In July 2003, I posed the question to Clark yet again; he was consistent with previous statements: “I’m confident that if the Soviets had crossed the line—if it [the situation] had come to reasonable necessity to use force—he [Reagan] was ready to do it; he was prepared. He wouldn’t want to [use military force] but he was prepared.” By Soviets crossing the line, Clark said he meant a Red Army invasion of Poland: “He [Reagan] would not tolerate a repeat of the Hungarian or Czechoslovakian incidents.”57
Judging from some of these accounts, certainly Clark’s, Reagan may have been willing, if need be, under the worst circumstances, to go toe-to-toe with the Soviets on Polish territory, meaning the use of real military force—and assuming he had sufficient firepower.58 On the other hand, others have no memory of such a Reagan consideration, and reject it entirely. Ed Meese, a close adviser, stated: “I have no recollection of that at all. I think that even the word ‘considered’ [the use of force] is too strong based on my recollection of our policy. I don’t remember any time when that was proposed as even an option.” Yet, Meese continued, “That doesn’t mean it didn’t happen at any time. Maybe it was recommended by lower-level staff in the NSC. I just don’t recall it.” Meese adds this caution: “It [the idea to use force] doesn’t make much sense to me. Of all the things Ronald Reagan did, he didn’t want a major war in Europe, or a nuclear war, or a third world war. He could be tough but he didn’t want to be overly provocative. And that would’ve been very provocative.”59
Provocative, indeed. In the end, Reagan obviously never pursued the force option, precisely for all the right reasons—as listed by Pipes and Meese in particular. It would have been too dangerous. Also, of course, the Red Army never invaded Poland, sparing him the decision. Still, this was an extremely volatile, high-stakes notion that Reagan once thought through and discussed with his closest advisers. Moreover, it drives home the gravity of the Poland situation in the 1980s.
DECEMBER 14, 1981—REAGAN’S RESPONSE TO MARTIAL LAW
While military force was out, Reagan did have a number of other options to counter the declaration of martial law. One of his first responses was to call Pope John Paul II on December 14 to discuss the situation. In addition to expressing his outrage, he told the pope: “Our country was inspired when you visited Poland, and to see their commitment to religion and belief in God. It was an inspiration…. All of us were very thrilled.” Reagan said he looked forward to a time when the two men could meet in person, and the two began seeking ways to cooperate in these immediate days following martial law.60
Reagan’s anger toward the Soviets flowed over into two separate letters sent to the pope on December 17 and 29, 1981, neither of which was declassified until July 2000.61 In the December 17 dispatch, Reagan asked the pope to urge General Jaruzelski to hold a meeting with Walesa and Archbishop Glemp. In the second letter, he explained the countermeasures his administration was taking against the USSR, while asking the pope to use his influence with the Polish Church to lift martial law, gain the release of detainees, and resume a dialogue with Solidarity. In addition, he requested that John Paul II press other Western countries to join the United States. “If we are to keep alive the hope for freedom in Poland,” Reagan told the pope, “it lies in this direction.”62
Although he was clearly disturbed by the events unfolding, Reagan grasped the uniqueness of this historical moment. In his diary entry for December 15, 1981, two days after martial law was declared, he noted that in that day’s NSC meeting, “I took a stand that this may be the last chance in our lifetime to see a change in the Soviet empire’s colonial policy re Eastern Europe.”63 Nonetheless, he also noted that his options were limited and fraught with danger. Among these, he did not desire a re-occurrence of what had happened under President Eisenhower, whom Reagan greatly respected, during the Hungarian uprising of 1956. He later remembered: “Although we wanted to let the Polish people who were struggling for liberty know that we were behind them, we couldn’t send out a false signal (as some say the United States did before the doomed 1956 uprisings in Hungary), leading them to expect us to intervene militarily on their side during a revolution.” Hence, “as much as we might want to help, there were limits on the actions our people would support in Poland, especially if, as was likely, there was a charade in which the Polish government appeared to request intervention by Russian troops.”64
Within the Reagan administration, the situation was tense and filled with peril. The State Department, said Richard Pipes, assured the NSC that the Soviet Union was not involved—a foolish assumption that Reagan must have instantly deemed ludicrous. Pipes said that the NSC meetings of December 19, 21, 22, and 23 were emotionally charged—“inspired largely by Reagan’s mounting fury at the communists.” He said that Reagan’s mind raced back to the 1930s when the democracies failed to halt German and Japanese aggression, a history which he had long ago vowed never to repeat.65
At the December 21 meeting, Pipes said that Reagan, “spoke eloquently and in great anger,” claiming that the events in Poland were the first time in sixty years that something of this magnitude had happened. Referencing a 1937 FDR speech that advocated a “quarantine” of aggressor states, Reagan suggested that diplomatic and economic relations with the USSR be reduced to a minimum. Moreover, he recommended that if U.S. allies did not join in, America should review its alliance. Reagan even maintained that the United States should be prepared to boycott nations that continued to trade with the Soviets.66
As talk escalated, Reagan began to get impatient with developments, insisting at the December 22 meeting that the White House faced “the last chance of a lifetime to go against this damned force.” In response to Reagan’s lead, Pipes said that the rest of the cabinet, “fell in step, although with varying degrees of enthusiasm.” Secretary of State Haig worried about the reaction of Western European allies to any form of U.S. sanctions, while cabinet members whose departments involved the economy—the departments of Commerce, Treasury, and Agriculture—were also concerned. Nonetheless, said Pipes, “on Reagan’s insistence, quite severe punitive measures were adopted”—measures soon to be announced.67
DECEMBER 23, 1981: A CANDLE AND A PRAYER
With feelings escalating on both sides, tempers reached critical mass by December 23. The day began with a Genrikh Borovik piece for Literaturnaya Gazeta titled “Plot Against Poland,” with the subtitle, “Lies, Lies, and More Lies—In Both American Newspapers and Washington’s Official Statements.”68 If Borovik was angry when he filed his article, by the end of the day he would be screaming. On the other side, the Reagan team started the day with another dramatic NSC meeting on the crisis, in which Secretary of State Haig warned that any U.S. sanctions against the USSR would incense Western Europe, especially West Germany, which was led by the leftist Helmut Schmidt. “So be it,” was Reagan’s reply. If this was the case, then America would “go it alone.”69
After the meeting, Reagan reached for his favorite, surest weapon—the rhetorical missile. He told reporters that “if ever there was an example of the moral bankruptcy of communism,” martial law was it.70 Yet, he had much more to say, and later that evening, on national television, he gave a major presidential speech on the Poland situation. In the speech, he noted that ten million of Poland’s thirty-six million citizens were members of Solidarity. Taken together with their families, he rightly said that these Solidarity members accounted for the “overwhelming majority” of the Polish population. “By persecuting Solidarity,” said Reagan, the Polish government, which he saw as acting as an extension of the Soviet government and broader Communist movement, “wages war against its own people,” a point he made repeatedly in days ahead.71