At present, biofuel accounts for around 1.5% of total worldwide vehicle fuel consumption. In the foreseeable future, it cannot replace natural oil as a raw material for producing fuel. In its report World Energy Outlook 2006, the International Energy Agency emphasized that, even if a full-scale active policy were pursued with very significant investments, biofuel’s share could not possibly grow to more than 8–12% by 2030.
Incidentally, in the words of Abdalla Salem el-Badri, secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the all-out passion for biofuel could make it harder for cartel members to keep oil production at the former level. OPEC members think that it could seriously reduce investments in oil production, and consequently lead to a new spiral of increases in fuel prices.
Another point of discussion in the Russian and foreign press is what place Russia will occupy in the process of developing alternative sources of energy, since—as is the case with oil and natural gas—it has the lion’s share of world reserves of alternative energy potential. And although Russia has large reserves of raw hydrocarbons, it also needs diversified energy sources, including the use of renewable energy resources. Several experts have estimated that Russia’s potential reserves of alternative energy sources are around 5.1 billion TCE per year, which is five times the country’s consumption of all conventional energy resources. However, the economic potential for their use is negligible so far. The Russian government understands this problem, and soon plans to adopt a federal targeted program to develop renewable energy sources in Russia.
Looking back at history, on October 8, 1975, at a scientific session commemorating the 250th anniversary of the USSR Academy of Sciences, the eminent scientist Academician Pëtr Kapitsa (1894–1984), Nobel laureate in physics, gave a conceptual talk about the future of alternative energy. Proceeding from basic principles of physics, he made logical assessments of wind power, geothermal power, wave power, and hydropower, and proved that using existing technical and technological approaches, all these sources would be unable to provide any serious competition to fossil fuel in the last quarter of the 20th century.
On the whole, it can be firmly stated that the Russian academician’s prediction is still valid today. Despite the efforts of the world community to increase the share of alternative forms of energy consumed, conventional energy sources will continue to dominate in the near future. According to estimates given in presentations by leading specialists at the International Alternative Energy Forum held in mid-February 2009 in Verona, Italy, fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, and coal—will continue to account for at least 80% of global energy consumption through 2030. And here the leading world experts were unanimous in their opinions: it will only be possible to speak seriously about developing alternative energy after the costs of producing alternative energy become equal to the corresponding costs associated with conventional sources—that is, no earlier than by the middle of this century.
Conclusion
The period comprising the second half of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century was a very complex and extremely contradictory one in Russia’s history. Russia’s successful development as an industrial power was interrupted by World War I, two revolutions, and a Civil War, followed by a period of socialist experimentation. These unique historical events substantially changed the face of the country at a dear price: millions of human lives. The Soviet Union remained a powerful industrial and military power for several decades, and the oil industry has played an extremely important role over its entire history. The close of the 20th century saw the end of the ideological confrontation of the Cold War period, the breakup of the USSR, and its replacement by independent states; these events radically altered the whole world order. Starting in the early 1990s, Russia entered a complex period of economic, social, and political transformation and reorganization of its global and regional strategies.
In late June 2009, the International Energy Conference was held in Vienna; it was organized by the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the government of Austria, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and the Global Forum on Sustainable Energy. Forum participants thoroughly examined the world’s energy security problems, the use of existing energy resources, and their impact on the social and economic development of the world’s countries. Many speakers emphasized that one of the most important problems of our civilization is ensuring global energy security, i.e., seeking effective ways to create a sustainable and uninterrupted supply of fuel and energy resources to all the world’s countries, and to do so at prices acceptable to both consumers and producers of these resources, with minimal damage to the environment, based on a systemic approach and the joint efforts of the world community. And this is the most important key to sustainable economic and social development and political stability, the one that ultimately determines the necessary conditions of humanity’s life-support system. In the current situation, responsibility for global energy stability is no longer borne only by governments, but also by leading transnational energy companies. They are the ones who can and must become the backbone of further progressive development of the global economy and observance of the principle of sustainable development in the entire world.
At the same time, certain presentations at the Vienna energy forum set this author’s teeth on edge with their ritual phrases about how “energy pressure” from Russia is supposedly growing and how certain “aggressive” actions of Russian companies in Europe must be curbed. Meanwhile, any sensible person today can clearly see that Russia has been a reliable supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe for many decades.
The market economy and democracy are developing in the Russian Federation and will continue to develop—not at all because reformist theoreticians and proponents of the struggle for “virtual” human rights insist on it, but because it is necessary for and beneficial to Russians themselves. Today, Russia is fully capable of influencing the rest of the world with the potential of its ideas, its positive example, moral leadership, objective information, and many other factors. With each passing day, Russia’s role and importance in the world will only grow with the new challenges posed by the contradictory and complex processes of globalization, social and natural disasters, unresolved territorial and ethnic religious disputes, the growth of radicalism in the world, and the threats of international terrorism.
Today, each of us has the right to be proud of the history of the Russian oil industry, which is the story of many generations of Russian oil workers—courageous and purposeful people, passionate about their beloved business, who have made an enormous contribution to creating the country’s fuel base and strengthening Russia’s industrial potential. And now, effective development of the Russian oil and gas industry, the introduction of advanced technology, and the professionalism and experience of industry workers will do much to determine the dynamic, balanced growth of Russia’s economy and the increased quality and level of international cooperation in ensuring global energy security.