The first team was soon joined by another, this time more confident of their material. Gradually the room started to fill up with a diverse collection of uniforms, all busily taking their places and finalising their presentations.
After fifty-nine minutes the room was almost full, and as the minute hand hit the hour the last group rushed in, apologising for being late.
‘OK, let’s start,’ called Myles. ‘Who wants to go first?’
A naval lieutenant stood up, holding a large sheet of paper on which his group had scribbled out their thoughts. Myles thanked him for volunteering and invited him to the front.
Slightly awkward, the lieutenant held up the paper and tried to explain what it meant. ‘We looked at how the US could be attacked. Our nation’s key vulnerabilities.’ The navy guy pointed to a long list on the paper:
Internet attack… Dirty bomb… Terrorist attack on the transport system…
The audience nodded — they were familiar with the list. The register of US critical vulnerabilities was published every year.
‘Then we went through it and worked out which risks we shared with ancient Rome,’ explained the lieutenant.
The speaker uncapped a red marker. Then he struck through the first item on the list, and the second, and the third. The audience watched as most of the list was crossed off. ‘So that left these issues for us to focus on.’
Everybody peered at the things which remained. Just three points. The speaker used a blue marker to underline them.
Biological/Viral attack/Plague
Chemical attack/poisoning
Economic attack
Then the lieutenant explained each one. ‘For biological, we thought Juma might try to spread diseases which resist antibiotics.’ He scribbled “antibiotic resistance” next to “Biological/Viral attack/Plague”.
Next the lieutenant reminded the audience that Colonel Gaddafi recently manufactured weapons of mass destruction — mainly mustard gas. Whether or not the stocks had been destroyed, there were still technicians in the region with dangerous skills. He wrote “gas” next to the second item on the list.
Finally, the lieutenant wrote “oil” next to “Economic Attack”, as he explained that Juma might engineer a price spike. ‘Our economy is still vulnerable to oil shocks. Maybe the US relies on imported oil as the Romans depended on imported food…’
The lieutenant indicated that was as far as his team’s thinking had progressed. Myles thanked him and the naval officer returned to his seat.
The next presentation was from a woman in regulation army camouflage. She came to the front with a co-presenter who held up a flip chart. ‘OK, so in our group we looked at this problem historically,’ she began. ‘What destroyed the great Roman Empire?’
‘Good,’ said Myles. ‘If you know the answer to that I’m sure there are a lot of people who’ll be impressed.’
The woman smiled, acknowledging Myles’ point, then continued. ‘We reckon the Roman Empire was knocked down by three things. First, lead poisoning — the aristocracy used the metal in sauces for their food. But these condiments literally drove them mad because lead is toxic, and causes changes in the brain. Roman leaders made some terrible decisions. So Juma might try a similar mass poisoning strategy of some sort, perhaps targeting America’s decision-makers.’
There was a murmur of respect around the room. ‘Second, fertility levels dropped in ancient Rome just as they are dropping now in the West. Sperm counts in Europe and America are now less than half of what they were forty years ago — we wondered whether the attack might already be happening.’
The audience could tell the woman felt slightly embarrassed talking about the reduction in male fertility. But they respected her point.
‘The final issue,’ concluded the woman. ‘Economic collapse. Rome’s currency lost its value. Our dollar is vulnerable in the same way. If the dollar ceases to be the international reserve currency, then our economy will suffer big time.’
Myles thanked the woman as she returned to her seat.
The next speaker was more confident, but also seemed less thoughtful than the other two. ‘In our team, we used a classical military approach. We started with Centre of Gravity analysis,’ he declared.
Myles had often told his students about Centre of Gravity theory: the centre of gravity was the single thing which, if destroyed, would neutralise an enemy’s capacity to fight. It was a sensible concept — an idea developed by Clausewitz, the great military theorist on whom Myles was Oxford University’s leading expert. The trouble with Centre of Gravity analysis was that it invited military minds to think of physical things — buildings, people or communication networks. Often, the real Centre of Gravity of an enemy was much harder to pin down — a belief or an attitude which Western forces couldn’t reach.
‘OK, so we looked at their Centre of Gravity, and we reckon it’s their leaders: Juma and Placidia. So we recommend targeting them.’
Myles checked he had understood correctly. ‘You mean taking them out?
‘That’s right, sir. Yes.’
Myles cast around the room for a reaction. It was mixed. Most of the audience accepted that targeted assassination was more complicated than it sometimes appeared. There had to be good intelligence on where the leaders would be, an assessment of collateral damage, a consideration of the wider consequences…
There were also moral issues, and Myles knew men in uniform often relied on euphemisms: using a word like ‘targeting’ when really they meant kill. He turned to Richard Roosevelt. ‘Dick — would you be happy with assassination?’
The Senator’s son slowly shook his head. He carefully framed his words in his mind before he replied. ‘I’m with the sentiment,’ he explained. ‘But killing these suckers won’t solve our problems. Juma’s already set his plans rolling, and those plans will keep on rolling even if he’s dead.’
The enthusiastic speaker understood: killing Juma and Placidia was not enough. ‘OK,’ continued the presenter, ‘so then we did Centre of Gravity analysis for the US. We reckon our Centre of Gravity is our social cohesion — in other words, how we stand together as a nation…’
Myles was impressed: the military planner had defined a Centre of Gravity for the US which wasn’t a physical object. Centre of Gravity analysis might actually be of some use after all.
‘And if social cohesion is our Centre of Gravity,’ continued the man, ‘then it can be attacked in three ways: by getting religious groups in America to attack each other, which happened in Ancient Rome. By making people distrust their rulers and leaders, which also happened in Ancient Rome. And by removing people’s confidence in their currency, which happened in Ancient Rome, too.’
The speaker turned to Myles, asking permission to continue. Myles used his eyes to indicate the officer should talk on — this was useful. ‘So, it’s hard to see how Juma can do anything on the first two — religion in the US and distrust of rulers and leaders. Which means we reckon he’ll go for the currency. And there’s a high-level summit about the international currency system, nine days away. It’s the obvious target, because the meeting is in Rome.’
The room spontaneously applauded: the argument was persuasive. Juma must be heading for Rome.
Richard Roosevelt stood up to thank the speaker with a warm handshake, then interjected. ‘Thanks for that,’ he said. ‘As most of you know, as well as being the son of someone famous, I’m CEO of Roosevelt Guardians. What some of you may not know is that my private security firm is actually responsible for the conference. I don’t know whether to thank you for the warning or blame you for making my job more difficult.’