Ten minutes later, the Politburo voted. Sergetov and his eight fellow candidate members were mere spectators. The vote was eleven to two for war. The process had begun.
DATE-TIME 02/03 17: 15 COPY 01 OF 01 OF SOVIET-REPORT
BC-Soviet Report, Bjt, 2310-FL-
TASS Confirms Oil Field Fire-FL-
EDS: Moved in advance for SATURDAY PMs-FL-
BY: Patrick Flynn-FC-
AP Moscow Correspondent
MOSCOW (AP)-It was confirmed today by TASS, the Soviet news agency, that "a serious f ire" had taken place in the western Siberian region of the Soviet Union.
A back-page article in Pravda, the official Communist Party newspaper noted the fire, commenting that the "heroic fire brigade" had saved countless lives by its skill and devotion to duty, also preventing more serious damage to the nearby oil facilities.
The fire was reportedly begun by a "technical malfunction" in the automatic refinery control systems and spread rapidly, but was swiftly extinguished, "not without casualties among the brave men detailed to attack the fire, and the courageous workmen who raced heroically to their comrades' side."
Though somewhat at odds with Western reports, the fire in the area did go out more quickly than had been expected. Western officials are now speculating about a highly sophisticated firefighting system built into the Nizhnevartovs facility that allowed the Soviets to extinguish the fire.
AB-BA-2-3 16: 01 EST-FL-
"They didn't ask me," explained Chief of the General Staff Marshal Shavyrin. "They didn't ask for my evaluation. The political decision was already made when they called me in Thursday night. When was the last time the Defense Minister asked me for a substantive judgmental decision?"
"And what did you say?" asked Marshal Rozhkov, Commander-in-Chief of Ground Forces. The initial response was a grim, ironic smile.
"That the armed forces of the Soviet Union were able to carry out this task, given four months of preparation."
"Four months..." Rozhkov stared out the window. He turned back. "We won't be ready."
"Hostilities will commence on 15 June," Shavyrin replied. "We must be ready, Yuri. And what choice did I have? Would you have had me say, 'I am sorry, Comrade General Secretary, but the Soviet Army is unable to carry out this task'? I would have been dismissed and replaced by someone more tractable-you know who my replacement will be. Would you rather answer to Marshal Bukharin-"
"That fool!" Rozhkov growled. It had been the then-Lieutenant General Bukharin whose brilliant plan had led the Soviet Army into Afghanistan. Professionally a nonentity, his political connections had not only saved him, but continued his career to near the pinnacle of uniformed power. A clever man, Bukharin. Never involved in the mountain campaigns himself, he could point to his brilliant paper plan and complain that it had been poorly executed, after he had moved on to command of the Kiev Military District, historically the shining gate of marshal's rank.
"So, would you have him in this office, dictating your plans to you?" Shavyrin asked. Rozhkov shook his head. The two men had been friends and comrades since each had commanded a tank troop in the same regiment, just in time for the final surge toward Vienna in 1945.
"How are we to go about it?" Rozhkov asked.
"Red Storm," the Marshal replied simply. Red Storm was the plan for a mechanized attack into West Germany and the Low Countries. Constantly updated for changes in the force structures of both sides, it called for a two-to three-week campaign commencing after a rapid escalation of tension between East and West. Despite this, in accordance with standard Soviet strategic doctrine, it called for strategic surprise as a precondition for success, and the use of conventional weapons only.
"At least they aren't talking about atomic arms." Rozhkov grunted. Other plans with other names applied to different scenarios, including many for the use of tactical and even strategic nuclear arms, something no one in uniform wished to contemplate. Despite all the saber-rattling of their political masters, these professional soldiers knew all too well that the use of nuclear arms made only for ghastly uncertainties. "And the maskirovka?"
"In two parts. The first is purely political, to work against the United States. The second part, immediately before the war begins, is from KGB. You know it, from KGB Group Nord. We reviewed it two years ago."
Rozhkov grunted. Group Nord was an ad hoc committee of KGB department chiefs, first assembled by then-chief of the KGB Yuri Andropov in the mid-1970s. Its purpose was to research means of splitting the NATO alliance, and in general to conduct political and psychological operations aimed at undermining Western will. Its specific plan to shake the NATO military and political structure in preparation for a shooting war was Nord's proudest example of legerdemain. But would it work?
The two senior officers shared an ironic look. Like most professional soldiers, they distrusted spies and all their plans.
"Four months," Rozhkov repeated. "We have much to do. And if this KGB magic fails to work?"
"It is a good plan. It need only deceive the West for a week, though two weeks would be better. The key, of course, is how quickly NATO can reach full readiness. If we can delay the mobilization process seven days, victory is assured-"
"And if not?" Rozhkov asked sharply, knowing that even a seven-day delay was no guarantee.
"Then it is not assured, but the balance of forces is on our side. You know that, Yuri." The option of recalling the mobilized forces had never been discussed with the Chief of the General Staff.
"We will need to improve discipline throughout the force first of all," CINC-Ground said. "And I need to inform our senior commanders at once. We need to implement intense training operations. Just how awful is this fuel problem?"
Shavyrin handed his subordinate the notes. "It could be worse. We have enough for extended unit training. Your task is no easy one, Yuri, but four months is a long time for this task, is it not?"
It wasn't, but there was no point in saying so. "As you say, four months to instill fighting discipline. I will have a free hand?"
"Within limits."
"It is one thing to make a private soldier snap to the orders of his sergeant. It might be another for officers conditioned to pushing paper to change into combat leaders." Rozhkov skirted the issue, but his superior received the message clearly enough.
"A free hand on both, Yuri. But act carefully, for both our sakes."
Rozhkov nodded briefly. He knew whom he'd use to get this done. "With the troops we led forty years ago, Andrey, we could do this." Rozhkov sat down. "And in truth we have the same raw material now that we had then-and better weapons. The chief unknown remains the men. When we drove our tanks into Vienna, our men were tough, hard veterans-"
"And so were the SS bastards we crushed." Shavyrin smiled, remembering. "Keep in mind that the same forces are at work in the West, even more so. How well will they fight, surprised, divided? It can work. We must make it work."
"I'm meeting with our field commanders Monday. I will tell them myself "