Dan nodded, feeling a chill. This wasn’t usual. “What are they buying it with?”
“U.S. long-term debt. At a sizable discount. So the Treasury’s happy.”
“Unloading debt, which we can nationalize, and taking grain and oil in return,” Rongstad murmured. “Also copper, aluminum, manganese, and tin. And they’ve cut back or restricted access to their own strategic exports — steel, rare earths, tungsten. We had DIA do a historical study. Almost every war we have data for was preceded by a stockpile buildup by the aggressor.”
The next slide zoomed in to Southeast Asia. Niles spoke to the screen. “Fortunately for us, their balls are hanging down where it’s easy to whack them. The energy corridors, from the Gulf, across the Indian Ocean, and into the South China Sea.” Dan noted islands or bases hopscotched through the narrow seas: the Spratly Islands, the Paracels, Kra, the Cocos, Myanmar, Bangladesh.
“Mahan,” he said.
“Not coaling stations, but the same idea. The big difference is that their allies are developing states, going along for the money. Or because they’re already on our shit list for being dictatorships. While our allies have major regional navies of their own, especially India and Japan.”
“And Korea,” Dan put in.
“Right, you have this soft spot for them.”
He nodded. “Good seamen. Good fighters.”
“So are the Japanese. The Indians, well, that’s yet to be seen. The couple times their army’s gone up against the Chinese, it hasn’t been impressive.” Niles stepped back and turned the screen off. “But the balance of forces can look different depending on where you stand. If you ask me, is war imminent? I’d say no. If you ask me, is it possible? I’d say… maybe.”
A second premonitory shiver gripped Dan’s spine. “Is there some way I can help, Admiral?”
“I have to make some tough decisions. First. You ran the SATYRE exercises, right? Antisubmarine joint exercises?” Dan nodded. “And served with the Koreans. So you know their capabilities as well as anybody. Set any personal feelings aside, and give me an objective call?”
“Yessir. I’ll try.”
Rongstad skated a single sheet of paper across the glass. Dan took it in: a list. “If we provided them with a supplemental arms package — additional antisub aircraft, the new sonobuoys, upgraded torpedoes — could they hold the Korea Strait against Chinese submarines?”
Dan sat back in the chair, taking a second to process force levels, effectiveness, the geography of the strait. “Sir, in terms of antisubmarine skill sets, they rank near the top. Right now, they could seriously attrite any attempt to force the passage. But they’re limited on platforms, and they’ve got two coasts to cover. Plus Pusan, if we have to reinforce or supply them.”
“And?” Niles said.
“I’d say, if the Chinese try to ram through, there’d be a lot of floating debris. From both sides. Anything you can do to beef up the Koreans, they’ll put to good use.” He looked down the list again. “ASW aircraft and updated sonobuoys, that’d be where to put short-term money. The rest of this — it’d take years to get them air-independent propulsion. That’s a nice-to-have somebody added up the line.”
“About what Jack told you he’d say,” Rongstad murmured.
Dan was about to ask if he meant Jack Byrne when Niles nodded. “Okay, makes sense. By the way, the Taiwanese have requested a supplemental for air defense. They’re seeing the same trends. Specifically, a buildup of ballistic missiles and attack aircraft across the strait. That shifts air power in the PRC’s favor.
“Second question. How effective are the Ticonderogas as antimissile platforms? Can I count on them to screen a carrier task group?”
This was a loaded question. How he answered might determine what happened to him from here on out. And for a moment he was tempted to obfuscate. He shook it off. “Sir, I have to say, in their current state of development, the upgraded Aegis and the new missile are marginal for the intended mission. We managed two hits out of four firings, but we got lucky.”
Both Rongstad and Niles looked unhappy, and more so as he gave statistics. Finally Niles held up a broad hand. “I’ve heard enough. Malon, anything to add?”
“No sir, he’s given you the view from the trenches. The Block 4’s at the shaky limit of what you can do with that airframe.”
“So we need to speed up the replacement program. Specifically, the two-color seeker head. I’ve got a captain in charge out there at Raytheon, but he’s not cutting it. Dan, we didn’t see eye to eye at Joint Cruise Missiles, but you nailed that problem with the cable cutter that didn’t cut. The one that kept shredding the rudder, till the missile went down. Maybe we need a new broom.” He exchanged glances with the director, who nodded slightly. Niles turned to Dan. “Want to go to Tucson? Take over the SM-3, get it back on the rails?”
Dan swallowed. “Well, I’m… I’d have to think about that, whether I could do a better job.”
Niles looked away. Murmured, “There might be a star in it for you. If you came through in time to be of use.”
Dan gave it a couple seconds, as much to savor the offer, and regret it, as to give the impression he was considering it. Because Niles didn’t tease. If he said there was a promotion in it, there would be. “I wouldn’t do it for that reason, sir. But I’m not sure it would be the best use of my talents.”
Niles scowled. “That’s a weasel answer, Lenson. I didn’t have you pegged for a fucking weasel.”
“Sorry, sir.”
“Lay it on the table.”
“I’ve got a crew, and a wardroom, I just managed to glue back together, mostly, after they took a serious morale hit.” He gave it a beat, then added, “I’m still, on paper, CO of USS Savo Island. I’d rather stay there, Admiral.”
Niles looked away for a second. Then nodded, once. “You took one for the Navy, after the assassination thing. So I’m inclined to let you have what you ask for. As long as you understand what you’re passing up.”
He waited, but Dan didn’t see the necessity for saying anything more. Though he was wondering if he’d just shot himself in the foot in a truly historic way.
At last Niles clicked back to the CNO logo. The next slides were Joint Staff marked, not Navy. They were classified top secret SPECAT, and bore the code names Satchel Advantage/Iron Noose.
“Okay, we’ve gamed this to death up at Newport. If the worst comes to the worst, we expect any breakthrough attempt to take place via Taiwan. That’s where they have the best claim, and holding the center of the chain gives them access to the whole Pacific.”
“The Army’s not gonna be in this fight,” Rongstad said. “Us and the Air Force, along with the Taiwanese and possibly Japanese sea and air forces, will try to hold them off the island. At the same time, we extend the war horizontally by a complete energy and raw-materials blockade. Another possible step will be conventional strikes on the seaports and missile launching points along the coast opposite Taiwan. We hope to limit the conflict, keep it a naval-slash-air war.”
“We couldn’t win a land war with China in 1953. We sure can’t win one now,” Niles murmured.
Dan wondered how thoroughly they’d gamed the Red Team portion of the exercise, and whether they expected a nation with a nuclear deterrent to take strikes on its homeland lying down. “But what if — I mean, suppose the Chinese decide to, um, extend the war horizontally too? Maybe by letting the North Koreans off the leash?”