“There is very little time,” he said again. “If we give the order at once, we can have the water in the Three Gorges catchment down to flood-control levels within two days. Then, if the dam is attacked, the flooding downstream will be a nuisance, not a disaster.”
“Completely out of the question!” Ma Yong snapped. “Ludicrous! The hydroelectric turbines from Three Gorges serve almost fifteen percent of our nationwide power needs. If we lower the reservoir to flood-control levels, it will impact our industrial base, food production, transportation, communications… I can’t even begin to calculate how badly our national economy would suffer.”
Ma was Party Secretary of the Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs. His first, last, and only concern was the strength of the Chinese economy. This made him an instant opponent of any person or agency which threatened China’s financial bottom line.
“Then I suggest a different calculation,” Jia said. “Try calculating how badly our transportation and industry will be damaged when half the railroad bridges and road bridges in China are wiped out by catastrophic flooding. And while you are playing with numbers, you should try to estimate how long it will take your precious economy to recover when 400 million of our comrades are killed.”
“Where is your proof?” Ma asked in an acid tone. “How do you know that the Indians will attack Three Gorges? Have they shared their secret plans with you? Or do you have your own intelligence sources, operating within the Indian government?”
“Of course not,” Jia said. “But I can read a map. By eliminating our defensive missile sites at Chengdu, Zigong, and Chongqing, they have cleared a path for a cruise missile strike against the dam. I tell you, comrades — the Indians are planning to attack Three Gorges.”
This brought low murmurs around the table.
First Vice Premier Lu Shi raised a hand and all conversation ceased. “Comrade Jia,” he said slowly. “I do not doubt your sincerity, and your concerns are worthy of serious consideration. But there is such a thing as too much caution. As Comrade Ma has pointed out, we have no real evidence that our neighbors to the south are planning to destroy Three Gorges. Such an attack would constitute a direct and crippling strike against our national infrastructure. The Indian government understands that we would be forced to resort to strategic options.”
That last phrase seemed to leave a breath of chill on the air. Among the senior elite of the Communist Party, the word ‘strategic’ was an accepted euphemism for ‘nuclear.’
Wei Jintao, Party Secretary of the State Council, brought his fingertips together. “Perhaps it would be wise to deescalate the situation, before it becomes necessary to consider… ah… strategic options.”
He looked toward Lu Shi. “If our goal was to punish India for harboring enemies of China, surely we have accomplished that. If our goal was to demonstrate military dominance in the region, we have accomplished that as well. I’m not sure what we can expect to gain by continuing this altercation with India.”
Before Lu could respond, Jia spoke again. “Why are we speaking in circumlocutions? We’re the top echelon of leadership in this country. If we cannot talk plainly here, how will we make the straightforward decisions that need to be made? If we are talking about nuclear weapons, we should not disguise that fact by referring to them as ‘strategic options.’ And we should stop pretending that this is some kind of ‘altercation.’ Everyone in this room knows that we have gone beyond that. When we strip away the ambiguous language, we are discussing the possibility of nuclear war with India.”
He tapped a finger sharply on the table top. “Yes. I say the words openly. Nuclear war. We all need to think about those words, and we need to think about what they mean. Because we’re stumbling blindly in that direction, and no one at this table wants to admit it.”
Several of the committee members looked as if they wanted to agree, but none of them spoke.
Lu Shi regarded Jia coolly, but his voice remained level. “Again, Comrade Jia, I concede your sincerity, and I don’t wish to make light of your concerns. But I think you are overreacting. We have vanquished the Indian aircraft carrier. We have shown the American Navy that they cannot interfere in the affairs of China without consequences. The major engagements are now over. There may be a few skirmishes to deal with, but the remaining tasks will be primarily political, not military.”
Wei Jintao raised an eyebrow. “May we ask you to clarify that, Comrade Lu?”
Lu Shi didn’t answer. Instead, Premiere Xiao Qishan cleared his throat. Every eye turned instantly in his direction.
Since the Premiere’s triple bypass surgery the year before, there had been one overt attempt to force the old dragon out of office, and several behind-the-scenes maneuvers to nudge him into retirement. But Lu Shi had battled tirelessly to keep Xiao in power.
It was widely understood that Lu Shi would succeed Xiao Qishan as Premiere, which made his continued support of the aging leader something of a mystery. No one could understand why Lu Shi would deliberately postpone his own assent to ultimate power. Could it be something as simple as loyalty to the Premiere? Was Lu following a timetable which made the delay necessary, or desirable? Was it something else entirely? Although there was considerable speculation, no one seemed to have an answer.
Lu’s motive for continuing to support Xiao Qishan was not clear, but the result was no secret at all. The Premiere repaid that support in-kind, by putting his own power and influence at the disposal of Lu Shi.
Xiao went through the motions of thoughtful deliberation and personal objectivity, but — when the rhetoric was sifted out and his actions were evaluated — the old leader backed Lu Shi’s decisions every time.
Premiere Xiao cleared his throat again, more softly this time. Several of the faces turned in his direction had an expectant quality about them, as though some of the committee members were hoping that the gravity of the situation would force Xiao to break with Lu Shi, and reassert the firm hand of leadership. Pull them collectively back from what might be the edge of catastrophe.
If so, they were destined to be disappointed.
“The People’s Republic of China is no longer a nation of peasants,” Xiao said. “We are a global economic power, and the People’s Liberation Army is rapidly becoming the preeminent military force on the planet. The other nations of the world must learn that we can no longer be backed into a corner.”
Jia Bangguo and Wei Jintao exchanged glances across the table. The words coming from Xiao’s mouth had clearly been scripted by Lu Shi.
The Premiere continued speaking. “I have transmitted instructions to our ambassadors in the United States and India, detailing our demands to the governments of both countries. If India wishes to return to normal relations with China, they must cease harboring our enemies, including the terrorists who continue to incite violence in the Tibetan Autonomous Region. As a gesture of good faith, they must begin by extraditing the criminal agitator, the Dalai Lama. By similar token, the United States is placed on notice… The days of the American military hegemony are ended. If they attempt to intrude in the affairs of the People’s Republic, they will discover that their dwindling power is no longer a match for ours.”
Lu Shi nodded. “Well said, Comrade Premier.”
He pointed his fierce gaze at each of the other committee members. “This is our moment,” he said. “The star of the West is falling, even as ours is ascending. If our will remains strong, we will own this century.”