to attract attention. Moreover, “we were wondering why George didn’t send us something. Everybody was waiting for it. They’d say: ‘Gee, has anything come in?’ ‘No, it hasn’t come in yet.’ So by the time it got there it was something.” And “it was such a beautiful job to begin with.” The department, Kennan was relieved to learn, had not been at all disturbed by his “reckless use” of its telegraphic channel. Kennan’s number 511, Matthews cabled him on the twenty-fifth, was “magnificent. I cannot overestimate its importance to those of us here struggling with the problem. Heartiest congratulations and best wishes.” Two days later Byrnes himself added that he had read 511 “with the greatest interest. It is a splendid analysis.”46
Now back in Washington, Harriman found the telegram “fairly long, and a little bit slow reading in spots.” But it did contain what Kennan “hadn’t been allowed to say before.” Harriman shared it with Secretary of the Navy Forrestal, who had long been looking for an analysis of this kind. Forrestal, in turn, had the telegram reproduced and circulated all over Washington, including to Truman himself. As Kennan recalled:
Six months earlier this message would probably have been received in the Department of State with raised eyebrows and lips pursed in disapproval. Six months later, it would probably have sounded redundant, a sort of preaching to the convinced. This was true despite the fact that the realities which it described were ones that had existed, substantially unchanged, for about a decade, and would continue to exist for more than a half-decade longer.
It all showed, Kennan concluded, that the real world was less important than the government’s “subjective state of readiness… to recognize this or that feature of it.” Harriman did not find this surprising. “That was one of the things,” he later recalled, “that I couldn’t get George to understand—that our timing had to be right.” It was “why I didn’t want a lot of [his] stuff to go in, because I knew it would have gone in the files and died. But this was just the critical time. It hit Washington at just the right moment. It was very fortunate.”47
VI.
Like Stalin’s speech, Kennan’s “long telegram” reiterated much that he had said at other times and in other ways. But by breaking the rules once again—this time the State Department’s restrictions on the length of telegrams—he got the attention of his superiors, just as he had twice during the war by going to Roosevelt himself. “I apologize in advance for this burdening of telegraphic channel,” he had written at the beginning of 511, dropping an occasional article in at least a gesture toward communications economy, “but questions involved are of such urgent importance, particularly in view of recent events, that our answers to them, if they deserve attention at all, seem to me to deserve it all at once.”
There were from the Soviet perspective, he explained, two antagonistic “centers of world significance,” one socialist, the other capitalist, with the latter beset by insoluble conflicts. The greatest of these divided the United States from Great Britain, and it would in time lead to war. This might take the form of an Anglo-American clash, but it could also involve an attack on the Soviet Union by “smart capitalists” seeking to ward off their own war by fabricating a common foe. If that happened, the U.S.S.R. would prevail, but only at great cost: hence the importance of building its strength while seeking simultaneously to deepen and exploit conflicts among capitalists, even to the point if necessary of promoting “revolutionary upheavals” among them.
That position did not, Kennan emphasized, reflect the views of the Russian people, who were for the most part friendly to the outside world, eager to experience it, and hopeful now “to live in peace and enjoy fruits of their own labor.” Nor did it make sense: capitalists had not always fought one another; capitalism was not now in crisis; the idea that capitalists would provoke a war with the Soviet Union was the “sheerest nonsense.” Soviet leaders, however, respected neither public sentiment nor logic. Instead, history and ideology shaped their actions in a particularly insidious way.
The history was that of Russian rulers, whose authority had always been “archaic in form, fragile and artificial in its psychological foundation, unable to stand comparison or contact with political systems of western countries.” The ideology was Marxism, made “truculent and intolerant” by Lenin, which provided the Stalinists with the perfect justification
for their instinctive fear of outside world, for the dictatorship without which they did not know how to rule, for cruelties they did not dare not to inflict…. Today they cannot dispense with it. It is fig leaf of their moral and intellectual respectability. Without it they would stand before history, at best, as only the last of that long succession of cruel and wasteful Russian rulers who have relentlessly forced country on to ever new heights of military power in order to guarantee external security of their internally weak regimes.
Uneasy Russian nationalism, a centuries-old movement that had always blurred distinctions between defensive and offensive actions, was now operating under the cover of international Marxism, “with its honeyed promises to a desperate and war torn outside world.”
This dual character caused the Soviet regime to function on two levels: a visible one consisting of its official actions, and an invisible one for which it disclaimed responsibility. Both were coordinated in “purpose, timing and effect.” On the visible plane, the U.S.S.R. would observe diplomatic formalities and participate in international organizations to the extent that those facilitated its interests. On the invisible plane, it would make full use of communist parties throughout the world, as well as such other groups as it could penetrate and control, to undermine the influence of the major Western powers. This would involve efforts to “disrupt national self confidence, to hamstring measures of national defense, to increase social and industrial unrest, to stimulate all forms of disunity.”
The problem, therefore, was a daunting one: “We have here a political force committed fanatically to the belief that with US there can be no permanent modus vivendi, that it is desirable and necessary that the internal harmony of our society be disrupted, our traditional way of life be destroyed, the international authority of our state be broken, if Soviet power is to be secure.” Controlling great resources and a great nation, it could draw upon “an elaborate and far flung apparatus of amazing flexibility and versatility, managed by people whose experience and skill in underground methods are presumably without parallel in history.” Nor was its leadership subject to reason: “The vast fund of objective fact about human society is not, as with us, the measure against which outlook is constantly being tested and re-formed, but a grab bag from which individual items are selected arbitrarily and tenaciously to bolster an outlook already preconceived.”
Coping with this adversary was “undoubtedly greatest task our diplomacy has ever faced and probably greatest it will ever have to face.” It would require “the same thoroughness and care as solution of major strategic problem in war, and if necessary, with no smaller outlay in planning effort.” But it was within the power of the United States to solve it, and it could be done peacefully. The Soviet Union, unlike Hitler’s Germany, had no fixed timetable, was not inclined to take unnecessary risks, and would, when resisted, retreat. It was still much weaker than the West. It had no orderly mechanisms for replacing its leaders. It had swallowed territories that had severely weakened its tsarist predecessor. Its ruling party dominated but did not inspire the Soviet people. Its propaganda was negative and destructive: it should be “easy to combat it by any intelligent and constructive program.” For these reasons, “I think we may approach calmly and with good heart problem of how to deal with Russia.”