Finally, NSDD-54 stated that the administration “will employ commercial, financial, exchange, informational, and diplomatic instruments in implementing its policy toward Eastern Europe.” The directive listed ten such instruments, five of which—probably the most important—remain partly or fully redacted.56
Though much of the directive’s contents remain unclear at best, the language clearly set out broad goals for eliciting dramatic change in Eastern Europe. Fittingly, it was at this time that some members of the mainstream media began catching on to this plan for Eastern Europe. On September 23, 1982, the New York Times ran an extraordinary article under the selfexplanatory headline, “After Détente, the Goal is to Prevail.” In this giant wake-up call to its readership, the Times noted that from President Truman to President Johnson, the watchword on policy toward the USSR was “containment.” From President Nixon through President Carter, it was “détente.” Now under Reagan, the watchword was “to prevail.” The article quoted Tom Reed: “We believe the free world can prevail.” Speaking for Reagan, Reed said that “not since John Kennedy left the world stage have we dared to dream such dreams.” At the same time, Reed tried to reassure the typical Times reader: “there’s nothing wrong with winning.”57
The New York Times piece was quite detailed, going through the precise logistics over what exactly it meant to prevail. As Reagan officials explained, “It means pushing Russian influence back inside the borders of the Soviet Union.” The Times added: “To prevail… means to reverse the geographic expansion of Soviet political influence and military power. It means to loosen Russian controls over Eastern Europe, Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea.” How would this be done?—“with the combined pressure of a military buildup along with diplomatic, economic, and propaganda measures.”
Prevailing meant rearming America with increased military spending, impeding the Siberian pipeline, and reducing Soviet access to U.S. technology. The “concept of prevailing,” said the Times, was also “at the heart” of Reagan’s policies in Poland, Afghanistan, China, and elsewhere. According to the Times, Reagan officials believed that such pressures meant that “in the long run,” victory would be achieved without armed conflict. The article concluded with a prophetic timeline, noting that Reagan officials believed that Soviet economic weaknesses would “intensify toward the end of this decade,” as America regained economic and military strength.58
All of this was exactly right—a testimony to fine journalism and to the fact that what Reagan officials said after the presidency perfectly matched what they said during the presidency. The Times published these observations only three weeks after the release of NSDD-54.
THE ECONOMIC CAMPAIGN FALLS INTO PLACE: NSDD-66
While the Times article stirred up some domestic controversy, to the administration everything remained business as usual, and just before Leonid Brezhnev’s death in November 1982, Ronald Reagan decided to impose limited trade and credit restrictions on the Kremlin. Reagan said that this meant that “none of us”—an overly idealistic reference to the G-7 economic partners—“would subsidize the Soviet economy or the Soviet military expansion by offering preferential trading terms or easy credits,” nor would they “restrict the flow of products and technology that would increase Soviet military capabilities.”59
This thinking, which was manifest in September’s NSDD-54, was also evident in November’s NSDD-66—another product of Bill Clark’s NSC, where it was written chiefly by Roger Robinson.60 In the strongest form to date, NSDD-66 formally authorized comprehensive economic warfare against the USSR. Robinson called the directive the “centerpiece” of the economic strategy.61 In the words of the CIA’s senior economic warfare strategist, Henry Rowen, the intent of NSDD-66 was to “cause such stress on the [Soviet] system that it will implode.”62 Championed by Clark, Casey, and Weinberger, the directive found warm reception with the president.
The directive was declassified in 1995, sooner than expected given its aggressive nature and the fact that its circulation was restricted to a small group of individuals.63 (This also means that only a few Reagan officials knew how all the components fit together.64) Reading the document, however, it is not surprising that it was declassified so soon: It is written vaguely enough to seem almost innocuous.
Not at all innocuous were the destructive implications unleashed by the document’s subtle language. What Reagan authorized in signing NSDD-66 was nothing less than a full search for means to destroy vital elements of the Soviet economy, authorizing an all-out search-and-destroy mission. Until NSDD-66 was declassified with the harmless title, “East-West Economic Relations and Poland-Related Sanctions,” the working title of the NSDD was the more provocative (and accurate) “Protracted Economic Warfare Against the USSR.”65
Beginning auspiciously with the statement: “This framework agreement will govern East-West economic relations for the remainder of this decade and beyond,” it was clear from the onset of the document that within the farsighted text of NSDD-66 lay the potential to win the Cold War.66 The directive sought formal commitment from leading Western European nations “not to sign or approve any new contracts for the purchase of Soviet gas” during a period specified in the NSDD. More specific language in NSDD-66 talked of reaching an agreement to “not commit to any incremental deliveries of Soviet gas beyond the amounts contracted for from the first strand of the Siberian pipeline.”
In addition, NSDD-66 set forth three other objectives with Western European allies, the first of which was to gain agreement to add as many critical technologies as possible to the COCOM list. COCOM, the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls, was created early in the Cold War to restrict certain Western exports to the Soviet bloc, particularly hightech products. NSDD-66 looked to harmonize allied coordination in enforcing the COCOM product list and to produce an improved, effective list of results. The second objective of NSDD-66 was to secure an agreement on limits to advanced technology and equipment that went “beyond the expanded COCOM list,” with, again, more emphasis on the oil and gas sector. Finally, the directive sought agreement among OECD countries (largely Western nations) to “substantially raise interest rates to the USSR to achieve further restraints on officially backed credits such as higher down payments, shortened maturities and an established framework to monitor this process.”67
NSDD-66 had two tracks, one concerning action by the Reagan administration and the other involving Western European allies. Unfortunately for the Reagan team, Western Europe resisted much of this ideological-economic warfare. And, in fact, the NSDD acknowledged that the governments of the UK, West Germany, France, and Italy, not to mention Canada and Japan, had stated explicitly, “That it is not their purpose to engage in economic warfare against the USSR.”68 Still, this resistance never diminished NSDD-66’s success. Overall, it was quite effective as a license to Reagan staff to identify Soviet economic vulnerabilities, even if the United States had to act alone.
Indeed, the administration was gung ho in its endeavor to act in its own best interest. Another section of NSDD-66, headed “Preparations within the U.S. Government,” identified SIG-IEP as the group “responsible for the attainment of U.S. objectives in the context of the work program.” That dry language masked a malicious intent: so-called “interagency working groups” would be established under the supervision of SIG-IEP “to develop U.S. positions and strategies for the achievement of these objectives.” In addition, “a working group will be established for an overall study of East-West economic relations in the context of political and strategic considerations.” Through SIG-IEP, these working groups would submit to the president (for approval) various “strategies for attaining U.S. objectives.”69