Do these reforms reduce the likelihood of a conventional war in Europe like the one pictured in the fictional scenario? This can be argued in either direction. On the one hand, Gorbachev's reforms contain the risk of increasing social and political tensions in the Warsaw Pact satellite countries like the fictional German crisis portrayed here. Such a crisis is one of the more likely events to precipitate a war in Europe. On the other hand, Soviet unilateral arms reductions, although far from bringing both sides to parity in combat power, do reduce the probability for Soviet success in a conventional war with NATO. Soviet anxieties over the combat potential of their forces at a tactical level, as well as real reductions in the quantitative superiority enjoyed by the Warsaw Pact countries in many areas of conventional arms, are likely to reduce the probability of conventional war in Europe in the early 1990s.
Indeed, when writing the first chapter of this book, I found it extremely difficult to imagine a convincing set of political and military circumstances that would trigger a conventional war in Europe today. In spite of the enormous mistrust that still exists between the NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries, both sides are haunted by fears of the catastrophe that a war might bring.
It is easy enough, when sitting in the West, to see all those Soviet tanks and artillery pieces, and dream up some nefarious Soviet scheme to conquer Western Europe. But another picture emerges if you try to place yourself in the shoes of Soviet military leaders and confront the same issues from the Soviet perspective. It is my hope that this book has managed to give its readers a somewhat different perspective of the military balance in Europe today.
GLOSSARY
ACRV: Armored command and reconnaissance vehicle, like the Soviet 1V12 armored vehicles.
AGS-17: Soviet 30mm automatic grenade launcher. Also called Plamya (flame), it is the size of a heavy machine gun, but has a short, stubby barrel. It is comparable to the American Mk.19 40mm grenade launcher.
AHR: Attack Helicopter Regiment.
Akatsiya: Soviet name for the 2S3 152mm self-propelled howitzer. Means "acacia" in Russian. The Soviets codename their artillery systems with the names of flowers or plants.
AKS-74: New standard Soviet assault rifle. The earlier AK-47 and AKM used 7.62mm ammunition; the AK-74 series uses 5.45mm ammunition, which allows the rifleman to carry more rounds.
AMRAAM: Advanced medium range air-to-air missile, AIM-120A. A successor to the older American AIM-7 Sparrow.
Anona: Soviet name for the 2S9 120mm self-propelled, airmobile mortar/howitzer. Means "anemone" in Russian.
APFSDS: Armor-piercing, fin-stabilized, discarding sabot. Acronym for tank ammunition using a kinetic energy penetrator. The round penetrates thick armor by speed and mass (kinetic energy) rather than high-explosive pressure (chemical energy). Also called "hard core" rounds by the Soviets, or "sabot" rounds by American tankers.
Army: Soviet term for a military formation consisting of several divisions and their supporting units. Comparable to a NATO corps. A NATO army is comparable to a Soviet front.
ATGM: Antitank guided missile. The Russians use their own acronym, PTURS.
BMD: Russian acronym for airlanding fighting vehicle, a tracked, armored troop-carrying vehicle used by Soviet paratrooper forces. The BMD-1 is armed with the same turret as the BMP-1, while the BMD-2 is a turretless troop carrier and command vehicle. The BMD-1 resembles a miniature BMP-1 and carries fewer troops.
BMP: Russian acronym for infantry fighting vehicle, a tracked annored infantry vehicle with turret-mounted weapon and side firing ports. The BMP-1 is armed with a 73 mm low-pressure gun; the BMP-2 is armed with a 30mm automatic cannon.
Border Guards: Paramilitary branch of the Soviet KGB security forces used to patrol Soviet frontiers as well as perform basic security and customs duty at airports and harbors.
BRM: Russian acronym for armored reconnaissance vehicle. This lightly armored scout vehicle is based on the same chassis as the BMP-1, but has a larger two-man turret, better sighting devices, and carries a smaller crew. The BRM-1 has a "Tall Mike" surveillance radar on a telescoping mount, fitted on the turret rear. BRM-2 uses a revised turret with a 30mm gun, like the BMP-2.
BTR: Russian acronym for annored transporter. This wheeled, armored infantry vehicle is a less expensive counterpart to the tracked BMP. Three types of BTR are commonly in service in the Soviet army — the BTR-60, BTR-70, and BTR-80. They are all similar in appearance and armament, and the main change through the series has been evolutionary improvement in the engine and hull design.
Bundeswehr: The West German Army.
Chobham armor: A type of tank armor developed by a British research establishment in Chobham, hence its name. It consists of spaced layers of steel and non-metallic armors, although the exact composition is still classified. It has been used, in both its original or improved form, on current NATO tanks like the American M1 Abrams, German Leopard II, and British Challenger.
DOSAAF: Russian acronym for Volunteer Society for Cooperation with the Army, Air Force, and Fleet. Soviet government organization responsible for pro-military indoctrination and training amongst Soviet youth.
DPICM: Dual-purpose improved conventional munitions. A type of American artillery shell containing small submunitions that can be used against annored or unarmored targets, hence dual-purpose. This aeronym usually refers to an advanced version of the ICM first introduced in the late 1980s.
DShB: Russian acronym for Air Assault Force, a branch of the Soviet Army specializing in airmobile operations.
Durandaclass="underline" Type of runway cratering munition developed by Matra in France, but employed by several NATO air forces including the U.S. Air Force. The Durandal contains a rocket motor which propels it at high speed against concrete runways. The warhead has a time-delay mechanism so that it explodes seconds after impact, making a deep crater which is more difficult to repair.
ECM: Electronic countermeasures. Electronic systems designed to defeat enemy electronic sensors like radars and radar-based missile guidance systems.
ERA: Explosive reactive armor. A type of added-on armor consisting of small boxes of steel-encased plastic explosive. When hit by a shapedcharge warhead (as on antitank missiles), the explosive detonates, pushing the steel casing into the path of the warhead's explosive jet, thus preventing the warhead from penetrating the main armor of the tank. ERA has been in use on Soviet tanks since the mid-1980s.
FASCAM: Family of artillery scatterable mines. This includes the RAAM (remote antiarmor mines), used against tanks, and ADAM (area denial antipersonnel mines), used against troops. Each artillery shell contains several small mines; the projectile opens up in the air, scattering the mines to the ground below.
FLIR: Forward looking infrared. Also called thermal imagers, these electro-optical sensors can see in the dark by sensing the temperature (infrared) difference between tanks, soldiers, or military equipment, and the cooler natural background. They are used as surveillance sights on many different NATO weapon systems including tanks, attack helicopters, and antitank missile launchers. They are not commonly used on Soviet systems, except for a more simplified thermal pointer system used on some Soviet fighters like the MiG-29.
FROG-7: Free Rocket Over Ground-7. The NATO reporting name for the Soviet ballistic artillery rocket the Russians call Luna-M. It is used by divisional or army artillery units to deliver tactical nuclear or chemical warheads.
Front: Soviet military formation consisting of several armies. Comparable to a NATO army. Several fronts make up a theatre of operations.