22Bethmann made his intentions plain in his conferences of Oct. 14 and Nov. 4, 1909, with the British Ambassador. Cf. Yale University, Kiderlin-Wächter Papers, Box 16, Folder 173; with Goschen to Grey, Oct. 15 and Nov. 4, 1909, in BD VI, Nrs. 200, 204. Fritz Fischer, “Die Neutralität Englands als Ziel deutscher Politik 1908/09–1914,” in Von der freien Gemeinde zum foderalistischen Europa, ed. F. Esterbauer et al. (Berlin, 1983), pp. 261–282, insists this was no more than an effort to clear the ground for a general war. For more balanced interpretations of Bethmann’s policies cf. Oswald Hauser, Deutschland und der englisch-russische Gegensatz, 1900–1914 (Göttingen, 1958); Hansjoachim Henning, Deutschlands Verhaltnis zu England in Bethmann-Hollwegs Aussenpolitik 1909–1914 (Köln, 1962), and more generally and very perceptively, Konrad Jarausch, The Enigmatic Chancellor. Bethmann Hollweg and the Hubris of Imperial Germany (New Haven, Conn., 1973), pp. 108 ff.
23Bethmann to Metternich, Nov. 10, 1909, Kiderlin Papers 10/173.
24Bethmann’s memorandum of Feb. 20, 1910, PAAA, Orientalia Generalia 5/17.
25Mirbach to Bethmann, Oct. 4 and Oct. 20, 1910, PAAA, Deutschland 131/32; Pourtalés to Bethmann, Apr. 22, 1910, ibid., 30; Hugh O’Bierne to Grey, Oct. 5, 1910, BDFA VI, Nr. 40.
26A useful recent treatment of the Potsdam Conference is Robert E. Simmons, “German Balkan Diplomacy, 1906–1913. The Genesis and Implementation of a War-Risk Policy” (Ph.D. Dissertation, Auburn University, 1982), 320 ff. Key documents include Bethmann to William, Nov. 1 and Nov. 6, 1910, GP XXVI, 2, Nrs. 10152, 10153; Bethmann to Pourtalès, Nov. 8 and Nov. 15, 1910, ibid., Nrs. 10155 and 10159; Bethmann to Aehrenthal, Nov. 14, 1910, PAAA, Orientalia Generalia 5/17; and Tschirsky to Bethmann, Nov. 6 and Nov. 20, 1910, PAAA, Deutschland 131/32. Germany’s problem in generating investment capital is described in Raymond Poidevin, “Weltpolitik allemand et capitaux frangais 1898–1914,” in Deutschland in der Weltpolitik des 19. und 20. Jahrhunderts, ed. I. Geiss, B-J Wendt (Düsseldorf, 1973), 237–249.
27“Die wichtigsten Veränderungen im Heerwesen Russlands im Jahre 1910,” BA/MA, RM5/1486; Military attaché’s report to war ministry of Sept. 13, 1911, PAAA, Russland 72/92.
28Kiderlin to Lichnowski, Dec. 6, 1912, PAAA, Deutschland 131/34; letter of Mar. 20, 1909, in E. Jäckh, Kiderlin-Wächter, der Staatsmann und Mensch, Vol. II (Stuttgart, 1924), 26–27.
29V. N. Kokovtsov, Out of My Past, ed. H. H. Fischer, M. L. Malveev (Stanford, 1935), 334 ff.; Mary S. Conroy, Peter Arkad’evich Stolypin: Practical Politics in Late Tsarist Russia (Boulder, Colo., 1976); Ferenczi, Aussenpolitik und Öffentlicheit, 259 ff.
30Hans Uebersberger, Österreich zwischen Russland und Serbien (Köln, Graz, 1958), highlights on the other hand the objective threat these Russian initiatives posed to vital Habsburg interests.
31For Russia’s Balkan policy generally cf. Andrew Rossos, Russia and the Balkans: Inter-Balkan Rivalries and Russian Foreign Policy, 1908–1914 (Toronto, 1981); and E. C. Thaden, Russia and the Balkan Alliance of 1912 (University Park, Penn., 1965).
