Our research collaborators, using a technique called content analysis, analyzed and coded the explanations that the Terman participants had written. That is, trained reviewers evaluated to what extent each person was a catastrophizer in early adulthood, based on criteria such as the vocabulary they used. They reviewed over 3,000 such explanations from almost 1,200 participants, then shipped the evaluations to us, and we conducted the complicated statistical analyses needed to determine if there was a connection between a catastrophic outlook and longevity.
Catastrophizing and Mortality
The results were clear. The catastrophizers died sooner. The difference was especially large for the men.25 This held true even if we excluded anyone who died in the five years immediately following the assessment, ruling out the possibility that a participant was already seriously ill and influenced by his or her predicament.
Catastrophizers generally have superficial relationships with other people and cannot face their problems.26 Fidgety Philip was one of the worst Terman study catastrophizers. He viewed his misfortunes as pervasive in their effects—seeing his character flaws as qualities that permeated every aspect of his life. (He described his impulsiveness and inability to control his alcohol use as being his two biggest faults.) Like Karen, Philip interpreted each of his misfortunes as bigger than life. He died of a heart attack before his sixty-fifth birthday.
Catastrophizing-Related Ailments: How They Died
Why did so many of the catastrophizers die young? We found a relevant source of information in the death certificates. We grouped the causes of death into four categories: cardiovascular disease (heart attacks or strokes), cancer, accidents or violence (homicide, suicide, car crashes, and so on), and “other” causes, such as infection.
Catastrophizers were clearly more likely to die from accidents or violence. But they were only slightly more likely (than noncatastrophizers) to die from the various other causes of death. So we had a good clue as to why catastrophizing was especially deadly—it’s dangerous. People who believe that having one significant problem is a sign that lots and lots of bad things will follow put themselves onto risky paths, especially in terms of the likelihood of a violent early death. They blamed themselves for far too much and they suffered the consequences. This was poignantly true in Karen’s case. She took her own life while still in her thirties.
Yet not all catastrophizers, nor even most catastrophizers, faced the fate of an early demise. Many improved their viewpoint over time and then changed the direction of their lives. Nevertheless, how people explained the world around them turned out to be one predictive piece in the longevity puzzle.
Below, circle the response that best reflects how true each statement is of you.
1. I worry that life will get worse and worse.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
2. When I look at the state of the world, I see opportunities everywhere.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
3. I have a magic touch—when I get involved in an issue everything seems to work out fine.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
4. I routinely blow my chances and mess up my opportunities.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
5. I fear that the worst is going to happen.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
6. When I mess up on little things, other things start falling apart.
5 – very accurate
4 – moderately accurate
3 – neither accurate nor inaccurate
2 – moderately inaccurate
1 – very inaccurate
Scoring: For statements 2 and 3, which are phrased in the opposite direction, reverse your scores (that is, if you gave yourself a 5 change it to a 1, change a 4 to a 2, leave 3 as it is, change a 2 to a 4, and replace a 1 with a 5. Now add up your score—it should fall between 6 and 30. An average score on this catastrophizing scale is about 12 or 13; those who are particularly mellow about mishaps will score below 10, whereas definite catastrophizers will score at 24 or higher.
The Mysterious End of Douglas Kelley
Douglas McGlashan Kelley—one of the publicly identified Terman participants—was also one of the most interesting and baffling. Kelley grew up in San Francisco, was discovered by Dr. Terman for his study, and went to college at the University of California in Berkeley. He became a well-known psychiatrist and a Berkeley professor. He was an energetic and well-adjusted child, though less conscientious than most. Although Kelley was empathic and sensitive to the feelings of others, there was nothing remarkable in his childhood that would portend the dramatic turns his life would take.
Douglas Kelley loved jokes and magic. In fact, in 1941 Time magazine featured him in an article as a psychiatrist who taught parlor tricks to his patients. In 1942, at age twenty-nine, Dr. Kelley was called to the U.S. Army Medical Corps and sent to Europe to serve as a forensic psychiatrist, his specialty. When the war ended, he received a unique assignment. He was attached to the International Military Tribunal in Nuremberg, Germany, where Nazi war crimes trials were being prepared. His job was to study some of the highest-ranking captured Nazis, including the foreign minister Joachim von Ribbentrop, and Hermann Goering, one of the most infamous and powerful Nazis.
Dr. Kelley administered psychological assessments such as the Rorschach inkblot test to the imprisoned Nazi leaders. Kelley was a Rorschach expert. Fascinated with their views, he also spent many hours talking with them, trying to understand how they could commit such awful crimes against fellow human beings. He decided that the Nazi leaders were mentally competent to stand trial. Eventually Von Ribbentrop and other top Nazis were hanged, but Hermann Goering secretly swallowed potassium cyanide the night before he was to be executed.
After the war Douglas Kelley became a criminologist as well as a professor. He testified in court about the mental state of those accused of crimes, similar to his work in Nuremberg. He even broke new ground in the psychiatric use of drugs like Sodium Pentothal as a potential truth serum. Dr. Kelley wrote a book called 22 Cells in Nuremberg . Oddly, he also collected Nazi memorabilia.
On New Year’s Day in 1958, Douglas Kelley suddenly killed himself at home in front of his family. He was just forty-five years old. His method of suicide was striking: Dr. Kelley killed himself by swallowing cyanide. The next day, the New York Times quoted police as saying that the poison capsule “was one of several souvenir capsules Dr. Kelley had brought home from Nuremberg. The capsules had been discovered on Hermann W. Goering, who committed suicide by taking a similar capsule on October 16, 1946, two hours before he was scheduled to be hanged.”27
25
To read more about our initial study of catastrophizing, see C. Peterson, M. E. P. Seligman, K. H. Yurko, L. R. Martin, and H. S. Friedman, “Catastrophizing and Untimely Death,”
26
For more information on the risks associated with catastrophizing, see C. Peterson, S. F. Maier, and M. E. P. Seligman,
27
For a brief biography of Dr. Douglas Kelley, see University of California: