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The policies of the khan Tokhtamysh (1376–95) differed from those of his predecessors. Hereditary ruler of the White Horde, its pastures located in western Siberia and extending to the lower reaches of the Syr Darya, Tokhtamysh was able to enlarge his power base by uniting its resources with those of the Golden Horde, of which he eventually made himself master. He thus introduced fresh “steppe power” into the Golden Horde at a time when it was no longer the force it had once been (in 1380 the Muscovites had inflicted a crushing, if temporary, defeat on the horde at Kulikovo Pole). Furthermore, instead of seeking the assistance of petty eastern European princes, Tokhtamysh hitched his wagon to the rising star of Timur, with whose support he reasserted Mongol supremacy in Russia.

After Tokhtamysh’s death the Golden Horde survived under the aegis of an able usurper, Edigü, but after Edigü’s death in 1419 a process of disintegration set in. The core territories of the former Golden Horde, centred on the Volga-Don steppes, became known as the “Great Horde,” while outlying regions seceded to form independent khanates based on Kazan and Astrakhan on the Volga, Crimea, western Siberia, and the Nogay steppe east of the lower Volga. All eventually fell victim to dynastic feuds, internecine rivalry, and Muscovite expansionism. Thus, in the case of the Kazan khanate, its founder Ulugh Muḥammad (c. 1437–45) bequeathed the throne to his able son Maḥmud (or Maḥmutek), who reigned with conspicuous success between 1445 and 1462. Maḥmud’s brothers, however, fled for sanctuary to Vasily II of Moscow, who set up a puppet khanate for one of them (Kasim) at Gorodets-on-the-Oka (thereafter renamed Kasimov). The khanate of Kasimov was to be a thorn in Kazan’s flesh until the latter’s extinction in 1552. Kasimov itself survived as a political fiction until about 1681, by which time the last khans had abandoned Islam for Christianity.

In 1502 the Great Horde was extinguished and its lands annexed by the khan of Crimea, Mengli Girai, who had already placed himself under Ottoman suzerainty in 1475. Kazan fell to the troops of Ivan IV the Terrible of Moscow in 1552, and Astrakhan was annexed two years later. The khanate of Sibir (western Siberia), after a stubborn resistance, submitted to Boris Godunov, the regent for Ivan’s son Fyodor I (1584–98). Only the khanate of Crimea was left, separated from Muscovy by the still-unconquered Ukrainian steppe and enjoying some protection because of its status as an Ottoman vassal. It survived for two more centuries, until Catherine the Great’s conquest in 1783. Its capital, Bakhchisaray, long a centre of Tatar culture, was to take on a new life in the late 19th century as the home of the Tatar national revival associated with the name of Ismail Bey Gasprinski. Timur

While the Golden Horde was beginning to enter its long decline in the late 14th century, the demise of Chagataid rule in the area between the Amu Darya and Syr Darya was taking place as a result of the rise of Timur. Under Timur’s leadership the Turko-Mongol tribes located in the basins of the two rivers were first united. With the assistance of these tribes he expanded into the neighbouring regions of Khorāsān, Sīstān, Khwārezm, and Mughulistān before embarking upon extensive campaigning in what are now Iran and Iraq, eastern Turkey, and the Caucasus region. In addition, he launched two successful attacks on his erstwhile protégé, Tokhtamysh, ruler of the Golden Horde. In 1398–99 Timur invaded northern India and sacked Delhi, and between 1399 and 1402 he turned westward again to harry the Egyptian Mamlūks in Syria and the Ottoman sultan Bayezid I, whom he captured in battle near Ankara. At the time of his death at Otrar on the Syr Darya in 1405, Timur was leading his forces on an invasion of China.

Timur never assumed openly the full attributes of sovereignty, contenting himself with the title of emir while upholding the fictional authority of a series of puppet khans of the line of Chagatai, to whom he claimed kinship by marriage; in consequence he styled himself güregen, meaning “son-in-law” (i.e., of the Chagataid khan). He seems to have lacked the innate administrative capacity or the foresight of Genghis Khan, and after Timur’s death his conquests were disputed among his numerous progeny. In the ensuing struggles his fourth son, Shāh Rukh (1407–47), emerged victorious. He abandoned his father’s capital of Samarkand for Herāt in Khorāsān (now in western Afghanistan), where he ruled in great splendour, leaving his son, Ulūgh Beg, as his deputy in the former capital. Ulūgh Beg’s rule in Samarkand between 1409 and 1447 probably brought a considerable measure of tranquility to the long-troubled region. An enthusiastic astronomer and the builder of a celebrated observatory, Ulūgh Beg ensured that during his lifetime Samarkand would be a major centre of scientific learning, especially in astronomy and mathematics. He was killed on the orders of his son, ʿAbd al-Laṭīf, in 1449.

Throughout the second half of the 15th century, the western part of Central Asia was divided into a number of rival principalities ruled by descendants of Timur, among which Bukhara and Samarkand were the most important. The courts of these rulers witnessed an extraordinary cultural florescence in literature, the arts, and architecture, with Chagatai Turkish, a dialect derived partly from Khakani, the language spoken at the Karakhanid court (and a precursor of modern Uzbek), emerging as a flexible vehicle for sophisticated literary expression. These Timurid epigones, however, were locked in unceasing rivalry with each other and were unable to combine against intruders from beyond their frontiers. By the close of the century, therefore, all the Timurid possessions in Central Asia had passed into the hands of the Uzbeks. The Uzbeks

The early history of the Uzbek people (whose rulers were descendants of a younger brother of Batu, khan of the Golden Horde) is wrapped in obscurity, but by the mid-15th century they had migrated from their original homeland, east of the Ural Mountains, southeast toward the lower Syr Darya, whence, under their leader, Abūʾl-Khayr Khan, they began to threaten the Timurids across the river. However, before Abūʾl-Khayr could undertake a full-scale invasion, he was killed in battle in 1468 by two rebellious kinsmen who, refusing to recognize his assertion of paramountcy, had defected, together with their tribal followers, and placed themselves under the nominal suzerainty of the Chagataid khan of Mughulistān. Their descendants were to become the Kazakh hordes of later centuries.

With the death of Abūʾl-Khayr, the fortunes of the Uzbeks temporarily declined, only to be revived under the leadership of his grandson, Muḥammad Shaybānī, who by 1500 had made himself master of Samarkand as well as of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins and was advancing into Khorāsān (Herāt fell to him in 1507) when he was defeated and killed in 1510 by Shah Ismāʿil Ṣafavi. He had, however, changed the course of Central Asian history. By the time of his death, all the lands between the Syr Darya and Amu Darya were in Uzbek hands, and so they were to remain. Throughout the 16th century, Muḥammad Shaybānī’s kinsmen ruled over a powerful and aggressive khanate from Bukhara. They continued Muḥammad Shaybānī’s feud with the Iranian Ṣafavids, articulated along Shīʿite-versus-Sunni lines, and with the Mughal dynasty in India, whose founder, the Timurid Babur, had been driven out of Central Asia by Shaybānī. In contrast, friendly, if sporadic, ties with the Ottomans were maintained by way of the Volga-Don steppes. Unlike the Ottomans, Ṣafavids, and Mughals, however, the Uzbeks had only limited access to firearms, which placed them at a considerable disadvantage with their rivals.