32At the conference of the general staffs, held on August 31. France, Ministére des Affaires Étrangéres, Documents Diplomatiques Français 1871–1914, 41 vols. (Paris, 1929–59), 3rd Series, II, Nr. 90 (hereafter cited as DDF).
33Cf. D. W. Spring, “Russia and the Franco-Russian Alliance, 1905–14: Dependence or Interdependence?” Slavonic and East European Review LXVI (1988), 564–592; and Douglas Porch, “The Marne and After: A Reappraisal of French Strategy in the First World War,” The Journal of Military History, LIII (1989), 363–386. Donald R. Mathieu, “The Role of Russia in French Foreign Policy, 1908–1914” (Ph.D. Dissertation, Stanford University, 1968); and Carol H. Wilcox, “The Franco-Russian Alliance, 1908–1911” (Ph.D. Dissertation, Clark University, 1968), survey this subject in detail from a diplomatic perspective.
34Report of the German consulate at Tiflis, Dec. 25, 1912, in PAAA, Russland 72/94. On the Turkish rearmament after 1908 see particularly Jehuda L. Wallach, Anatomie einer Militärhilfe. Die preussisch-deutsche Militärmissionen in der Türkei, 1835–1919 (Düsseldorf, 1976).
35Geoffrey Barraclough, From Agadir to Armageddon (New York, 1982), is a strong recent argument for the Second Moroccan Crisis as a decisive event in the origins of World War I. Douglas Porch, The Conquest of Morocco (New York, 1983), focusses on the local and regional factors inspiring the French action. J. C. Allain, Agadir 1911 (Paris, 1976), is a detailed analysis from a French perspective. Emily Oncken, Panthersprung nach Agadir: Die deutsche Politik während der zweiten Marokkokrise 1911 (Düsseldorf, 1981), is excellent for the German side.
36Cf. T. W. Childs, “Mediterranean Imbroglio: The Diplomatic Origins of Modern Libya (The Diplomacy of the Belligerents during the Italo-Turkish War, 1911–1912)” (Ph.D. Dissertation, Georgetown University, 1982); and R. J. B. Bosworth, Italy, the Least of the Great Powers. Italian Foreign Policy before the First World War (Cambridge, 1979), 127 passim.
37Sazonov expressed himself in those terms to his ambassador to Bulgaria in October, 1911. A. Nekliudov, Diplomatic Reminiscences 1911–1917 (London, 1920), 45–46. Hartwig was quoted by the German ambassador to Serbia a year later. Griesinger to Bethmann, Oct. 28, 1912, PAAA, Serbien 17/8.
38Pourtalès to Bethmann, Feb. 5, 1912; and Bethmann’s report of July 6/7, 1912, PAAA, Orientalia Generalia 5/17.
39Memorandum of Oct. 9, 1912, PAAA, Russland 72/93.
40For Austria’s preparations, cf. Samuel R. Williamson, Jr., “Military Dimensions of Habsburg-Romanov Relations During the Era of the Balkan Wars,” in East Central European Society and the Balkan Wars, ed. B. Kiräly, D. Djordjevic (New York, 1987), 328–345.
41Reports from Germany’s Warsaw consulate of Oct. 19, 1912, and the Moscow consulate of Oct. 6, Nov. 11, and Nov. 28, 1912, PAAA, Russland 72/93.
42Kiderlin to Tschirsky, Nov. 26, 1912, PAAA, Deutschland 143.
43Pourtales to Bethmann, Nov. 19 and Nov. 20, 1912, PAAA, Russland 72/93; Kagenech to foreign office, Nov. 27, 1912, PAAA, Deutschland 143. Cf. also E. Tuiczynski, “Österreich-Ungarn und Südosteuropa während der Balkan-kriege,” Balkan Studies V (1964), 11–46.; Luigi Albertini, The Origins of the War of 1914, tr. and ed. I. M. Massey, 3 vols. (London, 1952–57), I, 379 ff.; and L. C. F. Turner, Origins of the First World War (New York, 1970), pp. 40 ff.
44Kokovtsov, Out of My Past, 344 ff.; Ernest R. May, “Cabinet, Tsar, Kaiser: Three Approaches to Assessment,” in Knowing One’s Enemies. Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars, ed. E. R. May, (Princeton, 1984), 17–26.