Bill said, “But hold on here. First, that still doesn’t solve the nuclear deterrence factor.”
David said, “Actually… to be honest, especially if they disrupted communication enough, I just don’t think we would go through with it.”
“Go through with what?”
David said, “A nuclear counterattack.”
“Even if they cripple our nation?”
“Well… yes, even then. Because a nuclear reaction wouldn’t be proportional.”
Bill said, “Well, what about a good old-fashioned conventional military response? I mean, bullets don’t need satellites, right?”
David said, “Think about it this way — if they shut down all of our satellites like that, our government decision makers would be deaf, dumb, and blind. If they started a military attack, and let’s say they jammed long-range radio communication… I’m not saying that we wouldn’t respond with a counterattack against China if we had a clear picture of what was going on, but it takes a very long time for the US government to gather enough political support to attack a foreign country when we do have clear evidence. If all of a sudden, we just didn’t have any communications with our armed forces — if no one had electricity or phone lines — do you see our politicians having the confidence in the information they were getting to launch a World War Three-style military retaliation on China? I mean, until twenty-four hours ago, I would have told you that you were crazy to suggest any of this. I would have said, ‘Hell no, China won’t attack us.’ Think of all the trade they’d be giving up. It would be economic suicide. No one would believe it. Our technology has enabled hyperwar. But the decision-making process hasn’t gotten any faster. And this isn’t 1983. Our leaders haven’t been conditioned to expect a global nuclear war the way they were back in the eighties. If an attack happened then, we all knew who it was. The Soviets. The Evil Empire. But China isn’t really seen as an enemy today. Their cyberwar against us is mostly covert. Their military buildup is second-page news. People get cheap iPhones and low prices at Walmart, and trade with China is at an all-time high. I just don’t see a quick response — nuclear or conventional — as realistic if the picture isn’t clear. And that’s what this weapon does very well — it clouds the picture.”
No one said anything for a moment. People absorbed David’s thoughts. Some were no doubt struggling with the question of whether nuclear deterrence was good or bad.
Brooke cleared her throat and said, “Well, this conversation turned out to be scary. But I still have a question about the premise of this war plan. Let’s suppose that our politicians have neither the information nor the balls to launch a quick response back at an attacking superpower. I will try not to insert my hatred of all liberal politics here. Now, I am more disturbed by the threat of a cyberattack on our satellites than anyone. I mean, I rely on cyberoperations every day to do my job in Ft. Meade. But I fail to see why we still have reason to believe that this is a real threat. Why is a cyberattack on these satellites a game-changer? Can one of you Air Force guys please help me out here? Aren’t there already missiles that can shoot down satellites? And there are other ways to disrupt data centers, right? Why is this ARES such a big deal? What is new about this weapon compared to what they could have already done?”
David said, “Well, they can now control more satellites in a shorter time.”
Brooke shook her head and said, “No. That’s not enough of a leap for me. My point is, they could have done the same things through different means. Maybe it would be slower, but… what am I missing here?”
Most of the classroom looked at Lena, but she didn’t say anything back. Instead, the answer came from Henry.
He said to Lena, “Ohhhh. I see what’s going on here.”
Everyone stared, waiting for him to continue.
Henry said, “The worm has already been uploaded, hasn’t it? There is some sort of countdown in place.”
Eyes shot back to Lena. She nodded.
David then said, “That was it, wasn’t it? That’s how you knew they are really going to attack. That’s what this new intelligence was that your dead agent uncovered.”
“Part of it. Yes,” she said.
Some of them put it together and some didn’t. Someone whistled. A few swore. Up until now, David had still had his doubts. He hadn’t truly believed that China was going to attack the United States. Sure, there may have been intelligence that indicated they were thinking about it. But in his heart, David had believed that somehow this was all going to go away. Cooler heads would prevail. The Red Cell would just become some crazy what-if scenario planning session. David had harbored these thoughts since Tom had first told him about the project. But the evidence was now falling into place. The reasons for secrecy. The signs of war. Suddenly this all became very real.
He gazed outside, thinking about the implications of a war of this scale. He could see tropical thunderheads on the horizon, each with a white mist streaming down to the distant ocean. Storms approaching. Fitting.
Someone said, “What’s the countdown matter for?”
David sighed and said, “It means that they’re going to follow through. The satellite-killer is a first-strike weapon. And the countdown means they’ve already pulled the trigger. It’s true that they probably have missiles that could do this. They’ve had them for years, actually. But if there is a countdown, then that means that they have a plan in motion. And everything that we’re doing here matters a whole lot more.”
“Well, when does the countdown stop?” Henry asked.
Everyone in the room locked their eyes on Lena. She looked as if she wasn’t sure whether she should answer.
Finally, she said, “To be honest, we don’t know.”
One of the people a row down from David asked, “How do they know there is a countdown but not know when the program will activate?”
For a second, David thought he saw Bill look uneasy, like he wanted to say something important. But then Brooke said, “With worms, you can program them to have infinite countdowns. So this program can count down, look for a signal from an outside source, and then reset or execute depending on what inputs it receives. Imagine that this worm is an alarm clock that looks for a signal each day at seven a.m. If it receives the signal it is looking for, it will start beeping. If not, it will reset for another period of time. That is probably what is going on here. It happens a lot in cyberwarfare. We can detect when something is active, but not know exactly when it will execute.”