"The problem, though, is that our perspective isn't the important one at the moment. The important one is the one from Old Chicago, and it's likely to occur to someone back on Old Earth that Admiral Crandall's demise was arranged by some nefarious Manty."
"But . . . why?" the prime minister asked almost plaintively.
"Why, in order to make sure O'Cleary wrote the official dispatch, Mr. Prime Minister! Obviously, she's either turned her coat in return for some bribe on our part, or else we delicately informed her that the same thing that happened to Crandall could happen to her if her report didn't say what we wanted it to say. The fact that despite all the damage the Buckley took, Crandall was the only fatality on her flag bridge would be suspicious enough for some people, even without the possible irregularities of her 'self-inflicted wound' or the mysterious lack of witnesses."
"Wonderful."
Elizabeth reached up and lifted Ariel down into her lap. She sat stroking the 'cat for several seconds, then drew a deep breath.
"All right. We're basically spinning our wheels. That's not a criticism, either—only a reflection of how little chance we have of guessing how the Solly bureaucracy's going to spin this for its own internal consumption, much less the media. But I do have one other question I'd like all of you bright people to consider with me."
"Yes, Your Majesty?" Grantville asked just the least bit warily when she paused.
"I think we're all in agreement that, preposterous as it seems, the real prime mover in all of this has been Manpower and/or Mesa." The queen shook her head, as if even now she couldn't quite believe what her own voice was saying. "I know we don't have any direct evidence linking Crandall to what happened at New Tuscany, or, for that matter, proving Byng knew he was working for Manpower. We do know Manpower was behind Monica, and this Anisimovna's involvement at New Tuscany, as well, clearly demonstrates they were pulling the strings, whether he realized it or not. And the official Mesan version of what happened at Green Pines pretty clearly indicates that the system government itself is carrying water for Manpower where we're concerned.
"My point is that it seems to me we'd be just as guilty of filtering out 'inconvenient evidence' as we're accusing the Sollies of being if we didn't face the fact that all of our threat analyses have fallen seriously short of the mark where Manpower and Mesa are concerned. So, given that we have so much evidence of Manpower's involvement in both Monica and New Tuscany, do we go directly after Mesa?"
"As in taking direct military action against the system, Your Majesty?" Caparelli sounded like a man who wanted to be positive he was interpreting her correctly.
"That's one possibility," Elizabeth said grimly. "Frankly, it has a certain definite appeal, too. If Eighth Fleet can take out the Haven System's defenses and infrastructure, a couple of battle squadrons ought to be more than enough to do the same job on Mesa. But I was also thinking about making the point to the Sollies and demanding that they investigate the extent to which Manpower's been manipulating their military forces."
"From a purely military perspective, taking out Mesa wouldn't be that difficult, assuming they don't have a surprise for us even more fundamental than our surprises for the Sollies, Your Majesty," Caparelli said. "Of course, getting there could be a bit difficult, not to mention time-consuming. And if we took action unilaterally, I'd say there'd have to be at least a pretty fair chance some of Mesa's proxies in the League would point to it as yet another example of mindless Manticoran military aggression—this time directed at a star system well inside the Shell, even if it isn't formally a member of the League."
"I wouldn't have any fundamental objections to carrying out the strike, Tom," White Haven said thoughtfully. "Not if we have the situation with Haven under control, at least. Frankly, I don't see where it could make our relations with the League any worse, at any rate!"
"I think I'm inclined to be a little more cautious about that, Your Majesty," Langtry said. "I'm not going to shed any tears for anything we do to those Manpower bastards, and I could see a lot of pluses to pointedly suggesting to others who might wish the Star Empire ill that every action produces a reaction . At the same time, the propaganda version of Green Pines is still playing to the hilt with the mainstream Solly newsies. Except for O'Hanrahan and a couple of other muck rakers, no one seems to be choking on Mesa's version, and Abruzzi's working it for all he's worth over at Education and Information. If we act precipitously against Mesa, the people buying into that version are going to see it as an escalation of our 'earlier attacks' on the system and, probably, an effort to shut them up before they turn up something still more damaging about what 'really happened' at Green Pines."
"So are you suggesting that their cock-and-bull story should paralyze us militarily?" White Haven asked, a bit more caustically than he usually spoke to his old friend, and Langtry frowned.
"No, Ham, I'm not," the foreign secretary said. "But I am suggesting that Mesa isn't going anywhere. There's time to get around to dealing with Manpower—and Mesa—later, if we decide to, and I'd prefer not to complicate things with the League any more than we have to at this point."
"But our hitting Mesa might actually give the League an out, Tony," Elizabeth countered. He looked a question at her, and she shrugged. "If we were willing to commit to active military operations against Mesa, it would be pretty convincing evidence we really think they're responsible for what's been going on in Talbott. It's possible even Sollies would recognize the opportunity to back away from a direct confrontation with us at least long enough to find out whether or not our suspicions were justified."
"Possible, Your Majesty," Langtry conceded. "Frankly, though, I think 'likely' would be another matter entirely. Especially not with that damned Green Pines story clouding the issue. At least some of the talking heads are going to argue that backing the Ballroom in Green Pines is an example of our already conducting active operations against Manpower in what we hoped would be an untraceable fashion. Under that interpretation, open military action would only be more of the same. And since we've resorted to backing terrorist attacks, we're tarred with the same brush, aren't we? I mean, isn't there a moral equivalence between Anisimovna's blowing up the New Tuscan space station and our nuking a city full of civilians? Where to we get off trying to claim some sort of moral superiority over out enemies in that case?"
"Let's not reject the notion out of hand, Tony," Grantville said, then chuckled harshly at Langtry's evident surprise.
"I know I'm the one who's been most nervous about expanding our current unpleasantness with Haven into an even broader conflict," the prime minister continued. "But I think the Queen may have a point here, and it's not as if we have to make up our minds about it this afternoon. We've provided the Sollies—and their newsies, for that matter—with all our evidence about Manpower's involvement in both Monica and New Tuscany. If we go ahead and send them the tac data from Spindle as Hamish is suggesting—and which I think is a very good idea, by the way—we can also remind them about our belief that Manpower's at the bottom of what's been going on in Talbott.
"I don't imagine even Kolokoltsov and the others are going to decide overnight to formally declare war. First, because I have to thank it's at least possible simple disbelief and shock over what happened to Crandall is going to make even Sollies hesitate at least briefly while they try to find out what really happened. And, second, because even if that doesn't happen, getting a formal war declaration out of the Assembly's going to be the next best thing to impossible, Green Pines or not, given how their constitution's written. So even if they decide to throw the League Navy at us anyway, it's going to be a de facto state of war, not a de jure one. Which means that if we continue to insist Manpower's really to blame, and if we act consistently with that belief the road, they'll still be able to pull in their horns if and when they finally figure out—or decide to admit, at any rate—that we've been right about Manpower all along and that they've been had over Green Pines. In fact, if they get chewed up even remotely thie badly in a couple of more battles, they may find themselves looking desperately for some sort of 'statesmanlike' way to climb out of the hole they've dug for themselves. And much as what I'd really like to do is start shoveling dirt in on top of them, the smart thing to do would be to reach down and give them a boost when they start trying to climb. If they start trying to climb.