49 Griswold abolished Institute: In A. Whitney Griswold Paper, see letter, Frank Altschul to Griswold, Mar. 16, 1951, Box 126, folder 1154; Griswold, Memo to Provost on Research in International Relations at Yale, Jan. 9, 1951, and letter to Irving Olds, Apr. 19, 1959, both in Box 126, folder 1153.
50 “calls up memories”: “The Study of World Affairs,” New York Herald Tribune, Apr. 24, 1951.
50 “What kind of men”: Shils, “Approach to the Problem,” Edward Mead Earle Papers, Box 5, Chicago Univ. Atomic Energy Control Conference folder.
4: ON THE BEACH AT RAND
52 “operational research”: See P. M. S. Blackett, Studies of War (New York: Hill & Wang, 1962), Pt. 2; James Phinney Baxter, Scientists Against Time (Boston: Little, Brown, 1946); R. V. Jones, The Wizard War (New York: Coward, McCann & Geoghegan, 1978); Solly Zuckerman, From Apes to Warriors (New York: Harper & Row, 1978).
52 facts, theories, predictions: Blackett, ibid., p. 177.
52 U-boat campaign: Ibid., pp. 188, 213–15.
53 Similar techniques: Ibid., Pt. 2, passim.
54 “Hap” smile: Oral History Interview, Lt. Gen. Fred M. Dean, Feb. 25–26, 1978, pp. 67–68, Max. AFB.
54 “We must not”: Quoted in Michael S. Sherry, Preparing for the Next War: American Plans for Postwar Defense, 1941–45 (New Haven: Yale Univ. Press, 1977), p. 19.
55 flying lessons and license: Bio sheet attached to index of H. H. Arnold Papers, LoC.
55 Arnold background and Mitchelclass="underline" “General of the Army Henry Harley Arnold—Bio Sheet, February 13, 1946,” Carl Spaatz Papers, Box 256, Arnold folder, LoC.
55 “We’ve got to think”: Ibid.
56 “I believe the security”: Memo, Arnold to Von Karman, Nov. 7, 1944, H. H. Arnold Papers, Box 40, Scientific Advisory Group folder.
56 “The scientific discoveries”: “Abstract of Dr. Von Karman’s Report to General of the Army H. H. Arnold, Toward New Horizons,’” Dec. 14, 1945, pp. 1–2, Carl Spaatz Papers, Box 58.
56 “be advised continuously”: Von Karman, “Toward New Horizons, Vol. II-I, Where We Stand,” Aug. 22, 1945, p. 88, loc. cit.
56 “a permanent interest”: Von Karman, “Toward New Horizons, Vol. I, Science, The Key to Air Supremacy,” p. 114, loc. cit.
56 “a nucleus”: “Abstract of… Toward New Horizons,’” p. 32, loc. cit.
57 B-29 Special Project: “A Summary of Activities, Office of Dr. Edward L. Bowles… April 1942 through August 1945,” Nov. 1, 1945, Edward Bowles Papers, Box 1, folder #1 on Summary of Activities, HSTL.
58 Hamilton Field lunch: Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press, 1966), pp. 41–42; and interviews.
59 “founding fathers”: Ibid.
59 $10 million: R. D. Specht, RAND: A Personal View of Its History, RAND P-1601, Oct. 23, 1958, pp. 7–8.
59 LeMay R&D director: Smith, op. cit., p. 46.
59 R&D and Von Karman report: Von Karman, “Toward New Horizons, Vol. I,” p. 129, loc. cit.
59 “Project RAND is”: Specht, op. cit., p. 2.
59 contract MX-791: R. D. Little, The History of Air Force Participation in the Atomic Energy Program, 1943–53, Vol. II (Washington, D.C.: USAF Historical Division, 1958), p. 545.
59 rockets and ramjets: Specht, op. cit., p. 6.
60 “would inflame”: Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship, RAND SM-11827, May 2, 1946.
60 Few paid attention: J. D. Williams, An Overview of RAND, RAND D-10053, May 14, 1962, p. 13 (provided to author).
60 Douglas connection cracking: Letters, Bowles to Arnold, Sept. 5, 11 and 15, 1946, H. H. Arnold Papers, Box 214A, Correspondence 1946–1948 between Gen. Arnold and Dr. E. L. Bowles folder.
61 “when we are”: Letter, Spaatz to Donald Douglas, Feb. 10, 1948, Carl Spaatz Papers, Box 252, Chief of Staff Correspondence, Feb. 8–13, 1948, folder.
61 Wells Fargo Bank: Smith, op. cit., pp. 70, 72.
61 RAND and Ford Foundation: Ibid., pp. 70–72; and interviews.
61 May 14, 1948: Little, op. cit., p. 545.
62 numbered 150: Conference of Social Scientists, RAND R-106, June 9, 1948, p. 2.
62 “I have been”: Memo, Joseph Goldsen to Social Science Department, “20 Years at RAND,” May 23, 1968, Adam Yarmolinsky Papers, Box 9, RAND Corp. Mtgs., 1967–69, JFKL.
63 fifth employee: “Profile… ,” RANDom News [in-house newsletter], May 1956 (provided to author).
63 von Neumann, “Mr. Miracle,” Communism: Robert Jungk, Brighter Than a Thousand Suns (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1958), pp. 298–99.
63 “I think”: Letter, von Neumann to Lewis Strauss, Nov. 21, 1951, John von Neumann Papers, Box 22, Strauss folder, LoC.
64 ENIAC and MANIAC: Jungk, op. cit., pp. 298–300.
64 Williams thrilled: Letter, Williams to von Neumann, Dec. 16, 1947, John von Neumann Papers, Box 15, RAND folder.
64 von Neumann and poker: John McDonald, Strategy in Poker, Business and War (New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1950), pp. 50–83.
67 Williams book: John D. Williams, The Compleat Strategyst (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1954).
68 LeMay meeting: Smith, op. cit., p. 61.
72 conference attendants: Conference of Social Scientists, loc. cit., pp. xvii–ix.
72 “to discuss”: Ibid., p. vii.
72 “military worth”: Ibid., p. 7.
72 “I assume”: Ibid., p. 3.
5: THE SUPERBOMB
74 RAND and Q: R. D. Little, The History of Air Force Participation in the Atomic Energy Program, 1943–53, Vol. II (Washington, D.C.: USAF Historical Division, 1958).
77 thousands of square feet: See many of the RE-8 reports in Records of the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey, 1j and 3b, NA/MMB.
77 50 and 300 square miles: Bernard Brodie, “Air National Strategies and Policies As Related to Current National Capabilities,” lecture, Air War College, Apr. 16, 1953, p. 2, Max. AFB; and author’s own calculations.
77 fifty-five H-bombs, fifty cities, 35 million, 10 or 11 million: Bernard Brodie, “Changing Capabilities and War Objectives,” lecture, Air War College, Apr. 17, 1952, p. 19, Bernard Brodie Papers, Box 12, UCLA.
79 H-bomb could miss targets: Brodie, Ibid., pp. 11, 18.